Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans Odds & Betting Picks (Tue, Oct. 13)
Tuesday Night Football — those are not words you hear every year. Of course this isn’t a normal year nor a typical football season.
The Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans game was pushed back after the Titans had in impromptu Bye in Week 4 following several positive COVD-19 tests in the Titans’ locker room. To add to 2020’s peculiarities, the Bills and Titans are a combined 7-0. The Bills haven’t started a season 5-0 since 1991, while the Titans haven’t started a season 4-0 in more than a decade.
So which of these two teams will remain undefeated — or more importantly for our purposes, cover the spread — as they move on to Week 6?
While the Titans might be tempting as home underdogs at online sportsbooks, the Bills who have two key advantages Tuesday night that can’t go overlooked.
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
Josh Allen Playing Like an MVP
In his third season in the NFL, Josh Allen is beginning to look like a legitimate MVP candidate. In terms of MVP betting odds, Allen (+1000) sits in front of Lamar Jackson and behind only Russell Wilson (+100), Aaron Rodgers (+300), and Patrick Mahomes (+550).
Aided by the offseason acquisition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Allen has joined the MVP conversation by completing over 70 percent of his passes, while averaging 331.5 yards per game. Allen has made huge strides specifically when it comes to his decision making, throwing 12 touchdowns to only one interception. Through four games last season, Allen already had six interceptions.
If Allen throws three touchdowns against the Titans, he’ll pass Jim Kelly for the most touchdowns through five games in the franchise’s history.
Allen’s improvement has produced results beyond his individual stats. The Titans are a top five offense according to offensive DVOA, and they’re scoring the third-most points per drive in the NFL.
That could spell trouble for a Titans defense that has struggled to slow down opposing offenses.
Making matters worse, the Titans will be playing without a handful of players who are forced to sit out after testing positive for COVID-19. Of those sitting out some are defensive players, including defensive linemen DaQuan Jones and Jeffery Simmons,and linebacker Beau Brinkley,
The players who will be tasked with filling in will do so with limited practice reps. Aside from a full practice on Saturday, the Titans have had more than two weeks off.
This is unprecedented so it’s impossible to know how they’ll respond to the time off, whether it be conditioning or merely maintaining chemistry and being on the same page when it comes to tonight’s game plan. Whatever the case may be, it can’t be a good thing for the Titans.
Bills vs. Titans Tuesday Night Betting Picks
Not all is fine and dandy for the Bills, though. Shutdown cornerback Tre’davious White is currently listed as questionable. If he can’t go Tuesday night, it’s a great opportunity for the Titans passing game, especially for A.J. Brown, who returns to the field for the first time since Week 1.
Brown broke out as a rookie in 2019, but he suffered a bone bruise in the Titans’ Week 1 win against the Denver Broncos. Brown gives Ryan Tannehill and this Titans passing game an immediate boost.
If Brown’s role is limited due to the minimal practice reps, look for Kalif Raymond to step up, as wide receivers Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Cam Batson remain unavailable. Raymond is a particularly good DFS play in tonight’s showdown contests.
Ultimately, I think we see the Bills take advantage of a Titans team who has only practiced once since Sept. 26. However, the Titans offense will be able to score points in the second half, and Tannehill will benefit from Brown and offensive lineman Taylor Lewan’s return. If White is out for the Bills, I’ll be adding an Over bet to tonight’s NFL betting card.
Bills -3.5
Over 52 (Specifically if White is out)
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images