Bills vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks & Player Props
Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season has already been a whirlwind, and the best is yet to come. Tonight, we get a special matchup between two of the best young quarterbacks in professional football—2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes and 2020 MVP runner-up Josh Allen —as the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. This game could go either way, so naturally I’m electing to assemble a Same Game Parlay on PointsBet. (Also check out this Bills vs. Chiefs preview)
A Same Game Parlay basically just means a parlay consisting of multiple correlated wagers from one specific game. It provides bettors with good options to bet a game—and piece together props into a parlay within that game—beyond just the standard spread, moneyline, and over/under totals.
Here’s an example of my Same Game Parlay recommendation for Sunday Night Football a couple weekends ago (between Green Bay and San Francisco):
- Green Bay Packers Total: OVER 21.5 (-140)
- ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER: Aaron Jones (-110)
- ANYTIME SCORER: Davante Adams (+100)
- George Kittle to Get 75+ Receiving Yards (-230)
Total Odds: +834 | Bet: $100 | Total Payout: $934
If you played this custom-made parlay, you would have woken up $834 richer the next morning. Same Game Parlay is a quick, easy, and extremely fun way of betting one specific game—and building a big potential payout—without being confined to the typical lines and spreads.
Let’s dive into our favorite Same Game Parlay bets for this exciting Sunday Night Football showdown, and let’s make some more money! F
Bills vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay
- Buffalo Bills Total – Over 27.5 (+105)
- Tri Bet 3.5 – Either Team Under 3.5 (+330)
- Margins 13.5 – Kansas City Chiefs 1-13 (+170)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Stefon Diggs (+100)
- Quarterback Passing Yards – Josh Allen Over 303.5 (-115)
- Receiver To Get – Tyreek Hill To Get 75+ Receiving Yards (-200)
- Receiver To Get – Travis Kelce To Get 75+ Receiving Yards (-200)
Total Same Game Parlay Odds (7 Legs): +5009
To Bet: $25 |To Win: $1,252.25 |Total Payout: $1,277.25
Buffalo Bills Total – Over 27.5 (+105)
I love the OVER in most primetime games this season, and I think this should be a high-scoring affair. But I see very little value in the Chiefs’ over/under of 30.5 (-110 O/-121 U). I do, however, like the Bills’ OVER of 27.5 points. I feel like taking Buffalo’s over here assures us a green checkmark if it’s a tight battle and/or if the Bills pull off the upset.
The way Josh Allen and the Bills have played since Week 2, this seems like a gimme. Buffalo put up 40 points last week against Houston, 43 the week prior against Washington, and 35 in Miami back in Week 2. Even more impressively, the wins over Miami and Houston were shutouts.
With Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Brian Daboll’s offense cooking, and Leslie Frazier’s defense also looking great, I like Buffalo’s chances of scoring four touchdowns much more than I like Kansas City’s. Go the path less traveled—pick the visitors’ over at Arrowhead.
Tri Bet 3.5 – Either Team Under 3.5 (+330)
Ever since PointsBet introduced its Same Game Parlay feature, I have been in love with Tri Bet props. A Tri Bet essentially lists three props involving one number, either 3.5, 7.5, or 10.5. Whichever Tri Bet number you prefer, you must pick either the home team, the away team, or neither team to win by that number. So, in this instance, I am betting that neither team will win by more than 3.5 points.
We already mentioned that primetime games are often high-scoring affairs. But primetime games between contenders are quite often close matches. With Mahomes and Allen both playing the quarterback position about as well as it can be played, and the plethora of skill-position players on both these offenses, I would not be surprised in the least if this one ends up decided by a field goal. Seven primetime games have already finished with winning margins of three points or less, including the Chiefs’ 36-35 Sunday Night Football loss to Baltimore.
Margins 13.5 – Kansas City Chiefs 1-13 (+170)
PointsBet allows you to bet on over/under points bands as well as spread margins. How cool! While I’m not sure who will emerge victorious in this one, I prefer the value I get with Mahomes and the AFC defending-champion Chiefs at home. Kansas City is 2-2 and hungry for a win, and I fully expect Andy Reid’s boys to be full throttle on Sunday Night Football.
