Primetime Parlay: Bills vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks
ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool uses thousands of simulations of RotoGrinders’ statistical projections to help bettors gain on edge when building same-game parlays. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Thursday Night Football same-game parlay for the Bills vs Patriots.
The NFL has a penchant for offering divisional matchups in primetime. Often, those matchups leave plenty to be desired when one or both of the teams are having a rough year. Tonight, however, the NFL features the AFC East — a division surprisingly filled with potential playoff contenders in Week 13. The Buffalo Bills will travel to Foxboro to play the New England Patriots. The Patriots are coming off of a Thanksgiving loss to the Minnesota Vikings while the Bills righted the ship against the Lions earlier that same day. The Patriots need a win to cling onto playoff hopes while the Bills look to reclaim the top of the AFC East. Let’s preview the game and get into building a same-game parlay ticket.
Same Game Parlay for Bills vs. Patriots
FanDuel Sportsbook pegs the Bills as 3.5-point favorites on the road. The implied game total rests at 43.5 points with the price at -110 on both sides of the line at the time of this writing. Per SAO, 68% of betting money has been placed on the New England side of the spread, likely the cause for a big line shift from the opening -6 down to -3.5. The game total has also moved during the same time frame — down two points from the opening number at 45.5.
On the injury front, Trent Brown was added to the injury report Thursday morning with an illness. Isaiah Wynn continues to be out since his Week 11 injury. Mac Jones might be in for a long night missing both tackles. Additionally, Damien Harris is out with a thigh injury. Rhamondre Stevenson will re-assume the full running back workload. Jakobi Meyers is questionable with a shoulder injury but likely to play as he finished last week’s game after sustaining the injury.
Dion Dawkins is out for the Bills. Von Miller did not tear his ACL last week but is out indefinitely. The Bills signed Xavier Rhodes and John Brown from the practice squad ahead of this week’s game.
With this out of the way, we wonder if the Patriots’ stout defense can somehow keep the high-octane Bills’ offense at bay. Will the beleaguered offensive line for New England make Mac Jones a deer in headlights? Let’s build our same-game parlay ticket.
Same Game Parlay Picks – Bills & Patriots Props
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
We open with a parlay leg that was found in 70% of ParlayIQ’s simulations. According to ParlayIQ, Stevenson going over his rushing prop should be priced at -224. Stevenson should see an uptick in his rushing attempts as Damien Harris is out.
Stevenson has not done most of his damage on the ground. Instead, he is one of the league’s leading receivers at the running back position. If the Bills take a lead, Stevenson will be used as a pass catcher. That said, if the game is close or the Patriots somehow can get control of the game, Stevenson is going to be fed the football. His work might not be very efficient given the opposing defense, but the Patriots have been very content to play the ugly, grind-it-out type of contests. If New England can run the ball 30+ times, they are going to do it.
Josh Allen Over 45.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen continues to be a dual threat at quarterback and quite possibly the most dynamic player in the league. The Bills’ passing game is supreme and the ability for Josh Allen to break a defense down with his legs keeps defenses on their toes.
The Patriots play a high percentage of man defense which is the perfect fit for a running quarterback. Barring a spy keeping an eye on Allen, he will get his share of rushing yards when players’ backs are turned. When Josh Allen gets into top speed, we aren’t talking about short gains. Last week he averaged 7.8 rushing yards per attempt. Two weeks ago he averaged north of ten yards per attempt against the Vikings.
We include this leg and have plenty of rushing going on our ticket.
DeVante Parker Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
We need to include more unders in our parlays. Well, here is one that makes plenty of sense to me.
Given the issues with both tackles for the New England Patriots, the passing game could be in for a very, very long night. DeVante Parker is not a short, escape-valve receiver. Jakoby Meyers will dominate targets in the short area and could be peppered often this evening. The Bills’ defense, even without Von Miller, might completely shut down this passing game. I don’t have confidence in any of Jones’ options.
We add this to our ticket and look for one more under.
Devin Singletary Under 51.5 Rushing Yards
Devin Singletary has seen plenty of work as of late and seems to be steadily able to get into the 65-80 yard range. That said, the defense he will square off with tonight is not kind to running backs. Like Buffalo, New England stifles opposing running games. The difference, you ask? The Bills have other options.
The Buffalo Bills will not continue to run Devin Singletary into a wall if it isn’t effective. They will use the passing game and their myriad of options to move the ball down the field. As mentioned above, the Bills have the option of designing runs for their quarterback as well.
Will I be shellshocked if Singletary gets his share of work and eclipses this number given his recent form? Not really. That said, will I be surprised if the Bills find the path of least resistance? Absolutely not. I, like ParlayIQ, like the under and we will close our Parlay with this leg.
Since ParlayIQ was over the moon for our first leg, I am going to assume we are going to see a very big discrepancy between the recommended price versus the actual price.
Bills vs. Patriots Parlay Odds
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
- Josh Allen Over 45.5 Rushing Yards
- DeVante Parker Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
- Devin Singletary Under 51.5 Rushing Yards
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON
ParlayIQ recommends this price for tonight’s ticket:
Meanwhile, we see a huge discrepancy on FanDuel Sportsbook:
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +1269
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.35 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn