2023 American Express: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Sony Open. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!
The 2023 American Express kicks off the Californian leg of the PGA Tour season. The event, a Pro-Am, with three rounds of three different courses until closing at the Stadium Course at PGA on Sunday for those who make the cut. Do not get too excited about the celebrity aspect of the Pro-Am as it will likely lead to extremely long rounds that drag on and on and on. In any event, glance over at our betting preview for the event before we make our golf betting picks.
American Express Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
At the time of this writing – January 17th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
| Golfer | Odds (1/17) |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +600 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +1000 |
| Tony Finau | +1400 |
| Will Zalatoris | +2000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 |
| Sungjae Im | +2200 |
| Tom Kim | +2500 |
| Sam Burns | +3500 |
| Brian Harman | +4000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +4000 |
| Taylor Montgomery | +4500 |
| Aaron Wise | +5000 |
| Andrew Putnam | +5000 |
| Cam Davis | +5000 |
2023 American Express: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
- Course: PGA West & La Quinta Country Club
- Date: January 19 – 22
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,159 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.
Tony Finau +1400 (DraftKings)
As mentioned in our tournament preview article, Tony Finau might be the hottest golfer on Tour over the last handful of months. After continuing his breakout with wins last season, Finau’s form is in top shape heading into the American Express.
While his length off the tee might not be necessary at this event, his recent form with the flat stick and on approach will be greatly helpful. Tony ranks 4th in the field in putting and 4th in SG: Approach. He leads the field in BOB gained. The form is there. The price is quite short, but I think Tony’s recent game stands out in what will likely amount to a birdiefest.
We will start our card with 1.75 units on Tony on DraftKings Sportsbook. I will also likely peg Finau as my one-and-done selection for the week.
Tom Hoge +4000 (BetMGM)
Hoge started his season strongly last year and seems to be following suit in 2023. Finishing third in the strong field at the Sentry TOC, Hoge backed that effort up with a made cut and 41st finish at the Sony Open last week.
Hoge leads the field in opportunities gained because of his stellar approach game. With very little rough to speak of, Hoge should be able to find himself in several advantageous situations if he can keep the ball out of the water. Last season, Hoge finished second at this event to complement his 6th place finish in 2020.
He finds himself in the top third of the field in all of my other key categories. He is worth a half-unit this week on BetMGM.
David Lipsky +9000 (Caesars)
Reviewing our preview article, we find David Lipsky as a player to watch after his fourth-place finish at the Sony Open. Lipsky played the American Express last year with strong results.
Lipsky finished 14th in the event in 2020 after struggling off the tee. The rest of Lipsky’s well-rounded game bailed him out last season. Last week, Lipsky gained 5.6 strokes on approach and nearly a few strokes with the putter. That is what we are looking for this week — a strong approach game and a hot putter.
For the price, he is worth a speculative add. Let’s throw a quarter-unit on Lipsky over at Caesars.
Matt NeSmith +20000 (PointsBet)
Finally, we have a bomb that we haven’t seen in quite some time. What Matt NeSmith does well fits this course especially well. NeSmith checks the approach box mightily given the cost to add him to our card. Further, he is in the top 20 in BOB Gained as well as 12th in Proximity from 150-175 yards.
He hasn’t made a start yet this season, but at 200-1, we could do worse at the back end of our card. We close with 0.1 units on NeSmith at this hefty price on PointsBet.
2023 American Express Betting Card
| Golfer | Odds | Units | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +1400 | 1.75 | 24.5 |
| Tom Hoge | +4000 | 0.5 | 20 |
| David Lipsky | +9000 | 0.25 | 22.5 |
| Matt NeSmith | +20000 | 0.1 | 20 |
American Express Total Units in Play – 2.6
2023 Net Units: -3.00
Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn