Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers - Game 5 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Astros vs. Rangers Odds
| Astros Odds | -105 |
| Rangers Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Fri, Oct. 20 |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
The road team has won each of the first four games of the American League Championship Series this year, creating a pivotal Game 5 on Friday evening between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. Looking to take a commanding 3-2 series lead, Houston will hand the ball to Justin Verlander, who will be opposed by Jordan Montgomery for Texas. The first pitch is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. ET on FS1.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rangers as -115 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Houston Astros
Justin Verlander gets the ball for Houston in Game 5
On Friday, Justin Verlander will make his 38th postseason appearance, which will be his 14th career start in the ALCS. In his first 13 outings, Verlander is 7-5 with a 2.99 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Despite diminished fastball velocity and reduced spin rates at the advanced age of 40, Verlander has once again been strong this postseason with a 1.42 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 12.2 innings of work.
The larger concern for him heading into Game 5 is how he will be able to perform against a high-quality offense that just saw him five days ago. This is the first time in 2023 that Verlander will have to contend with a hyper-proximity matchup, which is difficult for any pitcher, but especially for a pitcher who does not have the elite stuff that he once did.
Verlander has a reasonably high floor each time he takes the mound, but it would not be surprising to see him struggle in this spot.
Houston offense happy to be on the road
In four postseason games on the road this October, the Astros have scored 30 runs – 7.5 runs per game. Following the All-Star break, Houston’s offense ranked 2nd in OPS and 1st in ISO against left-handed pitching on the road, a place where they were at their best for the entire duration of the regular season.
Reportedly, there was a visual change to the batter’s eye at Minute Maid Park this summer, which Houston batters have suggested was bothersome. The home-and-away splits have been stark and strongly support their public comments.
In Game 5, the Astros will once again have an opportunity to hit on the road, and in a ballpark in which they have looked comfortable so far in this ALCS. There is little evidence to support them falling off a cliff this evening, after scoring 18 runs across the last two days.
Astros bullpen usage cause for concern on Friday?
Hunter Brown threw 33 pitches yesterday, likely making him unavailable for tonight’s action. However, Phil Maton threw 27 pitches, and Rafael Montero threw 18 pitches, and both could be asked to throw again on zero days of rest, depending on the game script this evening.
Bryan Abreu has thrown three of the last five days, and Ryan Pressley would be making his third appearance in five days if forced into action tonight. This relief corps has question marks, even when they are fully rested. Asking mediocre talent to pitch without being completely recovered from their previous outing is a dangerous task.
Texas Rangers
Jordan Montgomery looking to stop Texas losing streak
During these playoffs, the Rangers are a perfect 3-0 in games that Jordan Montgomery has started. In those three outings, Montgomery has compiled a 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings of work, with two of his outings being of the scoreless variety.
Hyper-proximity matchups are always difficult for pitchers, and the range of potential outcomes is large for Montgomery on Friday. At the end of September, he lasted six innings and allowed only one earned run against the Seattle Mariners, seeing them for the second time in the same week. However, earlier in the month, Montgomery allowed six earned runs in 3.2 innings of work against the Minnesota Twins, pitching in a hyper-proximity situation.
Houston’s bats are hot, and they are seemingly extremely comfortable at Globe Life Field. This is a very tough spot for Montgomery in Game 5.
Texas offense in need of a bounce-back performance
On Thursday night, the Rangers scored only three runs and had only four hits with runners-in-scoring-position for the entire game. This was in stark contrast to Houston’s offense, which scored 10 runs and had 16 at-bats with runners-in-scoring-position.
Still, Texas’ offense had nine of the 13-hardest hit baseballs in Game 4, indicating that they are still seeing the ball well. Only the Phillies and Astros have a higher OPS than Texas so far during these playoffs. It would be unwise to write-off the Rangers offense at this point.
Texas’ high-leverage options available in Game 5
Despite having to overuse their relief corps in each of the last two games, Texas is still set up well for Game 5. None of Jose Leclerc, Aroldis Chapman, and Josh Sborz have pitched since Monday, meaning that they are available and rested to cover at least three innings this evening, in the Rangers’ most important game of their season.
Manager Bruce Bochy is a season postseason presence in the dugout, and he will not flinch simply because his team has lost two games in a row. This group is positioned as well as they possibly could be going into tonight’s action.
Astros vs. Rangers – Picks & Predictions
Counting the regular season, Houston is an MLB-best 55-30 on the road in 2023. Following a pair of home losses to open this year’s ALCS, the Astros have scored 18 runs in two games at Globe Life Field and show little sign of slowing down heading into Game 5.
There are concerns with Justin Verlander in this matchup, but he is still likely the better starting pitcher compared to Jordan Montgomery. Houston’s offense has undeniably had a better approach at the plate each of the last two days. Do not be surprised if the Astros jump out to an early lead once again today.
PICK: Astors Moneyline – First 5 Innings (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)