Falcons vs. Panthers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Falcons vs. Panthers Odds
| Falcons Odds | -2.5 |
| Panthers Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 10 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Amazon |
This evening, Week 10 of the NFL regular season will begin with a matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. Entering play, both of these teams are below the .500 mark, but both still have realistic playoff hopes in an extremely weak NFC South division. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested divisional affair in this spot, pricing Atlanta as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Atlanta Falcons
Despite few pundits expecting more than a few wins for the Falcons this fall, Atlanta has an opportunity to move into first place in the NFC South with a victory on Thursday Night Football. A large portion of Atlanta’s early season success is attributable to a dynamic offense, which ranks 11th in offensive EPA/play through nine games. Entering play, the Falcons rank 8th in points per game, 15th in time of possession, and 7th in third-down conversion percentage – indicators that their offensive success is likely to continue into the second-half of the campaign. When these two teams met less than a month ago, the Falcons scored 37 points behind a three-touchdown performance from quarterback Marcus Mariota. Per The Athletic, tight end Kyle Pitts had a season-high 197 air yards in that contest. Atlanta is capable of moving the ball effectively both on the ground and through the air against this Carolina defense.
The larger concerns for the Falcons are on the defensive side of the ball. Through nine games, only the Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, and Detroit Lions rank worse in defensive EPA/play. Facing Carolina earlier in the season, Atlanta allowed 478 yards of total offense – 169 rushing yards and 309 passing yards. This unit will likely need to play much better in the rematch if they hope to secure a season-sweep of their division rivals.
Carolina Panthers
Excluding Carolina’s 34-point performance against Atlanta in Week 8, the Panthers have not scored more than 24 points in any contest this fall. Rotating between Baker Mayfield and P.J. Walker at quarterback, the starting signal callers for this offense have only nine touchdowns against eight interceptions this season. The mid-season trade of Christian McCaffrey only further limits the ceiling of this group, despite the strong play of D’Onta Foreman in recent weeks. Prior to the fourth quarter in the Panthers’ first game against the Falcons, Carolina had scored only 13 points. The Panthers have a favorable matchup against a weak defense in this spot, but points are far from a given for this offense.
The primary weakness for this Carolina defense is against opposing rushing attacks. Entering play on Thursday, the Panthers rank 17th in Rush EPA/play this fall. In Week 9, this group was victimized by Joe Mixon, who had 211 yards of total offense and five touchdowns. In this matchup, Carolina will be tasked with slowing down the combination of Marcus Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson. In Patterson’s return to the field from injury last weekend, he had two scores on the ground. Similar to the first time these two teams met, the Panthers are likely to find it difficult to get consistent stops tonight.
Falcons vs. Panthers – Picks & Predictions
When these two teams met less than a month ago, the final score was 37-34, suggesting that the game was a shootout. However, the score at the end of the third quarter was only 21-13 before 34 points were scored in the final 15 minutes of regulation. Playing on a short week, bettors should expect far fewer points on the board in the rematch. Take the under.
PICK: Under 42.5 (-114, FanDuel)
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