This way, I can double-dip with the Tri Bet and essentially get great value on the Chiefs if they win by three. Between the +330 leg stipulating neither team wins by more than 3.5, and the +170 leg stipulating Kansas City wins by between 1 and 13, we have increased the potential parlay payout by a significant margin. Three props in, and we are already looking at a beast of a payday if all goes well. KC 31-28, anyone?
Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Stefon Diggs (+100)
Now we’re getting real funky. Part of the reason Buffalo emerged as a dynamic contender in 2020 was because of wideout Stefon Diggs’ breakout All-Pro season. In his first year as a Bill, Diggs led the NFL in catches (127) and receiving yards (1,535), and he added eight touchdowns for good measure.
This season, Diggs has just 26 catches for 305 yards and a score. Forgive the lazy narrative, but this guy is due for a touchdown. A wide receiver with the skill set of Diggs, with a QB as dynamic, strong, and efficient as Allen, just doesn’t finish with four touchdowns on the season. I think tonight will be Diggs’ get-right game of the 2021 season. Kansas City ranks second-worst in total yards allowed and total points surrendered, and Diggs has 13 career TDs in night games—sign me up for a big Diggs day.
Quarterback Passing Yards – Josh Allen Over 303.5 (-115)
Allen has just one game with 300 passing yards all season—he put up 358 and four scores in Week 3 against Washington. But in fairness, the Bills destroyed their competition the past three weeks, and didn’t need aerial heroics from their stud fourth-year signal-caller. Well, they will need as much as they can get from him tonight against the 2-2 Chiefs at Arrowhead.
Allen had nine games with over 303 passing yards in the 2020 season. Three of those games were decided by three points or less. As I fully expect this one to be a close, high-scoring contest, I think betting Allen to amass 303 yards or more is a very smart move.
The Bills almost exclusively depend on the pass in close games, as Zach Moss and Devin Singletary have yet to prove themselves as dependable big-game backs. And Buffalo has the skilled wide receiver trio of Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley, as well as emerging tight end stud Dawson Knox. The Chiefs have been gashed for chunk yardage all season—every opponent gives them their best—so I expect a boatload of yards tonight.
Hill To Get 75+ Receiving Yards (-200) and Kelce To Get 75+ Receiving Yards (-200)
Double-whammy Chiefs receiver props, for the killer closeout! If Kansas City changes the overall scope of its season tonight at home, it’s going to have to lean on its elite offensive weapons. We all know the kind of damage wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce can inflict, and I don’t think anyone in the world would be surprised if they both collected at least 75 yards.
Kelce, a perennial Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro, has averaged over 75 yards receiving per game in each of his past three seasons. He’s currently averaging 78 yards through the air per game, and he always gets up when the lights shine the brightest. I can’t remember the last time Kansas City played a big primetime game and got a dud from its dominating tight end. Kelce averages 80.6 yards per night game, so I think he’s a lock for another elite performance.
As for Hill, good luck defending this electric wideout on Sunday Night Football. The five-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro has one game with 186 receiving yards this season, and another with 197. He has caught 78.9 percent of his 38 targets through four games, and he’s always a threat to break off a huge play in a close game. I’m a little less confident in Hill here than I am in Kelce—Buffalo has yet to allow a top wideout to accumulate 75 receiving yards—but the Bills also haven’t faced anyone with even a fraction of Hill’s ability.
It’s a massive parlay, and there’s plenty of risks, but imagine the payout if you hit on this exciting Sunday Night lottery ticket! Even at $25, you’d be pulling in over $1,200! If you’re more cautious or conservative, knock out a few legs so you have a less lucrative but more probable parlay. This is your rodeo—you don’t have to follow this clown into the bull-yard!
TOTAL SAME GAME PARLAY ODDS (7 LEGS): +5009
To Bet: $25 |To Win: $1,252.25 |Total Payout: $1,277.25
Image Credit: Imagn