NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 11th - Page 2
Toronto at Houston
| Toronto | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 202.0 |  | Vegas | 202.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 8.5 | Spread | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 92.59 | Pace | 101.11 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 27 | 18 | 12 | 25 | 18 | Season | 5 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 8 | |
| Last10 | 27 | 18 | 12 | 25 | 18 | Last10 | 5 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 8 | |
| Lowry-DeRozan-Gay-Johnson-Valanciunas | Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Asik-Howard | |||||||||||
Toronto
The Raptors are in the bottom 10 in the league in both pace of play (92) and points scored per game (95). They also have a starting five that all average between 20-30 FP’s per game which means the production is spread out and fairly unpredictable where it’s going to come from each night. The good news for the Raptors is that they are playing the Rockets who are one of the fastest paced teams in the league. This should give the Raptors some easy looks if they can push the tempo and it will also give them a few more possessions than usual. The Rockets are also dealing with a bug that is going around the locker room so they could tire quickly and get beat in transition.
Players to Target
- Rudy Gay – I know that he is one of the most frustrating fantasy players out there, but the matchup really favors him tonight. The Rockets are below average against every position except for SF, but Parsons is banged up and likely won’t be at 100%. Gay can do a lot of things on the court, his problem is that he often disengages himself. Hopefully that won’t happen in an uptempo game tonight.
Houston
The Rockets are playing with a very quick pace (101) and are averaging 105 points per game which is the 5th highest in the NBA. It sounds like Chandler Parsons is going to give it a go tonight, but he’s not a recommended option with him being less than 100%. James Harden is also a bit hobbled with sore feet and a cold and will likely be guarded by Rudy Gay tonight. I’m fading Harden as well.
Players to Target
- Dwight Howard – Even though the Raptors are ranked 8th against opposing Centers this season, Dwight is bigger and faster than Jonas Valanciunas and with the injuries to the Rockets other players, I think this is the night that they will pound it in to Dwight and let him go to work. Dwight loses value on sites that negate for missed shots, but is definitely in play everywhere else.
- Patrick Beverley – Another matchup with a bad DvP ranking, but the DvP rankings shouldn’t be used as your only source of research. You have to consider all of the other factors as well. The fact is that Beverley’s price is way too low across the board. Now that he is healthy and starting, he is seeing 35+ minutes and has shown that he can really put up some big fantasy games. Love the value here tonight and I think he’s a must play on FD and DK.
Denver at Utah
| Denver | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 196.5 |  | Vegas | 196.5 | |||||||
| Spread | -3.0 | Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Pace | 101.00 | Pace | 96.15 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 3 | 21 | 30 | 11 | 14 | Season | 22 | 20 | 9 | 28 | 29 | |
| Last10 | 3 | 21 | 30 | 11 | 14 | Last10 | 22 | 20 | 9 | 28 | 29 | |
| Lawson-Foye-Hamilton-Faried-McGee | Tinsley-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter | |||||||||||
Denver
Tonight’s game is going to be a battle of two struggling teams. The Nuggets are only 1-4 this season and will be without their Center Javale McGee as he is out with an injury. The good news for the Nuggets is that Wilson Chandler is going to make his debut tonight. Chandler won’t have any fantasy value tonight, but will once he gets a steady stream of minutes and some gametime under his belt.
The Nuggets have a nice matchup with the Jazz and I don’t think we have to worry about a blowout in this one. Utah has always been a team that plays well at home and it’s not like the Nuggets have looked great this season anyway. The value plays of Randy Foye and Jordan Hamilton are still in play even with Chandler back and Ty Lawson should be able to find success against the very non-intimidating backcourt of Tinsley and Lucas.
Players to Target
- J.J. Hickson – Over the years, Hickson has been a very capable big man that has always played well in spot starts. For whatever reason, he can’t match that kind of production as an every night starter, but when he fills in, he almost always plays well. I think he has great value tonight against this Jazz team that is below average defensively.
Utah
The Jazz are coming off of a few tough road games in which they were blown out by halftime. I expect them to bounce back nicely tonight now that they are back at home and I actually think they will get their first win of the season tonight. The Jazz are not a high scoring team, but they do have a lot of fantasy options in Hayward, Kanter, Favors, and Burks.
The Nuggets are a fast paced team that doesn’t defend well so give the Jazz a bump tonight. The Nuggets have struggled against every position this season and I think everyone on the Jazz is in play except for the PG’s. You shouldn’t be targeting Tinsley or Lucas as they have not played well. I expect both wings of Hayward and Burks to play well, but my favorite two plays here are the talented young big men.
Players to Target
- Enes Kanter – I have Kanter as a slightly better play than Favors just because he is cheaper, but they are both in play tonight against a weak frontcourt of the Nuggets. Hickson has never been a good defender and Faried just doesn’t look like the same player as he has in the past. The Nuggets are ranked 28th and 29th against PF’s and Centers, so it may not be a bad idea to get them both in your lineups.
- Derrick Favors – Favors hasn’t played great since the 2nd game of the season. A lot of that has to do with the Jazz playing poorly as a whole. It’s hard to play well when your team is turning the ball over and gets down by 20 every night. I expect him to bounce back nicely in this one though and put up his 3rd double-double of the season.
Detroit at Portland
| Detroit | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 197.0 |  | Vegas | 197.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 96.86 | Pace | 95.75 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 17 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | Season | 23 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 24 | |
| Last10 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | Last10 | 23 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 24 | |
| Jennings-Billups-Smith-Monroe-Drummond | Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez | |||||||||||
Detroit
Detroit pushed the pace in their first couple of games, but have really slowed it down since then and now rank in the bottom two-thirds of the league in both pace of play and scoring. The Pistons have 4 starters that can all top 30 FP’s on any given night which really hurts their individual value. There are only so many shots to go around and with the Pistons playing at a slow pace, that number is even more limited.
However, if you do want to target anyone from the Pistons tonight, I think Andre Drummond is the way to go. The Blazers are ranked 28th against opposing Centers and Drummond should be able to help off of his man and come over for some weak side blocks.
Portland
The Blazers have a lot of talent on their young team and they have 4 fantasy options that all make decent plays when the matchup is right. The Pistons DvP rankings make it very easy on us. They rank in the top 5 against SG’s and PF’s and they rank in the bottom 8 against PG’s, SF’s, and Centers. I don’t love the matchup for Robin Lopez though. That leaves us with Lillard and Batum, both of whom make solid plays tonight.
Players to Target
- Damian Lillard – Lillard will be facing Brandon Jennings tonight who has never been known for his defense. The Pistons rank 23rd against opposing PG’s and Lillard should be able to take advantage of that. One of my favorite part about Lillard’s game is his ability to pad the stat sheet with more than just points and assists. The other night he almost had a triple-double.
- Nicolas Batum – Batum has high variance when you talk about his fantasy output from game to game. He can range anywhere from 20-50 FP’s any night. This hurts his value in H2H and 50/50 games, but makes him a great GPP play. Batum always plays well at home and the matchup against Josh Smith is above average.
Minnesota at L.A.Clippers
| Minnesota | L.A.Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 208.0 |  | Vegas | 208.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 7.0 | Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Pace | 102.48 | Pace | 99.84 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 16 | 16 | 10 | 18 | 27 | Season | 6 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 26 | |
| Last10 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 18 | 27 | Last10 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 26 | |
| Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic | Paul-Redick-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan | |||||||||||
Minnesota
This is the game that everyone should be excited for. We have two of the three highest scoring teams in the league facing off in what should be a shootout. Vegas has the total of this game set at 210 which is 5 points higher than the next highest total. Games like these provide us with a multitude of fantasy options. While it can be tempting to stack a game like this, I generally don’t recommend taking more than 2 players from any single team. The risk is just too great.
The Clippers have not been a very good team defensively and there are 4 players from the Wolves that should be on your radar. Both Nikola Pekovic and Ricky Rubio are very interesting plays, but if I had to narrow it down to my top two favorites, it would have to be the K-squared (aka the Kevins).
Players to Target
- Kevin Love – Love is playing at an incredible level right now that may only be topped by Chris Paul and the stats that he is putting up. Love is averaging 27, 14, and 5. Those numbers would probably be even higher too if they Lakers would have shown up to play last night. Love has a great matchup and should dominate in what should be an extremely high scoring game.
- Kevin Martin – No one can guard this guy right now. He’s scored at least 23 actual points in 5 straight games. He is basically covering his value just on points alone. Even though his price tag has been creeping up, you have to love his upside in a matchup against J.J. Redick.
L.A.Clippers
Last but not least we have the Clippers who own the title of being the highest scoring team in the league at 110 points per game. Chris Paul just can’t be stopped. He leads the league in touches per game with 104. When the Clippers are scoring, you can be assured that Paul had something to do with it because he has the ball in his hands more than anyone in the NBA.
Looking at the DvP rankings, your first thought would be to stay away from Paul and Griffin, but I’m going in the opposite direction. These are the two that I will be targeting the most.
Players to Target
- Chris Paul – Paul’s price has increased across the board, but it’s still at a very playable level. With the amount of touches he is getting per game and the pace at which they are playing, he is a threat to top 50 FP’s every night. Rubio is not a great on ball defender and doesn’t have the quickness to keep CP3 in front of him. Rubio is also turnover prone and CP3 could be in line for 5+ steals.
- Blake Griffin – In past meetings between Love and Griffin, both of them have played well. Griffin is averaging close to 40 FP’s against Love and I think he will play well in tonight’s game. He will try to go toe to toe with Love and is a much cheaper option.