Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Bears at Rams
NFL Week 7 concludes with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and Rams. Taking a turn away from last night’s high scoring affair, the Rams and Bears have the second-lowest lowest total of the week at online sports betting sites.
It’s safe to say both teams have overperformed up to this point of the season, but the Bears especially. Though 5-1 and tied atop the NFC North, the Bears are underdogs for the sixth time this season.
Do the Bears deserve more respect than they’re getting from oddsmakers?
Bears vs. Rams Betting Odds
As of Monday morning, bets against the spread are split close to 50-50, while the Under is the popular side when it comes to the totals, according to ScoresAndOdds. The Over/Under has fallen from 46 to 44.5 as a result.
Oddsmakers think Nick Foles will have his hands full against a defense that includes Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald.
They’re right.
Chicago is 5-1 in spite of their offense, certainly not because of it.
The Bears’ Rush Success Rate ranks 26th in the NFL, and their Pass Success Rate (18th) is only slightly better.
So how are the Bears 5-1? A mix of defense and luck.
Four of their five wins have been by four points or fewer, including fourth-quarter miracles in Detroit and Atlanta.
In both games, the Bears entered the final quarter trailing by double digits before score 20 and 21 points, respectively.
To be fair, their defense has shown up despite several key players opting out before the season began.
Sean McVay’s Rams have a somewhat similar story. Their defense is one of the best in the league, but they’re struggling offensively.
Luckily they’ve already benefited from playing all four NFC East opponents, which have unsurprisingly (at least in hindsight) resulted in victories. Their two losses came against the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers.
The Bills loss looked a lot better before Buffalo was smothered by the Titans and failed to cover against both the Chiefs and most recently the Jets.
Bears & Rams Futures Outlook
Neither team has made a much of a roar in NFL futures.
The Bears and Rams are +2500 and +3300, respectively, to win the Super Bowl. Defense wins the championships, they say. However, don’t expect a title for either of these squads.
The NFC is crowded with MVP candidates like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, each of whom happens to be a division foe for one of the teams playing tonight.
I don’t think there’s any value in betting on these teams to make noise come the playoffs — heck, they have to make the playoff first.
Right now both teams are favored to make the playoffs following their hot starts.
Make/Miss Playoff Odds
Bears -286/+225 at Unibet
Rams -220/+190 at William Hill
It doesn’t hurt that the playoffs are expanding this year to include seven teams rather than six.
But when we look at standings and schedules, the road to the playoffs may not be as easy for these teams as the odds suggest.
Neither team is favored to win their division. The Packers are clearly the best team in the NFC North, and the Seahawks are the best of four playoff-caliber teams in the NFC West.
If the Seahawks, Packers, and Bucs all win their divisions, there are only three wild card spots to go around for the Bears, Rams, Cardinals, 49ers, Saints and Panthers.
I have a difficult time believing the Rams and Bears will take up two of the three spots, and it’s possible for both teams to be on the outside looking in at the conclusion of the regular season. The loser of tonight’s game, in particular, will see their playoff chances to a significant hit. That’s why I like taking plus-money on each team missing the playoffs.
Monday Night Betting Picks: Bears at Rams
In short, neither team is as good as they look in the current NFL standings. Both have offensive deficiencies, and it’s tough to have confidence in either team given the quality (or lack thereof ) of their wins.
While I generally have little confidence in the Bears, the Rams laying six points sounds a bit generous.
This is expected to be a low-scoring game between two sub-par offenses and two of the league’s top defenses. There will be turnovers and possibly more field goals than actual touchdowns. I think the Rams win by three.