Become a Book That Walks
The other night, I got stuck in a YouTube vortex.
It started with a trailer (Black Mass – which, if you want my opinion, looks pretty darn appealing from Trailer 1, and looks pretty “meh” from Trailer 2). This led to watching more trailers, which led to a search for other movies scheduled for release late in the year, which led to a search for a trailer for Quentin Tarantino’s upcoming movie, which led to watching interviews with actors who had worked with Tarantino.
I’ve watched such interviews before. And the previous times I watched such interviews, I was struck with the same realization that struck me the other night:
Almost all actors who talk about working with Tarantino bring up how much the guy knows about film. I’m not talking just general knowledge about making movies; I’m saying, most people who have worked with Tarantino end up describing him as something akin to a walking encyclopedia of film history.
Remember MySpace? Back when MySpace was a thing, Tarantino had a personal page. His quote on that personal page said something to the following effect: “People often ask me if I went to film school. I tell them, ‘No. I went to films.’”
Now, if you went to film school yourself, stay with me. I’m not knocking film school (or any other type of school). My point, instead, is simply this: In Tarantino’s mind, what was important for learning the art of filmmaking was not “listening to others tell him how to do it”; instead, it was “watching others do it, and watching others do it some more, and watching others do it some more, ad nauseam,” until he knew so much about the history, subtleties, development, art, approaches, techniques, etc., of filmmaking, he could not help but grow and learn from that knowledge himself.
Bill Belichick is the same way. Any coaches or players who have worked with him or spent time with him (um… that is, the ones who have worked with him or spent time with him and do not subsequently hate him) end up describing him as a walking encyclopedia of football-related knowledge. I’ve heard multiple people go so far as to describe Belichick as the greatest living football historian.
You don’t like Tarantino, and you don’t like Belichick? That’s fine. How about Martin Scorsese? Same thing. Listen to those who have worked with him or spent time with him, and most of them will talk about the incredible depth and breadth of film-related knowledge the man possesses – again, often going so far as to describe him as a walking encyclopedia of film-related knowledge, or (again – something I’ve heard multiple people say in reference to Scorsese) even calling him the greatest living film historian.
If you don’t like any of those people, how about me? Do you dislike me as well? If you’ve made it this far into this article, I’m assuming you don’t hate me, so I’ll talk about myself. When I was in college, I dropped my writing major after two semesters. It wasn’t that I felt I couldn’t learn from my professors. Instead, it was simply that I felt I could learn far more on my own. For years, I’ve read, and written, and studied the history of literature, and learned about different writers, and read, and written, and studied the history of literature, and learned about different writers, ad nauseam. That’s how I spend my time, and that’s how I learn, and that’s how I aim to (and hopefully do) improve each day as a writer – always becoming better than I was the day before. Am I the best writer out there? No. But I feel comfortable saying I’m quite good, and tomorrow I’ll be better than I was today, and today I’m better than I was yesterday, and so on – and I accomplish that by reading and writing and studying the history of literature and learning about different writers, and…
Yeah.
One more quick story, and then I’ll get to what I am leading to with all this, and then we’ll get to some stats (or, I should say, some DFS directives with stats mixed in) that will help you in your upcoming week of DFS play.
I don’t know how true this story is, but I like it nonetheless.
The story goes something like this:
When the 2012 USA men’s Olympic basketball team was getting ready for the 2012 Summer Olympics, LeBron James showed up at the gym for practice 30 minutes early. Kobe Bryant and another player (I don’t recall who the story claims this other player was) were already on the court, in full sweat, working on their shots. When LeBron walked in, Kobe told him, “You’re late.” LeBron said, “I’m 30 minutes early.” To which Kobe replied, “Exactly. You’re late.”
Again, I don’t know how true that story is, but I love it nonetheless, as there are certain athletes in every sport who are known for their overwhelming work ethic. Sometimes, these are players such as Wes Welker and Dustin Pedroia – guys who would probably never have made it to the top of their sport if they weren’t willing to work so hard. But every so often, there will be a guy like Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant – a guy with all the talent in the world… who is also adamant about working harder than anyone else in the game.
We’ve talked about filmmakers. We’ve talked about an NFL coach. We’ve talked about me, and writing. And we’ve talked about NBA superstars. What about DFS?
Exactly, my friend. What about DFS?
