2023 BMW Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-08-16 13:55:13

This week, Joe Cistaro delivers BMW Championship golf betting picks as golfers prepare for Olympia Fields Country Club.

• Fifty players remain, with only 30 spots available for the Tour Championship.
• Olympia Fields Country Club will host the BMW Championship for the second time.
• In 2020, Jon Rahm won at Olympia Fields in a playoff with a final score of -4.
• Find out where you can test out Fanatics Sportsbook before the golf tournament begins.
• More BMW Championship details and tips below!

The penultimate event of the season is upon us in Illinois. The remaining 50 PGA Tour players will tee it up at Olympia Fields Country Club at the 2023 BMW Championship. Patrick Cantlay has gone back-to-back at this event, but a rotating schedule means players will face one of the stiffest tests the schedule offers. Jon Rahm survived Olympia Fields in 2020 in dramatic fashion. Who is going to take the crown and position themselves strongly for the Tour Championship? Let’s get into this week’s betting card.

2023 BMW Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – August 15th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 40/1 or better.

2023 BMW Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Olympia Fields CC (North)
• Date: August 17 – 20
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,366
• Greens: Bentgrass

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• SG: T2G
• Fairways
• SG: Putting
• SG: ARG
• Bogey Avoidance
• Proximity: 125-175 yards

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA Tour.

BMW Championship Picks and Predictions

Patrick Cantlay – Best Odds +1100 (PointsBet)

In our betting preview, I mentioned being partial to dropping down a bit off the top of the board for Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay seems to thrive in the FedEx Cup playoffs and went right back to his ways last week at the FedEx St. Jude. Nearly winning the event, Cantlay found water in a playoff with Lucas Glover and finished second.

Cantlay has won the BMW Championship over the last two years. The set-up at Olympia Fields CC is far more challenging, but that is by no means a strike against Cantlay. The defending champion might have the most balanced game on tour, driving the ball straight and long, dialing in approach shots, and handling all challenges around green complexes. He is a tough watch, but I think I am finally ready to pay up for a golfer as the season closes.

We open our card with 2.5 units on Cantlay.

Hideki Matsuyama – Best Odds +3500 (BetMGM)

Hideki Matsuyama closed last week’s tournament needing a very big Sunday to stay alive in the playoffs. His roaring back nine propelled him inside the top 50 with another week to play in the playoffs.

While Matsuyama hasn’t won an event since the 2022 Sony Open, his recent form has been sterling. The momentum he will surely carry from his closing nine holes is worth noting as he heads into another event with a “can’t lose” attitude. Matsuyama knows he needs to find the top of the leaderboard or his season is over.

In 2020, Matsuyama was one of only four players to finish the tournament under par. He has routinely displayed a penchant for playing well at tougher courses — gaining 1.4 strokes per round on the field over the span of his measured rounds in his career. He often springs up at the bigger events, at the tougher courses, and in the best fields. Check. Check. Check.

We are going to throw 0.75 units on Matsuyama this week on BetMGM.

Rickie Fowler – Best Odds +3500 (FanDuel)

We stay in the same price range and find a bit of a discount on Rickie Fowler. Look, the field is loaded. Rickie returned to form with his big win in Detroit. Since that victory, Rickie has fallen back a bit but played well overseas. After working through the emotions that coupled with his big win at the Rocket Mortgage, can we blame him?

Well, with only two events left for Rickie, it’s go time. Fowler, like Matsuyama, has always displayed a penchant for playing well on the tougher courses. A creative and solid short game takes you very far when your golf swing finally syncs up. Fowler has been phenomenal on approach all season and will need all of that and then some this week.

Given his season and his confidence, I think 35/1 is actually a very fair price. Three weeks ago this price would be inflated. Sign me up for the same 3/4 of a unit I paid for Hideki.

Wyndham Clark – Best Odds +4500 (BetMGM)

What if I told you, you could bet on a golfer who won an elevated event and the U.S. Open this season at a massive discount because of a couple of rough weeks?

Wyndham Clark broke out in a big way in 2023 and is already locked into his spot at the Tour Championship. He will play on the United States Ryder Cup team. He won a major. Why not add a FedEx Cup championship to the resume?

Clark has a game that fits Olympia. He sits third in total strokes gained over his last 24 rounds with the highest total in the short game category. Very long off the tee, Clark’s approach ability and ball-striking have been awe-inspiring this season. When he is off, his short game and putter have been elite. Given the difficulty that Olympia Fields will present, I love including a guy at a bargain price who already conquered two of the tougher tests of the season.

We will add Clark to our card for a very modest 0.6 units.

Matthew Fitzpatrick – Best Odds +5500 (Caesars)

Finally, we throw in a fifth outright because we are getting close to the end of the season. We are also including this fellow because of his past and not necessarily his current form.

Matt Fitzpatrick offers a very exciting price, given his form this season. That said, there are only a few golfers in the field who have thrived on more difficult courses like Fitzpatrick has over his career. Winning the 2022 PGA Championship gave Matt his first signature win at a wildly formidable Brookline Country Club. Olympia Fields is going to force golfers to fight for pars. Over his last measured 100 rounds at “difficult” courses, Fitzpatrick has gained 1.7 strokes per round on the field.

When the going gets tough, Fitzy gets going. Needing a big finish to make it to East Lake, he is a no-brainer add at a cheap price.

2023 BMW Championship Betting Card

BMW Total Units in Play – 5.1

2023 Net Units: +10.2

When we last built a card before a trip to Las Vegas, we struck out, bringing our season total to 10.2 units. I don’t anticipate adding anything this weekend as I normally don’t love to do so in a no-cut event. Instead, we will let these 5.1 units get to work and hope to close the season with a big profit.

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Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

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