MLB Daily Grind Down May 24th Part 2
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
| Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great American Ball Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Scott Feldman – (4-3), 2.19 ERA, 7.15 K/9, 1.16 WHIP | Bronson Arroyo – (3-4), 3.76 ERA, 5.17 K/9, 1.14 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (6-39 H/AB) 0.154 BA-A, 10.26 K%, 0.41 OPS-A | PvB | (35-158 H/AB) 0.222 BA-A, 15.19 K%, 0.677 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 3.22 ERA, 3 HRA, 6 K/9, 1.433 WHIP | HOME | (3-1), 2.94 ERA, 2 HRA, 7 K/9, 1.099 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
CHC BvP  | CHC vs R | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored CIN -150
Pitchers
- Home Bronson Arroyo is the next in line of players going today who have solid ERA and WHIPs but low Ks. Since there are only a few big guns going tonight, I think investing in one of these players would be the wise option since those players will be swallowed with overlay. I am not sure Arroyo can keep up his ERA of 3.28 on the year which is a full lower than his career average. He is 36 so this jump is not based off of him developing unless he is a really slow learner. Still he draws the Cubs a very poor road team and a poor team in general. CHC is batting .217 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .232 over the last 7 days. Their batters have the 19th most Ks in league. In Play
- Away Scott Feldman numbers look good but like the Cubs batters he is not the same player on the road and his road ERA is almost a full 2 points higher than his home ERA. CIN is a great home team so even though he has a 2.19 ERA on the year, you cannot play him today unless you really like to gamble. CIN is batting .265 at home, .251 versus right-handers, and .275 over the last 7 days with 11 HRs. Their batters have the 11th most Ks in the league. Avoid
Batters
- Home Joey Votto is batting .382 versu right-handed pitching and is matchup proof. The same can be said about Shin-Soo Choo and his .361 average versus right-handers. Choo is also batting .355 at home. Joey Votto has been super hot producing 40.75 fp over the last 7 days. Jay Bruce has been very hot also with 27 fp. He also gains the lefty/righty splits in his favor.
- Away Luis Valbuena is 3-8 versus Arroyo. All 3 hits were for extra bases. David DeJesus has been the hottest Cub and is batting .320 versus right-handers
Atlanta at NY Mets
| Atlanta | NY Mets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citi Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Kris Medlen – (1-5), 3.44 ERA, 6.04 K/9, 1.41 WHIP | Jeremy Hefner – (0-5), 5 ERA, 6 K/9, 1.33 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (15-88 H/AB) 0.17 BA-A, 21.59 K%, 0.534 OPS-A | PvB | (9-19 H/AB) 0.474 BA-A, 0 K%, 1.316 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-3), 3.82 ERA, 6 HRA, 5 K/9, 1.435 WHIP | HOME | (0-2), 3.52 ERA, 4 HRA, 5.5 K/9, 1.261 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| ATL BvP | ATL vs R | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored ATL -160
Pitchers
- Home Jeremy Hefner has actually been okay at home with a 3.52 ERA. Normally when a player plays the Braves you expect to get a boost in their K/9 but Hefner only has 30 Ks after 9 starts so I do not know how much that will help. He did have 8 Ks versus the Marlins early this year. The fact remains that he is a massive dog and has limited upside. ATL is batting .240 on the road, .248 versus right-handers, and .273 over the last 7 days. Their batters have the 2nd most Ks in the league. Outside of a wild GPP play, Avoid
- Away Kris Medlen is a slightly worse pitcher on the road but his road ERA is comparable to Hefner’s home ERA. He likewise has limited K/9 upside but is the nice size favorite, which makes him a safer bet and playable versus a struggling Mets team. NYM is batting .211 at home, .226 versus right-handers, and .228 over the last 7 days. Their batters have the 8th most Ks in the league. In Play
Batters
- Home Rick Ankiel and Daniel Murphy are hot producing 20 fp both are batting over .300 versus right-handers. Ike Davis has 1 HR versus Medlen in 15 AB.