How well do you know the DFS sports you play? How well do you know the advanced stats of various pitchers on various teams? How well do you know the wOBA splits of different hitters across Major League Baseball? Do you know, off the top of your head, who performs better at home and whose numbers at home versus on the road are really no different? Do you know, when you look at a slate of games, which pitchers you should target with power hitters and which pitchers you should target with guys who are “safe plays who can get on base”? When you prep for a slate of games, do you know already which hitters have been hitting the ball well lately and which hitters have not?
How well do you know this sport in which you have been risking money every day for the last three months?
Or, another question: What about roster construction? Do you know what has worked for you in the past and what has not worked? Do you know what approach I usually take on my teams with pitchers and hitters? Do you know the approach Notorious takes, or that CSURam88 takes, or that RayofHope, BeepImaJeep, BirdWings, or DraftCheat take? Do you know what works best for others in GPP play, and what works best for others in cash game play? Do you know where your weaknesses are, and where you need to improve?
During NFL season, in several of my articles, I talked about how most of my research is not centered around an upcoming slate of games, but is instead centered around “learning as much about the NFL itself – about its players, its coaches (and their tendencies), the matchups, the skill gaps, the ways in which certain players match up with certain types of players,” and so on – that I can. At the time, I said that I felt if I knew more about the NFL than anyone else, I would always have a better chance than anyone else to build winning DFS rosters.
Well, guess what? Nothing changes for me when the sport changes. Yes, MLB requires a little more slate-specific research than NFL, but every time I conduct research for a slate, I do so with long-term knowledge in mind. I dig deeper than the surface stats and information that will help me “today” – instead looking at the things that will provide me with foundational knowledge that I can use in the future. Every day, I attempt to get to know Major League Baseball better than any other DFS player knows Major League Baseball, in order to get better at MLB DFS tomorrow than I am today, and in order to do the same thing the next day, and the next day, and the next day, and so on.
Maybe, someday, someone will describe me as a walking encyclopedia of DFS knowledge. Maybe, someday, I’ll be called a book that walks.
Until then (and… I guess, even “after then”), I’m going to keep “going to films,” so to speak – immersing myself each day into each sport I am playing, and learning and improving and learning and improving as a result.
ONTO SOME DFS DIRECTIVES
Originally, I wanted to use the intro to talk about how the little things matter. I was going to explore various “little things” in life that matter, and I was then going to tie that into the fact that “the little things” in DFS are often the items that create a difference between winning and losing. But I couldn’t think of any “little things” to talk about in the intro, so I went a different direction.
The intro I ended up writing instead (and that you just finished reading) was probably more valuable, anyway, than if I’d just talked about “little things in normal life that matter,” as that would have been entirely illustrative and non-instructive. So, there you go. You win.
But even though that more-valuable intro does not tie into “the importance of paying attention to the little things,” I still have three “little things” I want to advise you to pay attention to. As would have been illustrated in the originally-conceived intro: the little things matter. Sometimes, in fact, the little things are what end up making the biggest difference of all.
Here are three “little things” you need to be paying attention to in MLB DFS.
1) Pay attention to pitcher splits:
Righties! Lefties!
Oftentimes, that’s all we see when we look at pitchers, as many of us never take the next step and make sure righty/lefty means what we assume it means. There are two ways I want to encourage you to pay attention to this.
Firstly, you need to pay attention to pitchers with reverse splits. Because most Major League teams ignore the statistics that say a pitcher is a reverse-splits guy, they will still load up on bats of the opposite handedness against a pitcher with reverse splits. By recognizing this, you can quickly and easily take advantage of a premium matchup.
A great example of this occurred just this last week, when Clay Buchholz was squaring off against the Astros at Fenway Park. We already know, of course, that the Astros strike out a lot, but what you may not have known is that Buchholz’ filthy changeup has led to him holding lefties to a .268 wOBA (compared to a perfectly average .310 wOBA allowed to righties). Furthermore, Buchholz currently has a 24.9% strikeout rate against lefties (compared to 20.9% against righties). But what did the Astros do against Buch the other day? Yeah – they loaded up their lineup with lefties, going so far as to take out guys who were actually better overall hitters in order to gain what was, on the surface, a handedness advantage. What did Buchholz do? He did about what you would expect a righty with reverse-splits and high strikeout numbers against lefties to do against a mostly-lefty lineup: Nine innings pitched, eight strikeouts, no walks, six hits, and one run. Add in the fact that Buchholz was cheap across the industry, and that’s quite a bargain!
