NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Bills-Bengals DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Bills at Bengals on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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The 5-3 Bills head to Cincinnati to take on the 4-3 Bengals in a rematch of the shortened game from last year after the scary Damar Hamlin injury. Emotions will be high, but this is a huge game for both teams, as the Bengals are riding a three game win streak to stay alive in the division, while the Bills are trying to stay close with Miami and not let the Jets keep pace. Joe Mixon is officially questionable but fully expected to play, and Quintin Morris is back for Buffalo for some added TE depth behind Kincaid. The Bills did not promote newly-signed Leonard Fournette, so he won’t make his debut tonight.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bills at Bengals Week 9
Currently, this game is sitting at a 50.5 total, with the Bengals favored by 2.5 points. This is the second-highest game total of the week and tied for the second-closest spread, so I’m expecting fireworks in this one, and it’s going to be tough choosing between which side to go heavier on in cash games along with whom to go with in the captain spot.
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($11,400) is the most expensive player in this game as he almost always is for showdown slates, and with three or more total TDs in four of his last five games, he is a cash game priority and likely the optimal captain play. The Bengals are allowing over 370 total yards per game, which is ranked 27th of 32, and the Bills’ 24 projected points will most likely all come from Allen in some capacity.
Joe Burrow ($10,200) is the fourth most expensive player and comes at a nice discount to Allen, but he does face a much tougher defense, as the Bills are only allowing 204.1 pass yards per game. I still like trying to fit him in cash games, as this game could easily turn in to a shootout. He is finally fully healthy and putting up numbers we’d expect of him, with 8 passing TDs over his last three games.
Running Back
Joe Mixon ($8,000) is one of the best values tonight, as the Bills are allowing 122 rush yards per game, and Mixon’s pass-catching ability gives him a great floor. He is an excellent cash game play to stack with Burrow and cover most of the Bengals’ offensive production.
James Cook ($6,200) continues to put up mediocre numbers, as he’s only seeing around 14-16 touches per game lately, and his limited usage in the passing game (just four targets over the last three games) has really capped his upside. Latavius Murray ($2,600) continues to get goal-line carries and is a decent GPP flier, while Cook is just too risky of a cash game play for me.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs ($11,000) and JaMarr Chase ($10,800) are absolute studs, and it would be great if we could fit both of them along with both QBs in cash games without having to use a super cheap captain or a couple of flex plays under $1,000 to do so. I think depending on whom you go with in your captain spot determines the one you should prioritize between the two top WRs, and personally I like going with the Diggs-Allen stack in cash games with one at captain. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), absolutely load up on Chase-Burrow in a variety of captain combinations.
Gabe Davis ($7,400) and Tee Higgins ($6,600) are two of the best WR2s in football and coming off a huge 9-87-1 line on 12 targets, Davis is easily one of the best GPP plays today if he doesn’t make your main build. If you decide to go heavier on Bengals in your cash game lineup, then I think Davis is a must for cheap Bills exposure. Higgins has a low floor, but his cheap price definitely makes him cash game viable.
Khalil Shakir ($3,400) had a breakout game last week with 6 catches and 92 yards, but he still remains very volatile and is a risky cash game play. Tyler Boyd ($5,400) is in a similar spot, as his floor makes him hard to use in cash games, but by all means have exposure to him in GPPs in stack varieties with Burrow and combos with and without Chase and Higgins.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid ($6,800) is easily my favorite cash game play under $7,000, and he’s the top value play from this game. The return of Morris shouldn’t affect his usage at all, and I think his 5-65-1 line last game is his floor today.
Irv Smith ($1,600) and the rest of the Bengals TEs are nothing more than GPP fliers at best.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not interested in either defense outside of GPPs, while both kickers have big legs and should have plenty of opportunities to be worthy of a flex play in cash games.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I think a 3-3 build is the best way to go in cash games, as both offenses are projected to put up a lot of points. I like having 1-2 pass catchers from each team stacked with their QB. In order to fit in both QBs and a top WR, I don’t mind going with a cheaper captain play with huge upside like Kincaid, Davis, Mixon, or Higgins.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Dalton Kincaid – Just too cheap for someone likely to see 7+ targets and plenty of end zone looks.
2. Joe Mixon – Also too cheap and my favorite Bengals p/$ play against a Bills defense worse against the run than the pass.
3. Josh Allen – If he’s not your captain, I’d make sure find a flex spot for him in pretty much every lineup.
4. Joe Burrow – With a 26.5 point team total, I just can’t see fading him in cash games, and Mixon’s receiving ability makes them a top stack duo.
5. Gabe Davis / Tee Higgins – Both come at fantastic salaries at likely lower ownership than Diggs and Chase. I’d be looking to use at least one for value in cash games.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Night Football
Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.
Also make sure to check out RG’s brand new SimLabs tool for creating lineups based on game simulations and your custom settings!