Bengals vs. Ravens Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bengals vs. Ravens Odds
| Bengals Odds | +6 |
| Ravens Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Thursday, November 7 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 10 of the NFL regular season will get started with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson each led their team to a dominant win this past weekend, setting up a highly-anticipated primetime showdown between the former 1st round draft selections.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Ravens as 6-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, totals of 52+ on Thursday Night Football are 14-5-1 to the under since 2003. Also per Abrams’ notes, Burrow is 16-3 ATS in his career as an underdog of 3+ points. Jackson is 18-5 SU in night games during the regular season during his career, which is the highest winning percentage of any quarterback since the NFL merger (min. 15 starts).
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
Higgins listed as DOUBTFUL
Tee Higgins is officially listed as doubtful after failing to practice at all this week. Though the impact of wide receiver injuries are often overestimated for the offense as a whole, Higgins’ has been a rare exception. Cincinnati’s offense played well against a lackluster Las Vegas defense in Week 8, but they have ranked 24th in EPA/play, 12th in EPA/play, and 24th in EPA/play in the team’s other 3 games with Higgins sidelined.
In Higgins’ absence, there isn’t much wide receiver talent left on this roster, other than JaMarr Chase. Consequently, Mike Gesicki and the Bengals’ other tight ends have been forced into an expanded role in these situations. Gesicki, Erick All, Drew Sample, and Tanner Hudson combined for 13 receptions and 152 receiving yards in Week 9 against the Raiders. All was placed on injured reserve earlier this week, but the rest of the aforementioned tight ends should be plenty busy once again, facing a Baltimore defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the position.
What to expect from Bengals’ defense
Cincinnati’s defense has faced 4 offenses that rank in the top 15 in DVOA this season: Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens, and Eagles. In those weeks, the Bengals’ defense has ranked 14th in EPA/play, 32nd in EPA/play, 28th in EPA/play, and 32nd in EPA/play. In Week 5, four teams had a bye, so Cincinnati’s defense has technically posted the worst EPA/play in the NFL in each of their last 3 games against offenses ranking in the top half of the league in DVOA.
Tonight, this unit gets a very difficult assignment, facing a Baltimore offense that leads the league in DVOA. The Ravens’ offense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate as well, proving themselves capable of generating explosive plays but also converting consistently in short-yardage situations.
Playing on Thursday always induces an added layer of variance to all analysis, but this has the potential to be a bloodbath for Cincinnati’s defense.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Jackson enters Week 10 as deserving MVP favorite
Jackson has undeniably been the most productive and consistent quarterback in the NFL since Week 3. During that stretch, he leads all qualified quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt, EPA/play, and Success Rate. He ranks 3rd in Completion Percentage Over Expected and turnover-worthy play rate. Jackson has also been among the best quarterbacks at avoiding negative plays, with only 12.8% of his pressures resulting in a sack in that time period – the 6th-best rate in the NFL.
All of those fancy numbers are great in and of themselves, but even more importantly, they have led to wins. The Ravens enter play having won 6 of their 7 last games and have scored at least 28 points in each of their wins. This offense is firing on all cylinders right now and is proving to be nearly impossible to stop, regardless of opponent.
Concern for Baltimore’s defense?
If there is any concern for Baltimore, it’s their defense. Most people assumed that the Ravens’ defense would regress after losing last season’s defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, to the Seahawks this past offseason. However, few pundits or fans could have guessed just how much this unit would fall off.
Through 9 weeks, Baltimore’s defense ranks 14th in DVOA, 25th in EPA/play, and 11th in success rate. At this time in 2023, the Ravens’ defense ranked 2nd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate. Notably, this unit has struggled to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback, which is partly to blame for their struggles. They have finished outside the top 10 in defensive pressure rate in 6 of their first 9 games. Two of those exceptions were games played against rookie quarterbacks, further calling into question the capability of this pass rush.
Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction
Cincinnati nearly beat Baltimore in Week 5, but they still allowed 41 points, 30 first downs, and 520 yards of total offense in that game. The Bengals’ offense also had Higgins available in that game. Tonight could be a completely different story, with Cincinnati’s offense banged up and the team’s defense being forced to play a road game on short rest. The Bengals are 0-4 against teams they have played this season who rank in the top 15 in offensive DVOA, and they have allowed at least 37 points in 3 of those games. This game could get ugly.
PICK: Ravens -6 (-110, DraftKings)
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