Advanced Stats Pitching Charts - Mon 8/4
With just 6 games tonight, that means you have just 12 pitchers to choose from. That means I have fewer pitchers to write about than usual, but also that we can dig deeper and say a bit more about each one.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. 2013+ is since the start of that season. Combo stats are explained below.
Alex Cobb – pitching in Oakland as the visitor is not ideal. They are the best home offense in baseball, but they’re a little banged up in the outfield and not hitting at their peak currently. Cobb has been peaking with 15 IP – 1 ER – 2 BB – 22 K over his last 2 starts.
Alfredo Simon – continues to be unimpressive in process, yet surprising in results. He has a tough task today against the 2nd best offense vs RHP.
Brandon McCarthy – faces the Tigers at Yankee Stadium. And they’re red hot. Add in the park effects and it’s probably the worst matchup of the day.
Corey Kluber – has been studly lately and has the greatest matchup of all time. Ok, maybe that’s a bit enthusiastic, but the Reds are the 2nd worst road offense and 5th worst against RHP. Kluber is best in BB% today and 2nd in K% and HR/FB.
Garrett Richards – hasn’t been as impressive in his last 2 starts vs solid offenses (BAL, DET). The good news is he faces a pitcher instead of a DH. The bad news is he faces the 3rd best offense vs RHP.
Hector Noesi – faces one of the 3 teams tied with the 2nd worst wRC+ vs RHP, but there’s still not much positive you can say about his performance. His K & BB numbers rank among the day’s worst.
Jeff Samardzija – almost flies under the radar with sort of a neutral matchup today among some very dominant and terrible pitchers and matchups. The Rays have been hitting well, but probably won’t scare anyone in Oakland.
Kevin Gausman – hasn’t really been hurt by the results, but has 6 BB’s and just 5 K’s over his last 2 starts. He’d otherwise shown some improvement in those areas lately as we’ll see below. He does have the day’s best HR/FB though the worst BB%.
Max Scherzer- the Yankees have been hitting well lately, but are still below average at home and vs RHP for the season. Scherzer just rolls on with his usual brand of dominance.
Nick Martinez – might just be the worst or at least be in the running. The White Sox offense has been hot which makes things twice as bad for him today, sporting the day’s reddest K%.
Tanner Roark – is our hidden stud today, in the midst of a breakout season, facing the 2nd best road offense in baseball (yes, at just 107 wRC+). That offense hasn’t held up lately.
Zack Greinke – has the best across the board peripherals today resulting in the greenest K%, but has a tough assignment today vs the best road offense in the majors.
Combo K/BB Chart
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but were originally due to space limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows, but now, you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
Alfredo Simon – we can’t find a K% above 20 here with his personal side of the chart having the worst numbers.
Brandon McCarthy – has struck out a few more this year, but overall he’s not really a league average strikeout pitcher. The Tigers road K% is really the only thing that could be considered in his favor here.
Corey Kluber – the Reds will neither help nor hurt his K% much. The BB% is sturdy all across, peaking at the Reds 7% vs RHP.
Hector Noesi – the red K & BB rates are all on him. The Rangers don’t much favor any of the 3 true outcomes this year.
Kevin Gausman – you can’t really say a pitcher enjoys the highest BB% of the day, but Gausman has it pretty deservedly without a rate below 7.8%.
Max Scherzer – is 3rd in K% today because the Yankees make contact.
Nick Martinez – the White Sox would actually be willing to help if Martinez wanted to accumulate some K’s, but his rates are atrocious.
Zack Greinke – the Angels are hovering around league average in K% on their side, but while the overall number is pulled up by his recent hot streak, his 27.4 K% at home as a Dodger probably flies a bit under the radar.
Combo Batted Ball Chart
Ditto for the Combo Batted Ball stats in the Main Chart above.
Brandon McCarthy – without a LD% below 21.8 and most of the rates around 24%, we can see why McCarthy carries a high BABIP and why it could be even more of a problem today. He has only allowed a single HR in 2 starts as a resident of Yankee Stadium so far, but tonight is a dangerous start even though the Tigers are only league average in power on the road and vs RHP.
Corey Kluber – has had his issues with HR’s at home (7 of his 10 allowed this year), but Cincinnati is completely bereft of power at the moment, which they can’t hide nearly as well on the road.
Garrett Richards – the Dodgers hit LD’s at an average pace vs RHP, but all other rates are below across his line. The reddest IFFB in the main chart results from decent marks across the board, but it’s very difficult to induce that particular result from the Dodgers in particular.
Jeff Samardzija – has solid LD rates across the board, particularly on the Rays’ side.
Kevin Gausman – while his overall number in the main chart is mostly predicated on recent results for both he and the team he faces, all of the results are in the single digits across his line.
Tanner Roark – LD rates run below average across the board, though more on the Baltimore side. Roark’s IFFB is skewed with 6 of his last 14 fly balls being of the pop up variety, but rates are really solid across the board and some guys don’t do that in a season.
