Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice for Monday Night Football (Bills vs. Jets)
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 6 finishes with an AFC East showdown between the Bills and Jets at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. It’s the second night in a row we’ll have NFL football in East Rutherford. Both teams come into the game on 2-game losing streaks, with the Bills at 3-2 and the Jets at 2-3. Despite the losing streaks, the teams currently rank 1st and 2nd in the division. With the Dolphins struggling with injuries and the Patriots sitting at 1-5, the winner of this game will be in 1st place in the division and a strong shot for the playoffs. The Bills are favored on the road by a point in a game with a 40.5-point total. Buffalo has a +36 point differential even though they are just one game over .500 and rank 5th in the NFL with 28.4 points per game, but the Jets defense will be a tough task for the offense, allowing the 2nd-fewest yards per game.
On the injury front, the Bills have RB James Cook and WR Khalil Shakir both listed as questionable. Cook was reportedly able to practice on Saturday and plans to play, while Shakir got in a limited practice session. The Jets are mostly healthy on offense. I’m guessing that Cook will play, but Shakir’s injury status could come down to the wire, so you’ll want to be sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL starting lineups page as inactives hit for the latest details. Also, don’t forget to use our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. Whether you’re a hand builder or an MME player, it’s the perfect tool to utilize.
Let’s sort through the slate and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
Bills vs. Jets NFL DFS Lineup Advice
Primetime Game History
Even though we’re only through 5 full weeks of the NFL season, both of these teams have already played two primetime games each. The Jets opened the season on Monday Night Football for the second season in a row this year in Week 1. Breece Hall came in as the most popular CPT in the DraftKings large-field contest (19.3%) while Garrett Wilson ranked 4th (11.6%) for their matchup with the 49ers. Aaron Rodgers came in with a low 5.4% CPT ownership, and the next Jet was surprisingly Mike Williams at 2.6%. Hall and Wilson made it onto the winning roster in the FLEX spots, but it was Jets WR Allen Lazard who was the winning CPT with 2 touchdowns. Interestingly, the winning lineup had Lazard at CPT without playing Rodgers in the FLEX.
The Jets’ next primetime game came in Week 3 against the Patriots. As 6.5-point favorites in a game with just a 39.5-point total, five of the six most popular CPT choices in the DraftKings large-field contest were Jets players. Breece Hall (23.5%) led the way again, followed by Wilson (15.1%), the Jets DST (6.0%), Aaron Rodgers (5.9%), and Allen Lazard (5.8%) – Rhamondre Stevenson was the only non-Jet in the top six with 14.1% CPT ownership. Rodgers was the CPT in the winning lineup, paired with Wilson and TE Tyler Conklin, along with the Jets DST as the team won 24-3.
The Bills’ last primetime game was 3 weeks ago when they demolished the Jaguars 47-10 as one of two Monday Night Football games in Week 3. With the Bills coming in as 4.5-point home favorites, Josh Allen (28.4%) and James Cook (15.7%) were the two most popular CPT choices in the DraftKings Showdown contest, with Khalil Shakir (5.2%) the only other Buffalo player with greater than 5% ownership in the CPT spot. Allen was the winning CPT in a lineup that featured Cook and Shakir in the FLEX spots, with backup RB Ty Johnson a FLEX differentiator with just 3.5% ownership.
Buffalo also played in primetime on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 on the road in Miami. Josh Allen (25.4%) was again the most popular CPT choice, with James Cook (6.5%) and Keon Coleman (5.8%) the only other Bills above 5% ownership at the CPT spot. In the game where Tua got hurt mid-game, there was a solo-millionaire winning lineup with DeVon Achane at the CPT spot with Allen, Cook, Shakir, and the Bills DST in FLEX spots.
Looking at these past Showdown contests, we again see some consistent themes. Pass catchers (including RBs) often end up in the CPT spot ahead of their QBs, with their QBs appearing in a FLEX spot. When we use a QB in the CPT spot, we want to include multiple pass-catchers from the QB’s team in the FLEX spots if they are a passing-oriented QB, but for rushing QBs, we can get away with just one pass catcher in the FLEX. We also see lineups that contain at least one low-owned player. Often, we don’t want to avoid chalk entirely, but it can be critical to find at least one lower-owned — but still viable — option, even if it is at the CPT spot.
How I Plan to Beat the Field
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
