In 2018, Patrick Mahomes defied the MVP betting odds allotted to him at online sportsbooks by being named NFL’s Most Valuable Player in only his first year as a starter and his second year in the league. I was lucky enough to bet on him before the season began. However, I didn’t have the same foresight a year later when Lamar Jackson completed a similar feat. Jackson, too, was only in his second season and his first as a full-time starter. The quarterback used his arms and legs to win the NFL MVP Award, cashing some monstrous 125-1 NFL betting tickets along the way.
[Read More: 2021 Super Bowl Odds & Picks & MVP Picks Ahead of Week 4]
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In 2020, young quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Josh Allen made a run at the award, but it was 37-year-old Aaron Rodgers who would walk away with the trophy at the NFL Honors. Ending the recent trend of young MVPs, Green Bay’s quarterback joined the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Johnny Unitas as the only three-time NFL MVP winners. Rodgers may no longer be in his 20s, but he opened with 25-1 odds at the beginning of the season, so it’s fair to say he was somewhat of a dark horse.
Will the recent trend of NFL MVP longshots continue in 2021, will the younger generation of quarterbacks take back the trophy, or can Russell Wilson finally add his name to the list of historic winners?
We’ll answer all those questions and more as we look at NFL MVP betting trends, break down some of the more interesting candidates, as we show you where to bet on the NFL MVP award, and conclude with NFL MVP picks and predictions for the 2021-22 season.
Let’s start with 2021 NFL MVP odds at online sportsbooks.
NFL MVP Odds at Online Sportsbooks
| Player | Odds (2/18/21) |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +800 |
| Josh Allen | +1100 |
| Russell Wilson | +1300 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 |
| Deshaun Watson | +1600 |
| Tom Brady | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1700 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 |
| Justin Herbert | +1800 |
| Kyler Murray | +1800 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +2500 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +3300 |
| Derrick Henry | +3300 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 |
| Carson Wentz | +4000 |
| Joe Burrow | +4500 |
| Jameis Winston | +5000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +5000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +6600 |
| Derek Carr | +6600 |
| Alvin Kamara | +8000 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +8000 |
| Cam Newton | +8000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +8000 |
| Sam Darnold | +8000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +8000 |
| Jared Goff | +10000 |
NFL MVP History and Betting Trends
- Quarterbacks have won the last eight NFL MVP awards
- Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to win MVP (2012)
- Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to be named Most Valuable Player (’86)
- No wide receiver has ever won the award
- Since 2001, only one NFL MVP has played on a team with fewer than 11 wins
NFL MVP Award Winners (2000-2020)
| Year | Position | Player | MVP Odds (Open) | Team (Record) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | +2500 | Packers (13-3) |
| 2019 | QB | Lamar Jackson | +12500 | Ravens (14-2) |
| 2018 | QB | Patrick Mahomes | +5000 | Chiefs (12-4) |
| 2017 | QB | Tom Brady | +400 | Patriots (13-3) |
| 2016 | QB | Matt Ryan | +7500 | Falcons (11-5) |
| 2015 | QB | Cam Newton | +5000 | Panthers (15-1) |
| 2014 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | +600 | Packers (12-4) |
| 2013 | QB | Peyton Manning | +600 | Broncos (13-3) |
| 2012 | QB | Adrian Peterson | +4000 | Vikings (10-6) |
| 2011 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | +400 | Packers (15-1) |
| 2010 | QB | Tom Brady | +800 | Patriots (14-2) |
| 2009 | QB | Peyton Manning | +500 | Colts (14-2) |
| 2008 | QB | Peyton Manning | +2000 | Colts (12-4) |
| 2007 | QB | Tom Brady | N/A | Patriots (16-0) |
| 2006 | QB | LaDanian Tomlinson | N/A | Chargers (14-2) |
| 2005 | QB | Shaun Alexander | N/A | Seahawks (13-3) |
| 2004 | QB | Peyton Manning | N/A | Colts (12-4) |
| 2003 | QB | Peyton Manning/Steve McNair | N/A | Colts/Titans (12-4) |
| 2002 | QB | Rich Gannon | N/A | Raiders (11-5) |
| 2001 | QB | Kurt Warner | N/A | Rams (14-2) |
| 2000 | RB | Marshall Faulk | N/A | Rams (10-6) |
Where To Bet on NFL Most Valuable Player
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NFL MVP Betting Odds and Candidates
Patrick Mahomes +500
Best Price: PointsBet
Implied Probability: 16.7%
Mahomes is hands down the best player in the NFL, and he was the favorite to win his second MVP title for much of the second half of the 2021 season. This is a slightly better price than he started Week 1 with last year (+400). Do I think Mahomes wins at least one MVP over the next four years? Yes. But given the uncertainty of the 2020 NFL season, I don’t want to bet on these short of odds. I’d prefer Chiefs +600 to win the Super Bowl instead.
Aaron Rodgers +700
Best Price: PointsBet
Implied Probability: 12.5%
An apology gesture on behalf of GM Brian Gutenkunst and the Packers’ front office is due for Rodgers. It could come in the form of a trade for a big-name wide receiver, which is the only rationale I can think of for this bet. It’s not that Aaron Rodgers isn’t a rightful favorite — he is. But if I wasn’t willing to bet on him at 25-1 odds last year, then I have a tough time pulling the trigger this year when Mahomes is the only quarterback ahead of him. I simply don’t see the value on a 38-year-old quarterback at these odds.
