Best NBA Player Prop Bets for NBA Finals - Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
What kind of performances can we expect during the NBA Finals from Nikola Jokic, Jimmy Butler, and their respective teams? Follow along as our NBA betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA Finals bets and DFS pick’em predictions. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more basketball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday and happy June 1! Tonight, the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will play Game 1 of the NBA Finals at Ball Arena. Miami, the 8-seed out of the Eastern Conference, is priced as a heavy underdog in this series against the Denver Nuggets, who had the best record of any team in the Western Conference during the regular season.
We are 94-82-1 on player prop recommendations to begin these NBA Playoffs. Below, we have a few more looks for bettors, including our pick to win this year’s NBA Championship.
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NBA Player Props Today
- Miami Heat (-1.5) Series Spread
- NBA Finals Total Games: 6
- Exact Order: G1 – DEN, G2 – MIA, G3 – MIA, G4 – MIA, G5 – DEN, G6 – MIA
- Jimmy Butler less than 112.5 points (Games 1 through 4)
Miami Heat -1.5 Series Spread (+610), FanDuel
The Denver Nuggets are 12-3 to begin this postseason, but it is worth noting that four of their victories have come by six points or less. Though the Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, three of those four games went down to the wire, meaning that the outcome could have gone in a different direction with only one or two different bounces of the basketball. Furthermore, the Nuggets were an uninspiring 19-22 on the road during the regular season, making it far from a certainty that Nikola Jokic and company are going to roll through this series with ease. If the Miami Heat can find a way to steal one game in the altitude to begin the NBA Finals, the Heat have a path to winning their first NBA title in the post-LeBron James era if they can take care of home court in Game 3, 4, and 6. At +610, there are worse things to do with money than to bet on the strongest culture and the best head coach in the entire league.
NBA Finals Total Games: 6 (+250), FanDuel
The best bet on the board ahead of tip-off in Game 1 of the NBA Finals is for this series to last exactly six games. The Denver Nuggets were below .500 at home during the regular season and they are only 4-3 away from home during the postseason. At a minimum, the Miami Heat figure to be able to win one of their two home games when the series comes back to South Beach, pushing the series to at least five games. The Heat are 6-4 on the road during the NBA Playoffs, making it more likely than not that they find a way to win at least one game in Denver in this series. Expect this to be a competitive battle between two well-coached teams, with six games being the most probable outcome.
Exact Order: G1 – DEN, G2 – MIA, G3 – MIA, G4 – MIA, G5 – DEN, G6 – MIA (+4000), FanDuel
If we are going to bet the Miami Heat to win this series, we might as well take an extreme longshot on what seems to be their only logical path to a championship. Coming off of a grueling seven-game series against the Boston Celtics, Miami is not in a good position to steal Game 1 on the road. However, being in the altitude for nearly a week will give the Heat a fighting chance in Game 2 of this series. If Miami can parlay that victory into some home cooking in Game 3 and Game 4, they will likely meet significant resistance from Denver, a strong home team, in Game 5 before having an opportunity to come back home to end things once and for all. At +4000, this is a worthwhile bet to consider if trusting Miami in this spot.
NBA DFS Pick’em
Jimmy Butler less than 112.5 points (Games 1 through 4), PrizePicks
As good as Jimmy Butler has been during these playoffs, averaging north of 28 points per game in the first four games of this series is a tall task. During the regular season, Butler averaged only 22.9 points per game. After averaging 37.6 points per game during the opening round against the Milwaukee Bucks, Butler has averaged less than 25.0 points per game in each of the subsequent two rounds of the postseason. There is no such thing as a lock, but this line is significantly mispriced at PrizePicks.
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