Primetime Parlay: Bengals vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:11:16

lamar-jackson-800x480

Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Cincinnati Bengals versus the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football.

After enduring a few less impactful contests, Thursday Night Football delivers this week with a pivotal AFC North Showdown. Despite a couple of losses in Week 10, the Bengals and Ravens look to stake claim to their position in the playoffs when doing battle in Baltimore. The Ravens come off of a puzzling loss to the Browns, while the Bengals lost at home to a surging Houston Texans team. A rivalry will be renewed as Lamar Jackson takes on Joe Burrow in primetime. Let’s review betting odds, injuries, and relevant statistics to make a same-game parlay ticket for tonight’s showdown.

Playing DFS tonight? Try out SimLabs, now in beta, to work on showdown lineups for tonight’s game.

Bengals vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay

FanDuel Sportsbook posts the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites on Thursday night. The spread is up from the initial -3 line despite much of the betting action siding with the visitors. Per SAO, 73% of the betting handle sits with Bengals for Thursday night.

At the time of this writing, the implied game total is 46 points — up from 44 points since opening. 63% of betting tickets and 71% of money lies on the over as the bettors expect plenty of points on Thursday night. With Cincinnati’s defense, this makes plenty of sense. However, as Baltimore remains the top-scoring defense in the league, the ability of the Bengals to score a pile of points could be questioned.

Tee Higgins will not play on Thursday night with a hamstring injury. Fellow WR Andrei Iosivas will also miss the game as much of the work will fall in the lap of Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Trenton Irwin. Trey Hendrickson will return for the Bengals, but fellow pass-rusher Sam Hubbard is ruled out.

LT Ronnie Stanley is out with a knee injury for the Ravens, and Marlon Humphrey is listed as doubtful. Lamar’s most important pass protector is a big loss, but the Bengals’ pass rush is nothing to worry about. Ranked in the middle of the league, the Bengals’ resurgence seems to be more associated with improved play by Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense.

joe-burrow-800x480

Let’s take a look at the offensive statistics for each team — including a drastic improvement from the Bengals over the last few weeks.

Cincinnati Offense
20th — 20.2 PPG (27.3 last 3 weeks)
24th — 4.9 YPP (6.2 last 3 weeks)
25th — 6.3 Passing YPA (8.4 last 3 weeks)
28th — 3.6 Rushing YPA

Baltimore Offense
5th — 27.0 PPG
6th — 5.7 YPP
5th — 7.8 Passing YPA
2nd — 4.8 Rushing YPA (5.7 last 3 weeks)

The Ravens’ offense continues to be dynamic while the Bengals continue to catch up. Even without Tee Higgins, Cincinnati continues to move the ball effectively and contend for a playoff spot despite a very weak defense. The Bengals are ranked 31st in yards per play, 30th in opposing yards per pass attempt, and 31st in rushing yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, the Ravens remain the top-scoring defense in the league. Baltimore is also the top-ranked defense with respect to yards per play. A helpful tenet of the defense is a continued ability to harass quarterbacks, as the Ravens are ranked third in sack rate. While the Bengals have improved, can they effectively move the ball against this team?

Statistically speaking, it might be difficult to find a path to success for the Bengals on the road on Thursday night. That said, divisional games are always tough and close. With so much riding on the result, who will come out on top? Let’s take a look at what ParlayIQ thinks about tonight’s game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Thursday Night Football

Flowers Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
Boyd Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
Hudson Under 22.5 Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers Over 51.5 Receiving Yards

Potentially the most dynamic option on the Baltimore offense, ParlayIQ projects Zay Flowers to exceed his receiving prop in 56% of simulations. Earlier in the season, Flowers notched 62 receiving yards on a small volume of targets.

Against the Bengals’ putrid defense, Flowers should find space to make plays. Lamar Jackson continues to play exceptionally well, completing a high volume of passes. Flowers just needs to get the football in his hands to dazzle. If Flowers can see 6-7 targets in tonight’s game, we can expect a big game from the rookie receiver.

Tyler Boyd Over 43.5 Receiving Yards

Speaking of receiving options, Tyler Boyd remains one of the more reliable options in Cincinnati. With all of the acclaim for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Boyd continues to make plays out of the slot.

Last weekend, Boyd saw 11 targets in Higgins’ absence. The Bengals were behind throughout the game and Joe Burrow had to attempt an abundance of passes. We could see a similar script tonight as it seems very unlikely that Joe Mixon will find plenty of room to run against the Baltimore defense. Instead, if the Ravens find a lead, Tyler Boyd is likely to receive plenty of attention from his quarterback in the slot as Trenton Irwin takes over Higgins’ outside position.

Tanner Hudson Under 22.5 Receiving Yards

Tanner Hudson saw 7 targets last week as the Bengals played catchup against Houston. Hudson continues to be featured more as the Bengals look to fill in for missing wideouts. That said, the Ravens are not the Texans.

The Ravens are sixth-best in the NFL with respect to yardage to opposing tight ends. Despite resting inside the top ten of most targets allowed to tight ends, the Ravens seem to be able to limit the damage from the position. We shouldn’t be surprised that the best defense in the NFL is effective against any position.

ParlayIQ finds the under on Tanner Hudson in 82% of simulations. That is one of the higher percentages I have seen in months. I can’t pass. We close our parlay with Hudson’s under.