Primetime Parlay: Vikings vs. Bears Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 11:53:39

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun Same Game Parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our Same Game Parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Same Game Parlay for the Chicago Bears versus the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

The 12th week of the NFL season comes to a conclusion on Monday night when the Minnesota Vikings welcome the Chicago Bears. As ever, we look to construct a fun Same Game Parlay ticket to sweat on FanDuel Sportsbook for tonight’s game. The Bears continue to look to the future as Justin Fields returned to play a good game against the Lions in Week 11. The Vikings dropped a close game in Denver on Sunday night but look to right the ship with Josh Dobbs on Monday night. Let’s take a look at betting odds and stats for tonight’s game before building our ticket.

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Vikings vs. Bears Same Game Parlay

The Vikings are 3-point home favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook. Sports betting sites are giving plenty of respect to the Bears. Despite a losing record, the Bears continue to compete each week. Per ScoresAndOdds, 53% of betting tickets were placed on the Minnesota spread throughout the week. Yet, 71% of actual betting handle sided with the Bears. The spread shifted a half-point.

The game total sits at 43.5 points at the time of this writing — down from opening at 45 points. Unsurprisingly, a flood of money fell on the under in a divisional matchup, with 69% of handle placed below the number. This is not uncommon for primetime football games. The game will be played in a dome, allowing optimal conditions. That said, we should be skeptical of both teams’ chances of scoring a high volume of points tonight.

For the visiting Bears, D’Onta Foreman is out with an ankle injury after filling in admirably over the last few weeks. Khalil Herbert will likely see the highest share of backfield work for the Bears, while Roschon Johnson will back up Herbert and assume some 3rd-down work.

For the Vikings, T.J. Hockenson was removed from the injury report and will play through his rib injury. Justin Jefferson is questionable for Monday Night Football after getting in a limited practice on Thursday. The Vikings will have until 3:00 PM to make a decision about Jefferson’s status on the IR. Jefferson returning would mean an immediate downtick in work for the remaining Vikings’ pass catchers.

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Justin Fields nearly led the Bears to a victory last week against the Lions before Detroit mounted an incredible comeback late in the game. Fields did Fields things, rushing for more than 100 yards and accruing 160+ passing yards. The quarterback only threw for 1 touchdown but did not turn the ball over. The Bears find themselves in the mix for one of the highly-touted quarterbacks in this year’s draft, so expect to see Fields on full display to close out the season.

Here is a look at the relevant offensive statistics for both teams ahead of tonight’s game.

Bears Offense
18th — 20.9 PPG
22nd — 5.0 YPP
22nd — 6.7 Passing YPA
10th — 4.4 Rushing YPA

Vikings Offense
13th — 23.0 PPG (26.0 L3)
9th — 5.6 YPP
15th — 6.4 Passing YPA
25th — 3.9 Rushing YPA

The strength of the Bears’ offense is the rushing game. That strength should only be bolstered by the legs of Justin Fields, who should free up holes for his running backs with the RPO game. That said, the Vikings and Bears defenses both rank in the top 5 in opposing yards per rush attempt. Both teams could look to throw the ball a ton on Monday night.

Neither team excels at sacking the quarterback. Chicago ranks dead last, with a terrible 3.60% sack rate. The Vikings are just below average despite Danielle Hunter accumulating 12 sacks thus far in 2023. Hunter will be a free agent in 2024 and will be a prime target for many teams.

With both teams struggling to stop the pass but excelling at limiting rushing yards, we might be in for a shootout on Monday night. A back-and-forth affair should making props interesting. Let’s see what ParlayIQ thinks about tonight’s game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football

Fields Over 53.5 Rushing Yards
Addison Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Mattison Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

Justin Fields Over 53.5 Rushing Yards

ParlayIQ rates out the rushing over for Justin Fields on Monday night as the highest percentage play with regard to the simulations of this game. ParlayIQ finds Fields eclipsing this number in 77% of simulations.

While the Vikings are stout against the run, Fields is not a running back. If the Vikings are in man coverage or do not spy Fields, he can rip off 20+ yard runs in the blink of an eye. Fields injured his hand against the Vikings and left the game in the 3rd quarter. At the point of his exit, Fields had 46 rushing yards and felt likely to leap over this number.

We open with the Bears’ offensive superstar and now look to attack the passing game.

Jordan Addison Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

ParlayIQ thinks Jordan Addison is a coin-flip proposition at this number. This wouldn’t be my first coin flip.

Addison has at least 6 targets in 5 straight games and at least 52 receiving yards in 4 of those 5. Assuming Justin Jefferson remains out, Addison should see a similar workload with plenty of upside to make big plays at home against a very weak passing defense. Josh Dobbs should have time to throw the ball in the pocket, allowing Addison to get downfield.

Not my first coin flip and won’t be my last.

Alexander Mattison Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

The Bears have allowed 68 receptions to the running back position this season. With the 2nd-worst mark in this category, we should expect to see the Bears give up a few catches to the running back position.

Mattison will likely struggle on the ground but should be in on 3rd downs for the Vikings and get a few opportunities to catch and run. Dobbs’ ability to work outside of the pocket gives Mattison a bit of time to find an area for his quarterback. We should not need more than a couple of catches to check this box.