Bills vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions for Today

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-09-12 14:28:24

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Normally, Thursday Night Football lends itself to divisional matchups that are only as significant as their storied rivalry. This week, the NFL offers another doozy on Thursday when the Bills travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. The most likely AFC East champions will battle early in the season for what should be a pivotal game in the division. With plenty of offensive firepower, will we see fireworks? DraftKings Sportsbook seems to think so. Let’s dig into the matchup before building our Thursday night same game parlay.

Bills vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay Preview

ScoresAndOdds posts some interesting splits for Thursday Night Football. 74% of bets on the spread were placed on the Bills on the road. Despite all of the tickets riding with Buffalo, the spread continues to move toward the Dolphins’ side, likely due to 54% of actual dollars being bet on Miami. The sharper side wants the home team tonight.

Unsurprisingly, the public loves the over, while the higher volume of money was spent on the under throughout the week. Opening at 51.5, the game total rests at 49 or 48.5 depending on the sports betting site at the time of this writing. 72% of tickets were punched for points, while an overwhelming 71% of actual betting handle went to the under. Both offenses started slowly in Week 1. The Bills turned up the heat in the 2nd half of their matchup against the Cardinals. Miami relied on a long Tyreek Hill touchdown and defensive plays to get the job done against Jacksonville.

Injury news will not help Miami’s offensive resurgence at home. Raheem Mostert will not play due to a chest injury. DeVon Achane is a game-time decision with his ankle injury. Achane did complete a walkthrough on Wednesday, but fantasy owners and bettors will need to tune in for the final injury report. If Achane can’t go, Jeff Wilson will lead the backfield, with rookie Jaylen Wright likely playing the backup role. Malik Washington will not play with his quad injury.

For the Bills, Josh Allen has been practicing with a protective glove on his left hand after avoiding disaster in Week 1. Allen put the Bills on his back in the 2nd half to outlast the Cardinals, throwing and running for 2 touchdowns. Allen practicing means he will be good to go. Unfortunately, the Bills will not have Taron Johnson, meaning Buffalo will be without Matt Milano and Johnson to start the season. The Bills defense was oft-injured in 2023 and seem to be picking up where they left off. Ty Johnson will suit up despite a knee injury in Week 1 and will continue to spell James Cook.

Despite inefficiencies, both offenses ranked in the top 10 in yards per play in Week 1. The Bills got it done with their new-look receiver room. Keon Coleman led the group in yards and targets, with Khalil Shakir and Cook coming in 2nd in targets. Dalton Kincaid, a breakout candidate, only saw 2 targets for 1 catch. Allen ran the ball effectively, while Cook only averaged 3.7 yards per attempt. The Buffalo offense will need to clean things up if they want to keep pace with a very explosive Miami offense.

Meanwhile, the Miami offense was clicking despite not being able to put points on the board. Hill and Jaylen Waddle both accrued more than 100 yards, with Hill seeing 12 targets from Tua Tagovailoa. Tua played a clean game, throwing for 338 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. The Miami rushing attack struggled mightily against Jacksonville. With both top running backs injured, Tua might need to air it out on Thursday night to his elite receivers.

Let’s build our same game parlay for what could be a shootout on Thursday Night Football.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Bills vs. Dolphins

Josh Allen Over 37.5 Rushing Yards
Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 Receptions
James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards

Josh Allen Over 37.5 Rushing Yards

The receiving corps for the Bills has me puzzled to start the season. Keon Coleman led the group in targets in Week 1, but any of Josh Allen’s receivers could have a spike week. I am a bit weary of the Buffalo passing attack and will likely take the wait-and-see approach for the first few weeks.

However, I do not need to wait and see what happens with the Bills’ star player. Allen is going to make plays throughout the season, as he is the engine that makes Buffalo move. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants Allen to be aggressive and make plays. In a game against the other contender for the AFC East, I expect Allen to be all over the place on offense. I do expect the Bills to emphasize the run with both Cook and Allen.

I think this over is a good start to our same game parlay. Without a spread or total, we will not find any boosts because of negative correlation this week.

Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 Receptions

Jaylen Waddle saw 5 targets in Week 1 despite leaving the field to be checked for a concussion. He caught all 5 targets for more than 100 receiving yards. With a banged up running back room, Tua might be looking for his star receivers all night.

Waddle saw 5 or more targets in every game he played last season, except for Week 15, before missing the last 2 games due to injury. While Hill is peppered with double-digit targets each week, Waddle will still see 6-8 targets and has the big-play ability to make the most of those looks. If the Dolphins struggle on the ground, Waddle and Hill could be in for a big night and plenty of work.

We are going to avoid the yardage and just hope Waddle secures his 5 catches.

James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards

Finally, the wide receiver room for the Bills scares me. Yet, James Cook as a receiver does not.

Cook saw 3 targets from Allen in Week 1 and often saw multiple targets per game in 2023. With the Bills letting Cook…well, cook…I anticipate he will be more involved in the offense in 2024 with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis parting ways with Buffalo.

In a pivotal game, Cook should be heavily involved and doesn’t need that many catches to exceed this number. I won’t be shocked to see this hit in the 1st half.