The second way in which you need to pay attention to pitcher splits is with pitchers who are far better against one particular handedness. This is something I have mentioned before, and it is surely something I will mention again (and every time I mention it, it will be worth mentioning, and will be worth paying attention to). Typically, this becomes valuable with a right-handed pitcher who is poor against lefties, but is very good against righties. Because there is generally a handful of teams each year that have very few left-handed bats, these “great against righties only” pitchers will sometimes end up with a game in which they get to face a team that is almost exclusively righties. A guy like Jesse Hahn, then (who allows the sixth-lowest wOBA to righties in all of Major League Baseball) or a guy like Rubby de la Rosa (who allows the 13th-lowest wOBA to righties in all of Major League Baseball, and has a 29.1% strikeout rate against righties – compared to 15.4% against lefties), becomes far more valuable when facing a team that is almost all righties, and should be valued accordingly (especially as they will still be priced based on their overall numbers – which include their worse stats against lefties).
Listen: Splits matter. And the sooner you start paying attention to – and trusting – pitcher splits, the sooner you will be able to benefit from the pricing inefficiencies in place when a pitcher’s splits give him a larger advantage than is accounted for based on surface stats.
2) Pay attention to batter splits:
Let’s pretend Miguel Cabrera is healthy, and then let’s pretend he is facing a mediocre lefty on the road…and on the same day, Trevor Plouffe is facing a mediocre lefty at home. Let’s go so far as to pretend these two batters are priced identically. Who would you use? Miguel Cabrera, right?
Okay, I’ll be honest. I’d probably use Miggy as well. But here’s the thing: the gap between these two options is not as large as you might think.
In his career, Miggy has superb numbers against lefties on the road: .398 wOBA, 147 wRC+, and .230 ISO.
But let’s compare those numbers to Plouffe’s career numbers at home against lefties: .397 wOBA, 155 wRC+, .218 ISO.
The crazy thing? There is always a massive price gap between these two guys…and yet, Miggy’s ownership on the road against lefties will always be higher than Plouffe’s ownership at home against lefties.
John Mayberry has a .362 wOBA in his career against lefties, with a .263 ISO.
Jonny Gomes has a .374 wOBA in his career against lefties, with a .207 ISO.
Danny Valencia has a .378 wOBA in his career against lefties, with a .171 ISO.
At Coors Field against lefties, Wilin Rosario has a .464 wOBA, with a .364 ISO.
At Coors Field against righties, Charlie Blackmon has a .395 wOBA, with a .172 ISO.
Outside of Blackmon (who is always worth mentioning on a list such as this), all these guys tend to be severely underpriced whenever they are in the matchup mentioned above, as they are priced based off their overall numbers, rather than based off their numbers in this situation.
Which brings us to our final directive:
3) Don’t let a player’s price influence the way you value them:
This is probably one of the toughest lessons to learn in daily fantasy sports. A guy is priced at a premium level, we notice him, and we look for ways to fit him in our lineup. But would we be doing the same thing if the same guy were severely underpriced?
When Billy Burns price finally spiked to where it should have been for weeks, I noticed something interesting: his ownership percentage spiked as well. Seriously. He became higher-owned the moment he became more expensive.
If daily fantasy sports is all about finding the most production for the lowest price (hint: it is), how does this make sense? Did Burns become a better player because his price went up? Of course not! But the extent to which the public felt comfortable trusting him increased when his price backed up the idea that he was a solid play.
That’s only one example, but it is something that we see all the time: a player is severely under-owned while they are underpriced…then they suddenly become appropriately-owned (or even over-owned) as soon as their price rises.
One of the best ways to stay ahead of the field in daily fantasy sports is by finding the players who are priced lower than they should be priced. And in order to do this, you cannot allow “price” to be a foundational piece in the way you determine a player’s worth!
Trust your research. Find players who are priced lower than they should be priced. Then buy these players at that point, rather than waiting for their price to rise.
Those are some of the little things you should be looking to each day as you dive deeper into DFS success.
The more you strive to become a “DFS book that walks,” the more “little things” you will start to notice. And as you pay attention to these little things, and as you continue to build your overall knowledge in each sport you play, you will continue to build your bankroll. And you know what? As this happens, DFS will continue to become a whole lot more fun.