Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Odds: Preview, Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-29 17:28:39

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds

On Sunday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs will battle at Arrowhead Stadium with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Cincinnati survived by a thread in the Wild Card round against the Las Vegas Raiders, and then took advantage of a few costly Tennessee Titans turnovers in the Divisional Round to get to this point. Kansas City easily handled the Pittsburgh Steelers to begin their postseason run, but needed overtime to emerge victorious against the Buffalo Bills. In this highly anticipated matchup, oddsmakers are expecting the Bengals’ luck to run out–pricing the Chiefs as 7.5-point home favorites on the spread. Let’s take a deeper dive into the data before revealing our free play on the game.

Bengals +7.5

Bettors would be hard-pressed to find a better collection of skill players than Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon. The primary concern for this offensive attack is a porous offensive line that has allowed Burrow to be sacked a total of 32 times in his last seven games played. Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry III, and Denico Autry led a vicious nine-sack performance for the Titans last week. Cincinnati is going to need a much better performance out of Jonah Williams, Hakeem Adeniji, Quinton Spain, and Trey Hopkins on Sunday if they hope to stay competitive in this one.

The Bengals defensive line has another difficult matchup this weekend against a strong Kansas City offensive line. Trey Hendrickson is elite at rushing the passer, but he is abysmal defending the run. Cameron Sample and Sam Hubbard are equally deficient stopping opposing rushing attacks. D.J. Reader is once again going to be tasked with the majority of the burden stopping the bleeding on the ground. Excluding Week 18 of the regular season, Cincinnati has allowed 4.9 yards-per-carry on the ground. Fortunately, the Bengals have been much-improved in the secondary during the second half of the campaign. Since Week 9 (excluding Week 18), Cincinnati is allowing only 6.9 yards-per-attempt through the air. Chidobe Awuzie has emerged as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL to anchor this pass defense that has the unfair challenge of slowing down Patrick Mahomes this weekend.

Chiefs -7.5

Mahomes was a mediocre quarterback for the majority of the regular season, but bettors need to give credit where credit is due. Since Week 14, Mahomes has posted a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. During his first two playoff games this January, Mahomes has completed 63-of-83 pass attempts for 782 yards, 8 touchdowns, and only 1 interception–averaging 9.4 yards-per-attempt. The Chiefs boast one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which certainly helps matters. Also an encouraging sign for Kansas City fans was the fact that Clyde Edwards-Helaire totaled 60 rushing yards on only 7 attempts against the Bills. If his role is expanded against the Bengals, he could be an underrated asset in this contest.

From Week 1 to Week 5, the Chiefs allowed 296.4 passing yards per game, 9.0 yards-per-attempt through the air, and a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed only 236.1 passing yards per game, 6.3 yards-per-attempt through the air, and has held opposing signal callers to a 23-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The main concern for this defensive unit on Sunday is on the ground. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers allowed more yards-per-carry this fall than the Chiefs. This group has shown little improvement over the course of the season defending the run, as they have allowed 4.7 yards-per-carry since Week 10. Other than Chris Jones and Melvin Ingram III, the personnel for the Chiefs is poorly equipped to slow down opposing rushing attacks. It is also worth noting that the Chiefs ranked 31st out of 32 teams in sack-rate this season. The Titans, who ranked 6th in sack-rate, were able to get into the Cincinnati backfield early and often last week, but it is unlikely to be so easy for the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.

AFC Championship Prediction

This season, the Chiefs have played at the fourth-quickest pace of any team in the NFL. Cincinnati ranked only 25th in pace, but still put plenty of points on the board with an extremely efficient offensive attack. Both of these offenses are far superior to both of these defenses in this matchup. Bettors should expect plenty of points in this one, with no shortage of elite skill talent on the field. Take the over.

PICK: Over 54.5

Image Credit: Imagn