Bears vs. Commanders Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with two NFL teams coming off very tough Week 4 losses, with the Commanders losing last week in OT in Philadelphia and the Bears losing at home 31-28 against Denver despite leading 28-7 late in the third quarter. Both of these teams have looked terrible on defense, with the Bears allowing the second-most points in the NFL and the Commanders allowing the fourth-most points, however Washington has had to face both the Bills and the Eagles already, while the Bears have faced the Chiefs. The injury report for this game is relatively clean, with neither team missing major pieces on offense.
The Commanders are favored by six points in this game with a game total of 44.5 points and this immediately creates an interesting dynamic for our single-game lineups. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have Justin Fields priced higher than Sam Howell, despite Howell playing at home as the QB favored by six points. FanDuel also has DJ Moore priced more than Terry McLaurin and DraftKings even has Chicago kicker Cairo Santos priced $400 more than Washington kicker Joey Slye. I’ll touch on this in more detail in the sections below, but I still expect Justin Fields to be very highly owned in tonight’s contests due in part to his perceived rushing upside and his popularity coming into this season as a target for season-long and best ball leagues.
Bears vs. Commanders Showdown DFS Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
I alluded to this above but my plan to beat the field tonight is to be overweight the Commanders while being underweight the Bears, particularly Justin Fields. This seems like a strange way to be contrarian – being overweight the cheaper home team that is favored by six points against one of the worst defenses in the league – but I really think the Bears will see heavier ownership in this game due to their pricing and the preseason expectations for these teams.
Justin Fields is priced $1500 more expensive than Sam Howell on FanDuel and $1600 more expensive on DraftKings, which lines up with Fields’ popularity on pre-season draft rankings but doesn’t match the context for this game. I have Howell projected ahead of Fields in this matchup based on raw points alone, and that doesn’t even factor in the sacrifices you have to make elsewhere in your lineup to fit Fields onto your roster. Fields is popular and projects well because he has rushing upside – but Howell has rushing ability as well. In fact, Fields is only averaging 13.0 rushing yards per game more than Howell on the season. The Bears are asking Fields to throw more this season – 30.8 attempts per game compared to 21.2 pass attempts per game last season – which is great for his development as a more well-rounded QB but not great for his fantasy points per game.
I don’t plan to fade Fields entirely, but I do plan to be under the field on his ownership both in the MVP/CPT spots and in the Flex position in my lineups. I also think assuming the Bears ask Fields to throw more than he has in years past (and more than the field perceives he will) allows us to create some different roster constructions than other players in our contests tonight.
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
While we’ll want to consider the scoring on each site and set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to winning lineups. Each week, I’ll aim to hit on “rules that can be broken” for our lineups.
As I referenced above, I think the field is overestimating the rushing ability of Justin Fields this season while underestimating the rushing ability of Sam Howell. This week, I’ll be pairing Justin Fields MVP/CPT lineups with at least two pass-catchers from the Bears, while allowing some Sam Howell in the MVP/CPT spot with only one pass-catcher. My general guideline is to pair rushing QBs in the top spot with only one pass-catcher from the same team, while forcing stationary QBs at the MVP/CPT spot to have at least two pass-catchers in the flex positions. While I would hardly define Fields as a stationary QB, I do think forcing two pass-catchers from the Bears into lineups with their QB in the MVP/CPT spot will give me some different combinations compared to other lineups in the contests, allowing me to avoid duplication with the field.
Similarly, I plan to pair some of my lineups with Sam Howell in the MVP/CPT spot with only one pass-catcher from the Washington side, and I will also include RB Antonio Gibson as one of the “receivers” from the Commanders. While technically not a “rule break” from my general guidelines, I think the field will be underestimating Howell’s rushing ability in this matchup, which should create some differentiation for my lineups.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
I’ve touched on some of the price discrepancies in the sections above, but I plan to take full advantage of what I see as some mispricings on DraftKings. Howell’s $1600 price discount compared to Fields grows to $2400 when using Howell in the CPT spot, so while I tend to aim for more WRs and RBs in the CPT spot, I will use Howell more in the top spot than I otherwise would given his price discount.
Commanders kicker Joey Slye is also curiously priced below Cairo Santos on DraftKings, which is rare for a kicker at home with a 6-point spread in his favor. Slye has averaged 7.8 DK points this season compared to 5.5 DK points for Santos, so I don’t know what is causing the pricing discrepancy. While kicker scoring can be somewhat random, I expect to have more Slye than Santos to take advantage of the savings, and more Slye on DraftKings relative to FanDuel.
One final pricing note – Antonio Gibson stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings at just $3200, priced below all of the kickers and defensive units. While Gibson is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, his role as the pass-catching running back for Washington makes him particularly appealing on DraftKings where he’ll get the full point per reception.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
I’ve discussed the pricing between Fields and Howell in depth already, but on FanDuel, the $1500 difference between the two and Fields’ $17,000 price tag gives him a strong chance of being priced off the winning lineup if he isn’t putting up points through both passing and rushing tonight. I expect Fields will be one of the highest-owned players on FanDuel tonight, but with the lack of salary multiplier and his high cost, there is an argument for either using Fields in the MVP spot or not at all on your lineups tonight.
One player who stands out as a value on FanDuel compared to DraftKings is Washington TE Logan Thomas. On DraftKings Thomas is just $1200 cheaper than Bears TE Cole Kmet, $400 cheaper than Washington WR Curtis Samuel, and $200 more expensive than Bears WR Darnell Mooney. On FanDuel Thomas comes at a very large discount to all of those players priced at just $7000, compared to $10,000 for Kmet, $10,500 for Samuel, and $8500 for Mooney.
While these teams only have a 2-4 record on the season so far, they both came into the year with higher expectations and have some standout talent on offense, so this should be a fun game to watch. Good luck to everyone tonight and enjoy!