2024 American Express: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-01-17 21:12:24

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 American Express. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

The PGA Tour makes its way to PGA West for the 2024 American Express. In our betting preview, we comb through the courses and the key statistics we must consider when building this week’s betting card. Give it a read and come back to go over our first edition of betting picks in 2024. Let’s build an outright card for the 2024 American Express.

American Express Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 16th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

2024 American Express: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

• Course: Stadium Course at PGA West (SC)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,187 yards
• Greens: Poa overseed

• Course: Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (TC)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,147 yards
• Greens: Poa overseed

• Course: La Quinta CC (LQ)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,060 yards
• Greens: Poa Trivialis

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Sungjae Im +2200 (DraftKings)

Sungjae Im has five consecutive T20 finishes at the American Express. One of the more consistent players on tour, we might be able to cash in at a very nice price given the field strength.

Scottie Scheffler playing the American Express means we get a boosted set of odds for other golfers. If either Scheffler, Xander, or Patrick Cantlay were not playing this week, Im would be a prohibitive favorite given his pedigree as well as his course history.

Im played well in the fall and continued that momentum with a T-5th in the Sentry. He ranks 7th in BOB% and 6th in Eagles Gained in this week’s field. His statistics over his last 36 rounds are not ideal but I am willing to weigh them a bit less given his course history. We open with Im on DraftKings for a full unit.

J.T. Poston +3000 (Bet365)

J.T. Poston could have won another tournament at last week’s Sony Open if not for a very rough Saturday. Now, he comes into the American Express leading the field in SG: Putting, second in BOB Gained, and 3rd in Opportunities Gained.

Poston is four for his last five at PGA West with two top-ten finishes. He finished sixth last season with a great all-around performance — only losing a portion of a stroke off of the tee. The straightforward setup is suited very well for Poston who excels at flag hunting with wedges and making putts. The first three days will feature straight forward pin positions because of the Pro-Am aspect. Poston could go very low.

We will include him this week for 0.7 units and strongly consider him for one-and-done pools.

Taylor Montgomery +5500 (FanDuel)

Taylor Montgomery gave us a glimpse of his all-around talent last week at the Sony Open. Known mostly for his short game and putting exploits, Montgomery put together a great ball-striking performance.

Last season, Montgomery came in fifth in his debut appearance at the American Express. A tournament that demands players to cash in on a high volume of opportunities would certainly be a good place for a guy who buries putts. Montgomery comes into this week 7th in putting and 8th in BOB Gained. If we add a good week from tee to green, we might be ready for Montgomery’s big breakout.

We will include Montgomery as an outright but maybe leave him out of our one-and-done pool.

Alex Smalley +10000 (BetMGM)

Finally, we speculate a bit with a guy who doesn’t possess a similar skillset as Taylor Montgomery. We land on Alex Smalley who had a great week last week… if not for losing 5.6 strokes on the greens. Smalley gained 4.9 strokes T2G but putting was his undoing.

This week could be more of the same but the price has that baked in for us. When we go over Smalley’s last year of performances, his T10 finishes seem to be when he can break even with his putter. If he were ever to gain a couple of strokes, Smalley could become a very profitable longshot bet.

We sprinkle 0.2 units on Smally on BetMGM to close our card.

2024 American Express Betting Card

American Express Total Units in Play – 2.3

2023 Net Units: 0.00

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn