NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Three - Page 4

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-19 00:32:50

Indianapolis at San Francisco

Indianapolis Colts						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 4:25PM ET						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10.5	46	17.75				-10.5	46	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	20.5	18	19	5		Off.	18.5	24	18	17
Def.	20.5	14	16	29		Def.	28.5	27	10	24
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Luck	22.28	22.28	20	18.80		Kaepernick	19.73	19.73	18	18.37
Richardson	9.55	9.55	28	25.20		Gore	8.50	8.50	17	17.35
Wayne	13.35	13.35	12	26.60		Boldin	17.25	17.25	15	29.05
Fleener	8.05	8.05	13	8.65		Davis	14.15	14.15	22	13.85

San Francisco

• At this point in the Grind Down, my hands are cramping up, but I’m going to play through the pain! Colin Kaepernick had a rough week last week against the Seahawks, but that only helps his fantasy value this week because if anything, that bad game lowered his price tag. Kaep and the Niners should really take advantage of this defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league against every position. Kaep will be a top 3 QB this week. Rating = 9
• Frank Gore was very quiet last week only registering 9 carries. That was more from the nature of the game than anything else though. Expect him to get back to around 15-20 touches this week against a below average defense. Gore should make value pretty easy this week and is a safe play in 50/50’s. Rating = 6
• Anquan Boldin is the lone receiver with any fantasy value for the Niners. He has been very good so far and I think he makes a great play again this week. His value will rise even more if Vernon Davis doesn’t end up playing.
• Vernon Davis is currently day to day but he seems confident that he will be ready by Sunday. If so, he is a top 5 TE option this week. Rating = 7

Indianapolis

• Andrew Luck is usually on my radar each week, but I’m not in love with his matchup against this Niners defense that is going to be angry after getting blown out by the Seahawks. Luck can make plays with his feet, but why take a QB against a top 5 defense if you don’t have to? Rating = 4
• So the Colts traded for Trent Richardson. I definitely didn’t see that one coming. I’m sure Ahmad Bradshaw isn’t too excited right now. I’m not sure if Richardson is going to be able to play this week or not, so I will update you later in the week. Rating = TBD
• The Niners haven’t been great defensively this season, but they have had two very tough opponents in the Packers and Seahawks. I think they play a good game defensively and it’s safe to avoid the WR’s for the Colts.
• One guy that may carry some value on the Colts is Coby Fleener. Luck targeted him quite a bit last week and news just came out that Dwayne Allen is going to be out for the season. Rating = 5

Buffalo at NY Jets

Buffalo Bills						New York Jets
Sun – 4:25PM ET						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1.5	39	18.75				-1.5	39	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	22.5	16	23	4		Off.	14.0	29	25	12
Def.	23.0	15	13	30		Def.	15.0	3	6	4
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Manuel	16.22	16.22	5	11.30		Smith	11.60	11.60	16	16.89
Spiller	10.45	10.45	3	9.20		Ivory	3.35	3.35	20	18.65
Johnson	16.25	16.25	21	32.80		Holmes	4.20	4.20	23	34.85
Chandler	4.15	4.15	1	0.30		Winslow	10.25	10.25	14	9.45

NY Jets

• Two rookie QB’s facing off here. That doesn’t exactly make me want to watch this game. Geno Smith has really only had one start that we can look at because last week’s game against the Pats was in a rainstorm and that even made Brady look average. I think Geno has very limited upside and for that reason, he gets a low rating. Rating = 3
• The Jets are a fantasy nightmare this season. They have a rookie QB, a time split at RB, and a bunch of underachieving WR’s. Techincally Bilal Powell got the start last week, but he still only had 13 carries. Rating = 3
• Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley, and Santonio Holmes. Those are your three options with the Jets WR’s. I don’t think I have to say anything more.
• Kellen Winslow had a big Week 1, but didn’t do much last week. Not too high on him this week either. Rating = 3

Buffalo

• From one rookie QB to another. EJ Manuel is averaging 16 fantasy points per game, but the Jets are ranked 5th against opposing QB’s so I think it’s safe to rule out the rookie. Rating = 3
• It would be very easy to avoid this game completely, but the one guy that I will have on a few of my lineups is C.J. Spiller. He looked dynamic last week tallying up over 120 yards from scrimmage on only 20 touches. He has that breakout game potential. Rating = 6
• Stevie Johnson had a TD in each of his first two games, but when you can’t rely on fantasy production from the QB, you can’t rely on fantasy production from the receivers either.
• Scott Chandler is a decent play if you want to save at TE. Rating = 4

