Advanced Pitching Stats: Thursday, September 1st
Congratulations to everyone who’s made it through five months of daily fantasy baseball. You’ve really accomplished something and now we’re in the home stretch as rosters expand. Managers can change pitchers every other batter with 15+ pitchers in their bullpen now. It should be a good time and it starts with just three night games, our smallest slate of the year.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -4.9 | 4.38 | 6.15 | 1.1 | 1.03 | 4.23 | 3.97 | CHW | 87 | 87 | 104 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.6 | 3.15 | 6.33 | 1.37 | 0.87 | 2.85 | 4.68 | FLA | 98 | 94 | 74 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.7 | 4.09 | 6.61 | 1.16 | 1.03 | 4.42 | 3.82 | CHC | 106 | 103 | 92 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 2.3 | 3.68 | 6.55 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 3.9 | 3.08 | MIN | 93 | 102 | 91 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 4.5 | 4.99 | 5.33 | 1.54 | 0.87 | 4.73 | 3.95 | NYM | 100 | 93 | 140 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 8.9 | 4.05 | 5.51 | 2.13 | 1.03 | 3.8 | 4.66 | SFO | 89 | 100 | 128 |
Jacob deGrom had his last start skipped after two straight rough outings, but is pressed back into action a bit before planned due to continued issues with “(player-popup)Steven Matz”:/players/steven-matz-17596’s shoulder. In the past, he has had success with extended breaks late in the season and the Mets are certainly hoping a few extra days off does the trick. In the first of the bad outings, in San Francisco, his velocity was the second highest of the season, he had a 9.8 SwStr% and generated just as much weak contact as hard (23.8%) despite a 38.1 LD%. In the more recent one in St Louis, he still had a 9.6 SwStr%, but the velocity was down just slightly with a 45.0 Hard% and not a single weakly hit ball.
Let’s continue our dissertation on deGrom, as we have a few minutes to spare today. He’s thrown more changeups and fewer sliders over these last two starts, but that in itself is not a problem, but that could just be matchups and doesn’t signify anything in and of itself. deGrom insists he’s fine, but believes he’s just throwing too many pitches down the middle . That seems reasonable enough and we can check it using the Heatmaps feature on Fangraphs, using his entire season heatmap first and then narrowing down to his last two starts to see he is in fact leaving several more pitches in that sweet zone on the inner, lower part of the plate for lefties especially.
There we go then. Jacob deGrom has been solved. He knows he has to throw better pitches and maybe the extra days off will bring him back refreshed and with better command. It’s not the first time he’s used the “too many pitches down the middle” line though. A little over a month ago, he struggled through a start in Miami with a velocity dip and said he threw too many pitches down the middle that night too. Convenient excuse? Well, he did bounce back with several strong starts after that, so perhaps there’s something to it. He has the best matchup on the board in the one negative run environment in play tonight. The Marlins have just a 10.2 HR/FB vs RHP and a 26.4 Hard% over the last week. He may even be able to get away with throwing the ball right down the middle tonight.
Jose Quintana struck out eight of 28 Mariners in his last start and has pitched at least two outs into the seventh inning in six of his last seven starts. His 16.2 K-BB% is the highest of his career, though we do have a small issue with that, which we’ll discuss later and he also has a career high 33.0 Hard%. The Twins hit do have some power against LHP, but haven’t been as strong recently and do strike out 23.2% of the time vs southpaws.
Mike Montgomery has struck out 10 of 41 batters, walking six though, in two starts for the Cubs. One was in Colorado (the better one), while the most recent one was in Dodgerland, but against an offense that has been terrible against LHP. He pitched fairly well in two starts for Seattle, just before being traded right around the All-Star break, striking out 10 of 48 batters. He faces a good San Francisco offense that doesn’t strike out much, but a bit more vs LHP (18.1%), but also hasn’t been very good or shown much more power on the road (10.5 HR/FB). For the asking price, he doesn’t even really have to do much.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.283 – 71.4% – 9.4) had three straight favorable road starts in Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Kansas City before ending in Toronto last time out. He spiked his SwStr% and K% in the first three games before walking five with just four Ks to finish off in Toronto. He has a nice matchup at home against the White Sox tonight, but is the second highest priced pitcher on DraftKings at over $9K now. He’s right in the middle on FanDuel ($7.7K), which seems a bit more reasonable, but he’s facing the highest priced pitcher on the board.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jeff Samardzija has been a bit better in three recent starts at home against poor or struggling offenses, but still has just a 12.4 K-BB% with a .244 BABIP and 81.2 LOB% in August. Now he goes on the road to Wrigley in what might be tonight’s toughest spot and once again costs above $8K.
Jose Urena is probably the pitcher everyone will be attacking today and probably rightfully so even though he doesn’t really have terrible peripherals since returning to the majors. He does have a 46.2 Hard% over those three starts though and as aching as the Mets may be now, they’re the hottest offense on the board (37.1 Hard%, 17.9 HR/FB last seven days).
