Astros vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Wednesday, August 4th
Astros vs. Dodgers Odds
| Houston Astros Odds | +194 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -240 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 4 |
| Time | 10:10 pm ET |
| TV | SportsNet LA |
| Odds accurate as of Wednesday morning at BetMGM | |
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Last night, McCullers Jr stymied the Los Angeles Dodgers offense with a dominant nine strikeout performance in a 3-0 win for the Houston Astros. Tonight, these two rivals will wrap up their mini two-game set at Dodger Stadium with Jake Odorizzi on the hill for Houston and Max Scherzer taking the ball for Los Angeles. The dogs barked on Tuesday, but odds at online sportsbooks heavily favor the Dodgers again on Wednesday, August 4th.
Astros vs. Dodgers Picks
Odorizzi’s season-long numbers are slightly below league average, having posted a 4.30 ERA, 4.40 xERA, and a 4.30 FIP in 60.2 innings of work. However, he has fared far better since the middle of June—posting a 2.97 ERA and a 3.82 FIP across eight trips to the mound. It is worth noting that the strength of opposing lineups during his recent hot-streak have been less than stellar. He has faced the Texas Rangers twice, who rank near the bottom of the league in nearly every meaningful offensive metric. He has also turned in good outings against the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, and Seattle Mariners—all teams that with below-average offensive production on the season. Odorizzi’s one start during this span against a team that ranks in the top half of the league against right-handed pitching was against the Chicago White Sox—an outing in which he allowed four earned runs on six hits before being removed after only 3.1 innings. Odorizzi is capable of delivering a good performance in this one against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 24th in OPS and 25th in ISO over the last two weeks. However, those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, considering that Mookie Betts and Corey Seager only returned to the lineup over the weekend. On the year, the Dodgers rank fifth in OPS and ninth in ISO against right-handed pitching.
Scherzer will be making his debut for Los Angeles in this one after being acquired in a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline last week. While Scherzer has unquestionably been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last decade, he has begun to exhibit some signs of regression in his age-36 campaign. His 3.59 FIP is the highest of his career since 2011. Over his last six starts, he owns a 4.01 ERA and a 4.83 FIP. Admittedly, those numbers are slightly skewed by an extremely rough outing against the San Diego Padres on July 8 in which he allowed seven earned runs in 3.2 innings, but he has not posted a FIP below 5.66 in any of his last three starts.
Astros Moneyline +194
Tonight’s price on the moneyline is a direct reflection of the public being overzealous to see Scherzer in a Dodgers uniform for the first time. Houston owns the best record in the American League and should never be such a heavy underdog in any matchup. There is obviously risk by betting on a team with odds approaching +200, but a small wager on the Astros to pull an upset could be a profitable endeavor this evening.
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Over 8.5 Runs
Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue, but the park has graded as exactly league average in terms of offensive production in night games over the last three years. Thus far in 2021, the venue ranks ninth out of 30 ballparks in offensive production under the lights—notably, producing 36 percent more home runs than league average.
At first pitch tonight, the temperature is forecasted to be in the mid-80s with low humidity and a seven miles-per-hour wind blowing out towards right-center field. Batters could not ask for a better environment to hit a baseball. Odorizzi has pitched well lately, and the Dodgers bats have struggled, but he is a hittable arm, and this could be an opportunity for Los Angeles to get back on track at the plate after getting shutout yesterday.
There are two capable starting pitchers in this matchup, but there are also numerous elite offensive players in each of these lineups this evening. The weather should be extremely conducive to the hitters as well. Expect a higher-scoring affair in this one. Make a small wager on the over in this contest.
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