Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bears vs. Vikings Odds
| Bears Odds | +3 |
| Vikings Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Mon, Nov. 27 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 12 of the NFL regular season will come to a close on Monday Night Football with an NFC North divisional showdown between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. Entering play, the Vikings are two games behind the Lions for first place in the division, with the Bears in the basement at 3-8.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Vikings as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Chicago Bears
What to expect from Justin Fields
Justin Fields looked mostly unbothered by his thumb injury in his return to the field last weekend against the Lions, but he still managed only 169 passing yards for the afternoon – most of which came in the first half. Fields made his biggest contributions with his legs, running for a season-high 104 yards on 18 attempts.
The biggest area to watch tonight will be how Fields handles Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense. From Week 1 to Week 6, only Sam Howell and Daniel Jones had more pressure allowed as a result of holding on to the ball too long. Minnesota’s defensive pressure rate has been trending downward in the second half of the season, which could benefit Fields on Monday. If choosing to bet on Fields props, it could be best to attack on the live market after seeing how the Vikings go after him early in the game.
Bears run defense playing at a high level
Since Week 5, Chicago has had the best run defense in the entire NFL, ranking 1st in EPA/play and 1st in success rate. During that stretch, they have held Brian Robinson to 10 rushing yards, Alexander Mattison to 44 rushing yards, Josh Jacobs to 35 rushing yards, Austin Ekeler to 29 rushing yards, Alvin Kamara to 26 rushing yards, and Chuba Hubbard to 23 rushing yards.
The larger issue for the Bears defensively is their secondary unit, which has remained poor. In their last seven games, Chicago ranks 17th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate against the pass. Part of their issues defending the air are undoubtedly tied to their inability to consistently get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking outside of the top-10 in defensive pressure rate in each of their last six games.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson ruled OUT
Despite there being a fair amount of optimism early in the week that Justin Jefferson could suit up this evening, Minnesota’s star wide receiver will ultimately miss his seventh consecutive contest. Since he last played in Week 5, Minnesota’s offense ranks 9th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate overall. They rank 3rd in EPA/play and 9th in success rate through the air, which has helped this group score points, even without much contribution from the ground attack.
In three games since being acquired by the Vikings, Josh Dobbs ranks 7th in passer rating from a clean pocket and 17th in passer rating when under pressure. Still, he ranks 25th in average depth of target from a clean pocket, illustrating the inherent limitations of having him as the team’s starting signal caller.
Facing a Chicago defense that has struggled to get consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks this fall, it is likely that we see a lot of short completions from Dobbs once again.
Akayleb Evans listed as QUESTIONABLE
Cornerback Akayleb Evans is officially listed as questionable for Monday Night Football against the Bears. Per PFF, Evans ranks 35th out of 110 cornerbacks in run defense grade in 2023 and 78th in coverage grade. In his absence in Week 11, rookie cornerback Mekhi Blackmon played a season-high 53 snaps and performed well. If Evans is unable to go, Minnesota’s secondary unit is still in fine condition.
From Week 6 to Week 11, Minnesota’s defense ranked 3rd in EPA/play and 10th in success rate. They were extremely stingy against the pass in that stretch, ranking 6th in EPA/play and 6th in success rate. If this group has any vulnerability, it is against opposing rushing attacks.
Bears vs. Vikings – Picks & Predictions
Neither of these offenses are overly impressive, but both defenses have strengths that should manifest in this Monday Night Football affair. Chicago has the best run defense in the entire NFL since Week 5 and gets a favorable matchup tonight against a Minnesota ground attack that has been mostly anemic this fall. The Vikings defense has been a top-six unit against the pass since Week 6, and Justin Fields could find himself responsible for a number of negative plays in this game against a blitz-heavy Minnesota pass rush. There are a few different game scripts in which the under is viable, making it a worthwhile risk this evening.
PICK: Under 43.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)