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 18.5% | 7.3% | Home | 17.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 11.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.5% | 5.3% | Home | 29.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 18.9% | 5.5% | Road | 16.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 7.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.2% | Road | 20.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 3.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 13.0% | 8.9% | Road | 13.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.0% | Home | 20.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 14.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 7.0% | RH | 20.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.9% | 7.2% | RH | 18.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.9% | 11.2% | RH | 21.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.1% |
| Twins | Home | 19.9% | 7.7% | LH | 23.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.6% |
| Mets | Home | 21.5% | 9.1% | RH | 21.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.8% |
| Giants | Road | 18.4% | 8.6% | LH | 18.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 12.2% | 6.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 2016 | 29.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | Home | 29.0% | 10.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 12.5% | 11.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 28.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 2016 | 31.2% | 12.1% | 12.3% | Home | 25.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 33.3% | 22.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 2016 | 31.6% | 12.6% | 13.8% | Road | 27.6% | 11.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 2016 | 33.0% | 8.3% | 16.0% | Road | 29.3% | 6.7% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 43.9% | 10.0% | 26.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.9% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 2016 | 34.5% | 11.3% | 10.8% | Road | 32.2% | 8.8% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 52.9% | 14.3% | 41.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.7% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 2016 | 23.5% | 11.4% | 5.4% | Home | 27.0% | 11.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 20.0% | 8.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 29.7% | 10.8% | 11.4% | RH | 29.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.7% | 12.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | RH | 29.7% | 10.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 6.5% | 2.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 29.1% | 12.5% | 8.8% | RH | 31.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.2% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| Twins | Home | 32.5% | 11.3% | 15.1% | LH | 31.1% | 13.4% | 13.5% | L7Days | 30.9% | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| Mets | Home | 35.1% | 13.9% | 14.0% | RH | 33.9% | 13.4% | 15.7% | L7Days | 37.1% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| Giants | Road | 32.0% | 10.5% | 12.3% | LH | 27.4% | 9.6% | 5.8% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.6% | 7.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 18.8% | 9.6% | 1.96 | 26.2% | 13.4% | 1.96 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.21 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 1.86 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 18.3% | 9.0% | 2.03 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 2.35 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 21.9% | 7.9% | 2.77 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 2.39 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 16.2% | 9.0% | 1.80 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 2.56 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 22.7% | 11.0% | 2.06 | 28.1% | 12.3% | 2.28 |
Jose Quintana has the highest K% of his career, but the lowest SwStr%. It seems to have come more in line over the last month and a 17.7 K% is not very pretty, but the good news is that he’s been above 8.5% in each of his last three starts (though below 10% in all three) after having been above that mark just once (and barely) in his previous seven starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.54 | 4.36 | 0.82 | 4.25 | 0.71 | 3.75 | 0.21 | 3 | 3.65 | 0.65 | 3.63 | 0.63 | 3.03 | 0.03 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.96 | 3.61 | 0.65 | 3.42 | 0.46 | 3.32 | 0.36 | 4.45 | 3.82 | -0.63 | 3.7 | -0.75 | 4.23 | -0.22 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4 | 4.34 | 0.34 | 4.22 | 0.22 | 4.17 | 0.17 | 2.76 | 4.31 | 1.55 | 4.17 | 1.41 | 3.66 | 0.9 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 2.77 | 3.95 | 1.18 | 4.01 | 1.24 | 3.34 | 0.57 | 2.29 | 4.12 | 1.83 | 3.95 | 1.66 | 3.34 | 1.05 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 5.83 | 4.66 | -1.17 | 4.74 | -1.09 | 4.53 | -1.3 | 4.08 | 4.41 | 0.33 | 4.08 | 0 | 4.22 | 0.14 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 2.6 | 3.48 | 0.88 | 3.59 | 0.99 | 3.48 | 0.88 | 2.51 | 4 | 1.49 | 3.85 | 1.34 | 4.05 | 1.54 |
Jacob deGrom is closing in on his estimators over his last two starts, but still stands out with an 80.7 LOB%. It is now 78.7% for his career, but lower in each of the previous two seasons with a higher strikeout rate.
Jose Quintana has a career high 80.9 LOB%, when he’s never been above 77% before, while his .282 BABIP is a career low by a point. His 8.3 HR/FB is in line with his career rate, so there may be some HR suppression skills there, but you also have to consider the highest hard hit rate of his career (33%) and more HRs around the league in general, making you wonder about that going forward. In August, these numbers were very similar, including an 82.8 LOB%.
Mike Montgomery has an 81.4 LOB%, mostly out of the bullpen and mostly for the Seattle Mariners. If you’ll notice though, his .287 BABIP may actually benefit from the trade, though it’s actually been .340 in 18 innings since.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.320 | 0.283 | -0.037 | 0.213 | 6.9% | 87.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.307 | 0.309 | 0.002 | 0.228 | 8.1% | 85.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.286 | 0.276 | -0.01 | 0.189 | 8.0% | 88.0% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.297 | 0.282 | -0.015 | 0.198 | 12.5% | 89.3% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.301 | 0.298 | -0.003 | 0.223 | 9.4% | 89.7% |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.256 | 0.287 | 0.031 | 0.226 | 11.4% | 87.0% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Obviously with just six pitchers, we’re not going to cover all four tiers. There are two pitchers that may stand out relative to their cost above the rest and then maybe even just one more I’d even want to use. We’ll separate them with two tiers tonight.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (1) is coming off two consecutive rough starts for the first time in a while. It came as such a shock because he was previously pitching his best baseball of the season and throwing harder than he had all year. He seems to have identified the issue (supported by evidence) and extra rest has worked for him before. He’s still the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but is still our best bet. He’s down to the third highest price tag (just $9K) on DraftKings in tonight’s top matchup.
Mike Montgomery has struck out 20 of 89 batters in four starts this season. He’s not likely to keep that up against the Giants, but they do strike out a bit more against LHP and he really doesn’t have to do much at all to cover the minimum price tag. He has the lowest price tag on either site with only Urena even near his range and he certainly has more upside.
Value Tier Two
Jose Quintana (2) is the highest priced DraftKings pitcher and not far off the lead on FanDuel. There are some flaws in his surface numbers, but we’re still going to consider him today because we obviously need a pivot of deGrom, who we expect to be the most popular pitcher at this point. His recent rise in SwStr%, while still below league average, is at least a bit encouraging and he’s done a great job of keeping the ball in the park for a number of years now.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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