Chicago at Pittsburgh

Chicago Bears						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – 8:30PM ET						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1.5	40	20.75				1.5	40	19.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	27.5	6	17	14		Off.	9.5	30	26	31
Def.	25.5	22	17	14		Def.	18.0	10	9	25
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Cutler	19.39	19.39	2	10.75		Roethlisberger	11.14	11.14	12	15.68
Forte	18.35	18.35	24	22.20		Redman	2.30	2.30	4	11.70
Marshall	20.60	20.60	3	15.75		Brown	9.35	9.35	18	32.50
Bennett	17.75	17.75	17	11.60		Miller			21	12.05

Pittsburgh

• Ben Roethlisberger has averaged 11 fantasy points in the first two weeks. His opponent, the Bears have only given up 15 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s. Vegas expects this to be low scoring. Do I need to keep going? At the end of the day, the Steelers are struggling and they have a very tough matchup. Rating = 4
• Until Le’Veon Bell comes back this Steelers RB situation is not going to get any better. The leading rusher on the team has 37 yards on the season. Rating = 1
• Antonio Brown is one player that I may consider in this game. He catches a lot of those short route passes that are very reliable. I don’t think he has huge upside, but he’s cheap and not the worst option if you need to save money.
• Heath Miller may be back this week. He’s always been a good target for Big Ben. Rating = 4

Chicago

• Da Bears! Everyone expects this game to be a defensive battle and the Steelers are ranked 2nd against opposing QB’s. Even though Cutler has started off the season hot, I just don’t see a lot of value here. Rating = 4
• The Steelers have struggled a bit to contain opposing RB’s though. Chris Johnson had a decent game against them and Giovani Bernard had two scores against them last week. I think Matt Forte is a good pick this week, he gets touches both running and catching the ball. He’s probably a bit too expensive though. Rating = 6
• Brandon Marshall is going to get plenty of balls thrown his way, but this just seems like a game that would be easy to avoid. I doubt many people will be taking players from this game so it won’t hurt you to do the same.
• Martellus Bennett has 3 TD’s on the year already. Not a terrible play this week. Rating = 5

Oakland at Denver

Oakland Raiders						Denver Broncos
Mon – 8:40PM ET						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		14.5	49	17.25				-14.5	49	31.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	18.0	25	29	1		Off.	45.0	1	3	20
Def.	15.0	3	5	10		Def.	25.0	21	28	1
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Pryor	15.96	15.96	17	17.48		Manning	33.13	33.13	22	19.73
McFadden	14.90	14.90	26	23.15		Moreno	16.10	16.10	2	8.55
Moore	6.40	6.40	17	32.00		Thomas	19.15	19.15	13	26.75
Rivera	4.15	4.15	24	15.60		Thomas	19.60	19.60	16	11.25

Denver

• Peyton Manning and the Broncos have that offense rolling. He’s averaging 33 fantasy points this year and has a very good matchup against the Raiders. However, this is another game that you have to be careful on because the line is set at -14.5 and if the Broncos get up big, they may be content to just run the ball and try to run the clock out. Rating = 8
• Knowshon Moreno got the start last week and responded with over 100 yards from scrimmage and a couple of TD’s. His price may be a little too high on some sites, but for slower pricing sites, Moreno could be a great value play against the Raiders.
• Choosing between the Broncos WR’s is a lot like choosing which drink you want at the bar. They all sound good, but deciding between them is tough and you know that choosing the wrong one could lead you to feel like crap the next day. Thomas, Decker, and Welker are all in play, but again, be wary of the blowout.
• Julius Thomas caught another TD last week. On slower pricing sites, if he is still somewhat cheap, get him in your lineup. Rating = 7

Oakland

• Last but not least we have Oakland. It’s funny that sometimes the teams that are the big underdogs end up being better for fantasy because they often get garbage time stats while the other team’s starters are riding the bench. I don’t love Terrelle Pryor this week, but he can gain yards with his feet and that’s always a plus. I will label him as a GPP only play this week. Rating = 5
• Darren McFadden has always played well against the Broncos but if and when they get down big, they will likely limit his rushing attempts and let Pryor try to lead them back into the game. McFadden isn’t my favorite this week. Rating = 4
• Rod Streater seems to be Pryor’s favorite target. Like I said, I think they could rack up some garbage time stats and Streater could end up having a nice game.
• Nothing too exciting about the Oakland TE’s, I will give them a pass. Rating = 2