Sunday Night Football Picks: Bills vs. Chiefs Odds & Predictions
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
| Bills Odds | +3 |
| Chiefs Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 56.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct 10 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
The Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs will battle on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. Since the start of last season, both of these teams are 18-5, which is tied for the best record in the NFL, including playoffs. In this rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, oddsmakers are expecting a tightly contested affair, pricing the Chiefs as a field goal favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Buffalo Bills (+3)
After an embarrassing loss at home to open the season, the Bills have won three consecutive games, scoring at least 35 points in each contest. Josh Allen has not quite been MVP-esque this fall, but he still has an impressive 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and over 1,000 passing yards. Emmanuel Sanders and Stefon Diggs have both been excellent. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss form a solid running back tandem, despite experiencing poor offensive line play. Fortunately for Buffalo, their lack of talent on the offensive line is unlikely to be exploited against a pedestrian Kansas City defensive front.
Buffalo is the first team since the 2000 Baltimore Ravens to record two shutout victories in the first four games of a season. Though any shutout in the NFL is impressive, it needs to be pointed out that the Bills shutout the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 after Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out of the game in the early going with an injury. Last week, Buffalo held rookie Davis Mills scoreless. This secondary has played well in recent weeks, but a date with Patrick Mahomes is unquestionably their toughest test to date. Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds have outperformed expectations at linebacker, but they are yet to prove themselves against a contender. Micah Hyde has been arguably the best safety in football in 2021 and should be able to limit the deep ball opportunities for the Chiefs tonight.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Kansas City continues to have one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. Mahomes has thrown for at least three touchdowns in every game this season, pacing the league with 14 touchdowns through four games. He also ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,218 passing yards. Still, he has been uncharacteristically careless with the football at times—totaling four interceptions in just the last three games. Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith have been outstanding in the middle of the offensive line, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues to struggle on the ground. Against a strong Buffalo defensive line, expect Kansas City to lean heavily on the passing attack in this one. Mahomes and company should have little trouble exploiting Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace in coverage.
Defensively, it is hard to argue that there has been a worse team in football this fall. Cornerback Mike Hughes and defensive lineman Chris Jones have been decent, but nobody else on this side of the ball has contributed positively whatsoever. Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just under 70 percent of their pass attempts for a 104.1 passer rating. The secondary has allowed the most completions of 40 or more yards in the entire league. The Chiefs should be very concerned with the play of linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Nick Bolton as well. Kansas City is likely to struggle on Sunday to slow down the Bills potent offensive attack.
Bills vs. Chiefs Picks
This Sunday Night Football matchup features two high-powered offenses, which has understandably caused this total to be priced extremely high. However, as we saw earlier this week between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks, for a total to hit the high-50s, both offenses need to show up for 60 minutes. A slow start, inefficiency in the red zone, and a myriad of other factors could result in this game ending short of the lofty 57 points needed to hit the over. Since the extra point was moved in 2015, 57 has been the most common high-50s total in NFL games. Bettors should consider buying a point in this one to get on the right side of 57. Take the under.
PICK: Under 58 (-135)
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to struggle running the ball with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Mahomes has thrown for more than 300 yards in eight of his last 12 regular season games. He should have plenty of opportunities through the air on Sunday Night Football against a beatable Buffalo Bills secondary featuring mediocre cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace. There should also be plenty of chances to target the middle of the field with Travis Kelce in short-to-mid range situations. If the Chiefs are going to win tonight, it is more than likely going to have to be through the air. Bet on one of the best quarterbacks in football to have a strong game tonight.
PROP: Patrick Mahomes o301.5 passing yards (-115)
Image Credit: Imagn