NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Bills-Jaguars DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Bills vs. Jaguars on Sunday Morning Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The Jaguars get their second London game in as many weeks, this time facing a much tougher Bills opponent compared to the Falcons, who they easily beat last week. The Bills steamrolled through the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins after their shocking Week 1 loss to the Jets, averaging 41 points/game over the last three weeks and scoring 90 more points than their opponents. The Jaguars could have an advantage having played in London last week and being more acclimated to the time change and everything else that goes into international travel, but make no mistake, this is still the Bills game to lose.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bills vs. Jaguars Week 5
Currently, this game is sitting at a 48.5 total, with the Bills favored by 5.5 points. This spread would likely be closer to 7.5 if the Bills were playing at home, so at just 5.5, I think they’ll cover it if they play like they have the last three weeks. The loss of Tre’Davious White for the year with an achilles injury is another reason the Jags could make this a game, and the Bills will also be without starting defensive end Greg Rousseau. They will be getting Jordan Poyer back after he missed last week, and Von Miller is on track to play on some kind of a pitch count. The Jags will likely get Zay Jones and Jamal Agnew back after both missed last week (Zay the last two weeks).
Quarterback
Josh Allen is a cash game lock in pretty much every showdown slate he’s on, as he’s the most likely to put up the highest raw FPs than anyone on the field. If you don’t captain him, he should 100% be on your main build in a flex spot, and I can only see fading him if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) in GPPs and have some lineups that go heavier on Jaguars with Bills skill players as the bring backs.
Trevor Lawrence has been pretty average through four games, with no 300-yard passing games and just 4 TDs along with 3 turnovers. As the third most expensive player from this game against the best defense he’s faced so far, I wouldn’t call him a must-play in cash games, but he is someone worth having on some GPP teams with a variety of his main weapons in different combinations.
Running Back
James Cook is tough to predict as his true upside hasn’t really been shown yet since the Bills have had three straight blowouts, and week 1 was a really tough matchup with the Jets. If this game stays relatively close, then I think Cook could smash his $8,400 price, as he should see 15+ carries and 3-5 targets at minimum, with a great chance of finding the endzone at least once. If you don’t have the salary to fit Allen/Diggs then Cook is easily the best p/$ way to get exposure to the Bills offense in cash games. Murray ($4,000), and Harris ($3,600) are just touchdown-dependent GPP fliers.
Travis Etienne is priced just above Cook at $8,600 and is my favorite way to get Jags exposure without having to guess which of the WRs/TEs will have the best game. Etienne has seen 23 touches in three of the four games so far, and the Bills defense has been much worse against the run than the pass this year, ranking 20th in rush yards/game allowed at 118.5. Etienne’s usage in the passing game gives him a solid floor in PPR formats, and makes him very game-script proof, as he’ll be heavily involved unless it’s a huge blowout.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs is coming off a monster 6-120-3 game on 7 targets, and has now eclipsed 100 yards in three of four games this year with 4 TDs, and the last three games his playing time has been cut short due to blowouts. This is another great spot for Diggs against a Jags defense that has been worse against the pass than the run, allowing 238.3 pass yards/game, and with just a 5.5 point spread, there’s a good chance it won’t be another blowout and he’ll see 10-15 targets. Basically, do everything possible to fit the Diggs/Allen combo in your main build with one of them in the captain spot. Gabriel Davis ($7,200) is averaging just 4.5 tgts/game and isn’t trustworthy in cash games, but by all means use him in GPP lineups on stacks with Allen and in lineups that both include and omit Diggs. Sherfield, Harty, and Shakir are pure GPP gambles.
Calvin Ridley is the fourth priciest player in this game, and against the 4th ranked pass defense, I am only considering him a GPP play. His target share is also spreading out with the other Jags pass-catchers over the last three weeks, and now Zay Jones and Agnew are on track to play and eat up more of that share. Christian Kirk ($6,600) is over $3k cheaper than Ridley, and is by far my favorite Jags WR to use in all formats, as he’s seen 12+ targets in two of the last three games, and the quick pass game is the best way for the Jags to limit Lawrence mistakes and beat this Bills defense. Zay Jones ($5,600) and the other Jags WRs are just GPP fliers.
Tight End
Evan Engram comes at a fantastic $5,800 price tag, and is one of my favorite p/$ skill players on either team for cash games. With three straight games of 8 targets and 50+ yards, he has been easily hitting value. If he can find the endzone for the first time this year, he will smash his current price.
I have no interest in Dawson Knox ($3,800) as he is extremely TD dependent, but I am interested in Dalton Kincaid ($5,000) who is seeing more usage than Knox, and just has much more overall upside from an athletic standpoint. Using Kincaid and Engram will make it much easier to fit in the Allen/Diggs combo, and that is my favorite starting four for cash games.
Defense / Special Teams
The Jags DST is completely off my radar outside of a couple of GPP teams if you’re doing MME. The Bills DST is cash game viable at $4,600, and definitely worth having plenty of in GPPs. I’m a big fan of both kickers in this game, as they each have 50+ yard ranges, and using both of them fits perfectly with Allen/Diggs/Engram/Kincaid with Allen in the captain spot.
Sunday Morning Football NFL DFS Strategy
I’m a big fan of going 5-1 or 4-2 Bills stacks in cash games, while doing plenty of Jags stacks in GPPs with various Bills bring backs should be much lower-owned and definitely worth covering. The Bills DST / James Cook combo is a great correlation play in GPPs at much lower ownership than the Allen/Diggs combos, while Etienne and Engram are guys I like going overweight on the field from the Jags.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Josh Allen – Highest upside player that should be on pretty much every lineup you build.
2. Stefon Diggs – Like Allen, he just has too much upside to fade in cash games, and there’s enough value to fit him and Allen with one in the captain spot.
3. Evan Engram / Christian Kirk – Both are excellent values under $6k and $7k respectively, and great p/$ cash game values for Jags exposure.
4. Travis Etienne / James Cook – Would include Etienne on most lineups you can afford his salary, and Cook should be on plenty of GPP teams with and without Allen.
5. Dalton Kincaid / Both Kickers – Kincaid is a great cheap way to get another receiver stack with Allen in cash games, and both kickers have easy 10+ FP upside to fill out any final flex spots.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Morning Football
Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.