Josh Allen +1400
Best Price: William Hill
Implied Probability: 6.7%
Josh Allen looked great in 2020, leading the Bills to their first playoff win since 1995. The third-year quarterback set the Bills’ single-season passing yards (4,544) and touchdowns (37), while adding 421 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground en route to the AFC Championship. Allen looked mature beyond his years, but he’s a candidate for regression in 2021. I’d rather wait the first couple of weeks of the NFL season, hope Allen and the Bills have a rough start, and pounce on his MVP odds if they lengthen.
Matthew Stafford +1500
Best Price: PointsBet
Implied Probability: 6.3%
On the Lions, Stafford was a +6600 longshot to win MVP ahead of the 2020 season. We knew Stafford’s odds would shorten after being traded to the Rams, but I’m shocked by this adjustment. Stafford should be able to put up numbers, but I doubt he’ll be passing as much as he did in Detroit. The Rams have second-year running back Cam Akers and Sean McVay isn’t shy to run the ball.
Russell Wilson +1500
Best Price: PointsBet
Implied Probability: 6.3%
Russell Wilson has voiced his frustrations with the Seattle Seahawks for not providing better protection. Don’t expect anything crazy to happen, though. Wilson remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the Seahawks have no interest in trading him. Between the porous offensive line and Pete Carroll’s tendency to nonsensically establish the run, it will be an uphill battle for Wilson to join the MVP club. The hill steepened when the Rams, now favorites to win the NFC West, swapped Goff for Stafford.
Lamar Jackson +1700
Best Price: PointsBet
Implied Probability: 5.6%
In 2019, Lamar Jackson paralyzed defenses on his way to receiving unanimous MVP Award honors. Just 22 years old at the time, Jackson, who is still younger than the most recent No. 1 overall pick, threw for over 3,000 yards, ran for 1200 more to beat Michael Vick’s single-season QB rushing record, and accounted for 43 total touchdowns while leading the Baltimore Ravens to 14 regular-season wins, a division title, and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The same can’t be said for Jackson’s performance in 2020. The dual-threat QB stayed healthy, but he struggled to replicate the kind of production we saw during his MVP season. As we mentioned before things kicked off, regression for Jackson was to be expected:
“Mahomes’ touchdown percentage fell from 8.6% to 5.4% one year after his MVP season. In 2017, Carson Wentz led the league in touchdown percentage only to see it drop from 7.5% to 5.2% the following year. Jackson’s remarkable 2019 touchdown percentage of 9% is unlikely to hold up. That doesn’t mean he still can’t win MVP but it does mean it will at least be a closer race than we saw a season ago.“
However, the degree to which Jackson regressed was alarming.
+1700 odds still aren’t long enough for me to consider. I’ll juke Jackson’s MVP odds again in 2021.
Tom Brady +1800
Best Price: William Hill
Implied Probability: 5.3%
Tom Brady taught me a hard lesson in the Super Bowl. He may very well win another Lombardi Trophy — I certainly won’t count him out. A fourth MVP award, though? No way.
Dak Prescott +2000
Best Price: FOX Bet
Implied Probability: 4.8%
An injury derailed a monster start, at least statistically speaking, for Prescott but it didn’t appear the Cowboys would win enough games for him to make an NFL MVP push anyway.
The Cowboys offense is likely to put up numbers that insert Prescott in the MVP conversation, but with a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes in the way as well as question marks surrounding Prescott’s health and contract, I prefer backing someone quarterback with longer odds than those we’re getting here.
Kyler Murray +3300
Best Price: FOX Bet
Implied Probability: 3.7%
Kyler Murray became one of the most popular dark horse candidates to win the 2020 NFL MVP after the Cardinals made a blockbuster trade for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Halfway through the season, it looked like Murray might capitalize on the opportunity.
Fresh off a rookie season which included 3,700 passing yards, plus 644 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, Murray made a massive leap in his second year under Kliff Kingsbury.
The head coach’s fast-paced, spread offense which he brought with him from his years as college OC and HC continues to add to Murray’s intrigue and upside. The “Air Raid” as some call it, helped Murray earn Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, as the quarterback seemed to improve each and every week during this first year in the NFL. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough to get the Cardinals to the playoffs in 2019 or 2020.
And that remains the biggest impediment for Murray’s MVP hopes: Can the Cardinals and Kliff Kingsbury win enough games?
As I highlighted under MVP Betting Trends at the beginning of this article, only one MVP has come from a team that has fewer than 11 wins.
In fact, Arizona is picked to finish last in the NFC West again according to oddsmakers. Betting on the Cardinals +700 to win the division — essentially a prerequisite to Murray winning MVP — might be more prudent. However if you do insist on backing Murray, you’ll want to do so by signing up at FOX Bet where he’s listed +3300, which is an enticing price tag even for bettors who are skeptical of the Cardinals’ head coach.
2021 NFL MVP Betting Picks
Jalen Hurts +8000
Best Price: FOX Bet
Implied Probability: 1.2%
Looking for another longshot pick similar to Jackson in 2019 and Mahomes in 2018? Hurts is your best bet. The dual-threat quarterback is in the driver’s seat to earn the starting job in Philadelphia after news that the Eagles are parting ways with Carson Wentz. The Eagles will bring in competition, to be sure, but Hurts showed his upside during his brief time on the field last December. The Heisman Trophy finalist threw for 340 yards in two of his first four NFL starts while rushing for 272 yards and three touchdowns.
Hurts’ MVP odds have shortened from 150-1 to 100-1, then to the current number (80-1) following news of Wentz’s impending departure. Hurts is clearly a popular betting pick, and now, most of the betting value is already gone. I can still justify a bet at 80-1, but I suggest staying away if these odds get shorter.