K/SwStr Chart
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing can make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Alex Cobb – had a similar K% last year (23.2), but with just a 9.2 SwStr%, which was the best of his career to that point. He’s reaching new levels of dominance this year and even more so over the last month.
Alfredo Simon – incredible consistency.
Brandon McCarthy – the results have gotten better as the year’s gone on, but we can’t really go nuts about his K% being up much this year anymore. It’s not bad and still a career high for him, but no longer above average.
We see that Corey Kluber and Garrett Richards have had nearly identical SwStr%’s for the year and month, but Kluber trumps in K% both times. His K/SwStr is exactly the same for the year and month as well. Kluber has had a 13+ SwStr% in each of his last 3 starts.
Hector Noesi – has strangely seen his velocity rise a bit over his last 3 starts, but has failed to strike out more than 3 or exceed 6% in SwStr in any of those.
Jeff Samardzija – has maintained his SwStr% in 5 Oakland starts now, but hasn’t maintained his K%. However, he’s struck out 23% in each of his last 2 starts, though both of those were against the Astros.
Kevin Gausman – we see that he’s beginning to pick up the pace a bit. In his first 5 starts, he had a sub 7 SwStr% in 3 of 5 starts, but has had a 9.5+ SwStr% in 3 of his last 5. It doesn’t show in the results yet with 3 K’s or less in 3 of his last 4.
Max Scherzer – has been incredibly consistent as well, with a 28.7 K% last year as well.
Nick Martinez – in the 2 starts sample over the last 30 days, he struck out just 5 of 44 batters, both against the Yankees. In his last start, that was just 2 of 25 with a 4.8 SwStr%.
Tanner Roark – exceed 5 K’s only twice in his first 16 starts and only bested an 8.0 SwStr% 5 times. In his last 5 starts, he has struck out at least 5 in each with an 8.9 SwStr% as a low. His opponents in his last 5 starts include MIA, PHI, CIN, & CHC.
Zack Greinke – has a previous career high 10.6 SwStr%, but this is not his best K%. That occurred in 2011 (28.1%) with the Brewers. He has a 14+ SwStr in 3 of his last 4 with at least 8 K’s in 5 of his last 6.
ERA Estimators Chart
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Alex Cobb – we can see that his season ERA matches his FIP almost exactly, but while he’s been dominant over the last month, it’s his FIP that’s been the farthest from his ERA. That usually means HR’s, but his July mark was 11.1%, well below his career rate of 12.4%. His July LOB was 84.3%.
Alfredo Simon – as with his SwStr and K%, he’s been incredibly consistent in ERA and Estimators for the year and month. He did differ in some of the underlying numbers though. BABIP: .244 season – .274 July. LOB: 83% season – 81.4% July. HR/FB: 12.7% season – 13.8% July. The July BABIP at least matches his team’s allowed mark.
Brandon McCarthy – aside from the FIP, he has very similar estimators from his time in Arizona, yet he’s now seeing results that have exceeded expectations. The HR/FB, which still sits at 17.3% for the year is only 8.7% in 4 starts as a Yankee. The BABIP hasn’t really changed much (.333 as a Yankee), but at least he stranding a reasonable amount of runners (75.3% as a Yankee).
Corey Kluber – had a .227 BABIP in July and .300+ BABIP in every preceding month. He had his highest GB% (55.6) and lowest LD% (17.2) of the season last month too. His July IFFB was only 7.4% with his lowest rate of fly balls (27.3%) as well.
Garrett Richards – despite allowing more than 3 ER’s in 2 consecutive starts for the first time all season, his numbers hold up incredibly well with his peripherals across the board. His 4.5 HR/FB is probably not sustainable long term, which is why we see his 2014 SIERA & xFIP a bit above his ERA & FIP.
Hector Noesi – has a 12.1 HR/FB. If he can improve that to a league average mark, he may just be bad instead of absolutely terrible.
Jeff Samardzija – doesn’t see much of a difference in his move from Chicago to Oakland except in one strange place (although his xFIP is a bit higher as well). His HR/FB, which was league average in Chicago, is up to 12.2% in Oakland. He’s pitched 3 games in Oakland and one in Seattle with Houston being the only hitter’s park since the move. Is it a league difference or just small sample noise?
Kevin Gausman – in 47.2 IP last year he had an 18.6 HR/FB. This year, in 56 innings, it’s 3.3%. While you (if you are an O’s fan) hoped the first number wasn’t sustainable, you can’t buy into the 2nd one either. He’s shown slight improvements in K and BB rates each month.
Max Scherzer – aside from his July FIP, his estimators have been fairly consistent. His July ERA owes a bit to a .233 BABIP and 86.3 LOB%. It’s strange, considering he’s had problems with BABIP in the past.
Nick Martinez – is still pretty awful, just a bit less so over his last 2 starts. He’s walked one more batter than he’s struck out on the season, but struck out 1 more than he’s walked in his last 2.
Tanner Roark – has improved both results and peripherals over the last month. His BABIP isn’t crazy out of line, but the 6.2 HR/FB might be a bit low. In July the BABIP dropped to .240 with a 5.4 HR/FB. His LOB has been higher than 80% in 3 of 4 months, but sits at 78.8% due to a 64.4% May.
Zack Greinke – in a normal year, he might be getting some Cy Young consideration and may just be the 2nd best pitcher in the NL this year, but also the 2nd best on his own staff too. He’s doing this with a BABIP above .321 every month since and including May. His July HR/FB was a season low 5%, allowing just 1 in 5 starts.
BABIP Chart
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it (green). If you have a pitcher with a much higher BABIP (green), but decent IFFB and Z-Contact rates you may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
Alfredo Simon – ERA estimators above assume a league average BABIP. They are, by definition and name even, fielding independent. We care about the defense as daily fantasy players as it is part of the pitcher’s overall results. Simon benefits in that respect, at least he does when the Reds are healthy. That said, he is about league average and excels in none of the indicators that would suggest a BABIP this far below his team’s allowed mark.
Brandon McCarthy – had a .320 BABIP last year and above .325 in every month this year (.330 with the Yankees). His LD% (22.7), IFFB, and Zone Contact) are all worse than league average. His infield defense is different since not only his trade, but also the trade deadline for the Yankees. But maybe he is just a bad BABIP guy at this point in his career. I’d still expect a bit of regression from .343.
Kevin Gausman – has shown an ability to induce IFFB’s better than any other of today’s pitchers. We can’t say similarly positive things about his 22.2 LD% or Z-Contact. Thus, his BABIP doesn’t really benefit.
Max Scherzer- doesn’t induce pop ups, but is hard to contact on any pitch. Both his season and career Z-Contact sit at 82.2%. He can’t help that the Tigers play defense behind him.
Nick Martinez – the Rangers are awful at stopping base hits this year. Martinez doesn’t do anything well enough that you wouldn’t expect his BABIP to be just as bloated. Yes, it can get worse.
Tanner Roark – has decent enough markers (18.7 LD%) that his .270 BABIP may be a little low in regards to what his defense usually does, but not really concerning.
Zack Greinke – has a career .306 BABIP and has always been around that mark, though it’s still a bit lower than this year, where his indicators are really league average or better (20.9 LD%).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Alex Cobb – opponent be damned. He’s been on fire with 22 K’s over his last 2 starts and 2 ER’s or less in 4 straight. The A’s offense (banged up and sacrificed for pitching) is not on fire at the moment. He’s nowhere near the top of the board today and in some cases not even the top half. Cobb is a pretty easy value tag play, possibly the best of the day.
Alfredo Simon – I’m going to continue to not buy in, especially with his matchup today, and probably continue to look silly.
Brandon McCarthy – just like he was generating results worse than his peripherals with the Diamondbacks, he’s doing the opposite with the Yankees. That makes today’s matchup with the Tigers scary.
Corey Kluber – is one of the holy trinity today with Scherzer and Greinke. The kicker is that he faces the Reds. He’s had exactly 10 K’s in 3 of his last 5, with 2 ER’s in 8 of his last 9. He’s pitched into the 9th inning in 4 of his last 5, completing his last 2. Frankly, I’m not sure if the last stat helps or hurts him today, but I could easily see another similar effort in his immediate future.
Garrett Richards – considering the price, opponent, recent performance, and other options, I’m kind of neutral on him today. He faces his 3rd straight tough offense and has struggled against the first 2.
Hector Noesi – the Rangers are not even bad enough for him to be considered.
Jeff Samardzija – he’s not the most expensive or flashy today. His last start was the first he failed to complete 7 innings as an Oaklander, but with a high of 7 K’s since the trade. He should put up another quality start today if you’re looking for an alternative to the absolute top prices.
Kevin Gausman – isn’t reliable or consistent enough to recommend.
Max Scherzer – like Richards, taking all things into consideration, leaves me neutral today. The Yankees have been hitting a little better and there’s that short RF porch to navigate. I don’t dislike him, but might prefer the other 2 top options just a bit today.
Nick Martinez – should probably be your whipping boy today.
Tanner Roark – maybe isn’t as anonymous as I’d thought anymore. He costs more than Cobb in some places with a better matchup, but a bit less in K% potential. He’s pitched exactly 7 innings with 1 ER allowed in 4 straight starts with 5 to 7 K’s in each one. That’s a solid floor.
Zack Greinke – has been on fire and can usually be counted on for dominance at home. The matchup is not really what you want to see, but doesn’t really give me pause. He’s allowed more than 2 ER’s in just 2 of 9 home starts with at least 8 K’s in 7 as well. He’s also struck out 23 of his last 56 batters and gone at least 7 innings with at least 8 K’s in 5 of his last 6 overall.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.