Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bills vs. Ravens Odds
| Bills Odds | +2.5 |
| Ravens Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Sunday, September 29th |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills enter play as 1 of 5 remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. The Ravens earned their first win of the new season in Week 3, defeating the Cowboys 28-25 at Jerry World.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Ravens as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Josh Allen and the Bills enter play averaging a league-leading 37.3 points per game and will have an opportunity to move to 4-0 for the first time since 2020 when they face the Ravens this evening. Baltimore hasn’t been under the .500 mark through 4 games since 2015, but they are at risk of ending that streak if they can’t defend their home field on Sunday Night Football.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Allen early-season MVP favorite
Through 3 weeks of action, Josh Allen is the clear and obvious MVP frontrunner this season. He leads all qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and success rate by a wide margin. Only rookie Jayden Daniels has a higher CPOE than Allen entering the weekend, and of course, Allen is 1 of only 5 quarterbacks to still be leading an undefeated team this fall.
Allen hasn’t faced the toughest schedule to begin 2024, but it’s nonetheless extremely impressive how efficient he’s been in the immediate aftermath of losing WR Stefon Diggs and WR Gabe Davis this past offseason, who were the team’s top-2 receivers last year. Buffalo’s new-look offense has prioritized spreading the football around, which has made this group far less predictable, as 8 different players have 5+ targets already this season for the Bills, with 6 of those players having caught a touchdown. This is quietly one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in the entire NFL, and they show few signs of slowing down any time soon.
Can Buffalo’s defense continue to overcome the injury bug?
The biggest concern for Buffalo heading into this season was how their defense was going to fare with All-Pro LB Matt Milano beginning the year on injured reserve. Even more problematic, the Bills lost starting LB Terrel Bernard and starting slot CB Taron Johnson to injury in the first few weeks of the campaign. Incredibly, the Bills’ defense still ranks 7th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate through 3 games.
However, they have yet to be truly tested. They hosted the Cardinals in Week 1, a team that few pundits expect to seriously contend for a playoff spot. In Week 2, Tua Tagovailoa left the game early due to a head injury, forcing a backup QB into action. Last weekend, Buffalo hosted Trevor Lawrence, who has now lost 8 consecutive regular season games.
This Week 4 matchup against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens presents the toughest test yet for this defense. It’s worth noting that this unit struggled to contain the mobile Kyler Murray in the team’s season opener. Jackson could be in for a big day on the ground.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Jackson, Ravens beginning to figure things out offensively
Following back-to-back underwhelming performances to begin 2024, Lamar Jackson finished Week 3 ranked 3rd in EPA/play and 5th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks. His excellent showing helped Baltimore jump out to a 28-6 lead over Dallas by the end of the 3rd quarter, enabling the Ravens to pick up their first win of the new campaign.
Jackson reportedly lost weight during this past offseason, with the goal of being more dynamic as a runner this fall. Through 3 weeks, Jackson has 254 rushing yards, which is the 8th most in the entire NFL and by far the most among quarterbacks. Expect him to continue being aggressive with his legs in this matchup, with Buffalo being down a couple of starting linebackers.
The only notable injury news for the Ravens on the offensive side of the ball in Week 4 is the likely absence of starting LG Andrew Vorhees, who is officially listed as doubtful. Yet this could actually benefit Baltimore. Vorhees has struggled so far this season, but his backup, Patrick Mekari, is a high-quality veteran option who could potentially be an upgrade over what this unit has had in recent weeks at the position.
Baltimore defense missing Mike Macdonald
After having one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL a season ago, Baltimore has been very pedestrian on the defensive side of the football early in 2024. Through 3 weeks, the Ravens’ defense ranks 26th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate. They have really struggled to get pressure on the quarterback so far as well, which isn’t helping matters.
The obvious change worth noting is that the team lost last year’s defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks, who are 3-0 and lead the NFL in defensive success rate so far this season. There are likely to be continued growing pains for Baltimore on this side of the ball as they try to figure out their identity in the post-Macdonald era.
Bills vs. Ravens Prediction
Entering play in Week 4, Buffalo and Baltimore both rank in the top half of the league in offensive pace during the first half of games, which is a good indication of how they like to play in competitive game scripts. Assuming neither team ends up with a large lead at any point in this contest, it’s likely that we will see a high-scoring primetime affair. Josh Allen and the Bills are currently leading the league in offensive EPA/play and success rate while averaging 37.3 points per game. Baltimore’s offense ranks 6th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate through 3 games and should be able to exploit Buffalo’s weaknesses in the middle of the field in this matchup. The over should have a great chance to hit.
PICK: Over 46.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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