- Away The BvPs are low but ATL as a team is 9-19 versus Hefner. Freddie Freeman is 2-4 versus him with 1 HR. The left-handed bats are in play here. The OU is low so I would not over do it though.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
| Pittsburgh | Milwaukee | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| A.J. Burnett – (3-4), 2.73 ERA, 11.57 K/9, 1.07 WHIP | Marco Estrada – (3-2), 5.32 ERA, 8.76 K/9, 1.36 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (44-171 H/AB) 0.257 BA-A, 21.05 K%, 0.649 OPS-A | PvB | (29-142 H/AB) 0.204 BA-A, 25.35 K%, 0.613 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 2.76 ERA, 0 HRA, 12.1 K/9, 1.469 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 9.31 ERA, 8 HRA, 10.7 K/9, 1.914 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PIT BvP | PIT vs R | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored MIL -108
Pitchers
- Home Marco Estrada 5.44 ERA is even worse at home this where it sky rockets to a 9.31. I am shaking my head at Vegas with the low OU in this game and I cannot see how he is listed as the favorite. PIT is batting .242 on the road, .245 versus right-handers, .238 over the last 7 days. Their batters have the 14th most Ks in the league. Unless you trust Vegas more than me, Avoid
- Away A.J. Burnett has a 11.29 K/9 on the year. His 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP are not bad either. He has been steady no matter where he has pitched. His road ERA is a slightly worse 2.76. I know he is the dog and MIL is a tough home team but he has huge upside and is pitching fantastic. MIL is batting .279 at home, .258 versus right-handers, and .261 over the last 7 days. Their batter have the 17th most Ks in the league. Target
Batters
- Home Ryan Braun is 6-14 versus Burnett but with 0 XBH. Norichika Aoki is 5-10 with 3 2B versus him. Both players have been teetering on a hot streak with 19.5 and 18 fp over the last 7 days. Aramis Ramirez has been hot producing 21.75 fp and is batting .417 versus right-handed pitching and .387 at home.
- Away Andrew McCuthchen is 7-22 versus Estrada with 2 HRs. He is very hot also with 31.25 fp over the last 7 days. Estrada has ran into trouble with right-handed bats this year. He has held left-handers to a .174 average so I would avoid the trap of taking the tradition righty/lefty matchup since most of PIT lefties are slumping right now.
Miami at Chicago White Sox
| Miami | Chicago White Sox | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Cellular Field | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Tom Koehler – (0-1), 3.31 ERA, 5.59 K/9, 1.16 WHIP | John Danks – | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (26-98 H/AB) 0.265 BA-A, 19.39 K%, 0.714 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 4.38 ERA, 1 HRA, 3.6 K/9, 1.378 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIA BvP | MIA vs L | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored CHW -185
Pitchers
- Home John Danks seems very playable today versus a week MIA . This si first start of the year so he carries some risk but he also carries a very low price tag, MIA is batting .230 on the road, .214 versus left-handers, and .205 over the last 7 days. Target
- Away Tom Koehler was pretty good in his first spot start. He is a huge underdog on the road and I do not expect for him to get the win even if he does pitch well. CHW is batting .286 at home, .238 versus right-handers, and .258 over the last 7 days. AvoiD
Batters
- Home Gentlemen start your CHW stacks. Koehler is not that good . A hot Alex Rios is playable either way.
- Away I cannot recommend anyone from this team. No one is producing so it is best to avoid them all together.
LA Angels at Kansas City
| LA Angels | Kansas City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauffman Stadium | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Jason Vargas – (2-3), 4.03 ERA, 5.99 K/9, 1.46 WHIP | Luis Mendoza – (1-2), 6 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 1.37 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (22-103 H/AB) 0.214 BA-A, 15.53 K%, 0.728 OPS-A | PvB | (9-28 H/AB) 0.321 BA-A, 21.43 K%, 0.75 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 5.16 ERA, 2 HRA, 7.1 K/9, 1.809 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 12.1 ERA, 3 HRA, 4.7 K/9, 1.862 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAA BvP | LAA vs R | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored LAA -120
Pitchers
- Home Luis Mendoza has 12.10 ERA at home this year. While one can always argue the validity of splits, this number is too large for me to question. His low K/9 plus the fact that the LAA offense is clicking are far too much for me to conceder him. LAA is batting .234 on the road, .269 versus right-handers, and .282 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away Jason Vargas success has all come at home. He has been a horrible pitcher on the road with a 5.16 ERA. When too aces meet, you say which player will pitch the best to get the win. With these two guys, you ask yourself which one will pitch the worst to get the loss. KAN is batting .261, .286 versus left-handers, and .257 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Billy Butler is 8-16 with 3 HRs versus Varags. He gains the traditional splits in his favor today. Alex Gordan has been hot producing 20.5 fp over the last week. I like Jeff Francoeur versus the left-hander also.
- Away The BvPs are low but the team owns a .321 BAA versus Mendoza consider everyone playable. Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, Alberto Callaspo, Josh Hamilton, and Howie Kendrick have all been hot.
