FedEx Cup Golf Picks: Illinois Online Sports Betting Tees Off Ahead of BMW Championship

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2020-08-27 23:44:11

One week down, two more to go in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. While we didn’t select the winner in our original six-pack of golf betting picks last week, we were able to get a live bet on Dustin Johnson +1800 ahead of Friday’s second round. Johnson’s dominance during the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs helped net us +12.90 units for the week, bringing our figure to +35.05 units for the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season.

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This week, the remaining top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings head to Olympia Fields Country Club in the suburbs of Chicago, IL for the 2020 BWM Championship.

Speaking of Chicago…Illinois online sports betting is live, just in time for the BMW Championship! In fact, BetRivers and DraftKings Sportsbook each have BMW Championship golf odds available for Illinois sports bettors.

Whether you’re sports betting in Illinois or elsewhere with legal sportsbooks in the U.S., here’s what you need to know before making your 2020 BMW Championship golf picks.

BMW Championship Course — Illinois’ Olympia Fields CC

Originally designed by Willie Park Jr. in 1915, Olympia Fields Country Club is a 7,300-yard par 70. Golfers will be hitting from tree-lined fairways into Bentgrass greens that have a pinch of poa annua.

The course’s two par 5s both stretch past 600 yards, and a closing 510-yard par 4 will test golfers as they finish their rounds Thursday through Sunday. Remember, this is a no-cut event so all 70 golfers will spend their weekend in Illinois. With mobile registration now available to Illinois residents and visitors alike, who knows, a few of them might even sign up to bet on the Stanley Cup, NBA Playoffs or NFL futures.

It’s Olympia Fields’ first time to host the BMW Championship, and course history is thin as the Midwest golf venue hasn’t been on the Tour schedule since hosting the U.S. Open in 2003.

Though the Olympia Fields has been absent on Tour, a handful of young players in this week’s field have visited Illinois to play on the state’s classic course thanks to notable amateur events, including a U.S. Amateur Championship and the University of Illinois’ Fighting Illini Invitational.

Matthew Wolff won the 2018 Olympia Fields Illini Invitational and his Oklahoma State teammate, Viktor Hovland, finished T6. Recent major champion Collin Morikawa finished runner-up in the same NCAA event. Cameron Champ won at Olympia Fields during the 2016 invitational while playing for Texas A&M, and Bryson DeChambeau won the 2015 U.S. Amateur Championship here. Don’t go chasing this course history narrative, though. All of these golfers were among the best amateur golfers at the time, so it’s not surprising they were at the top of these leaderboards. Additionally, they may see increased PGA DFS ownership due to, what I think, is rather meaningless data points.

Not that we should take too much away from a tournament held 15 years ago, but among the golfers who played at the 2003 U.S. Open, only three are on this week’s field — Tiger Woods, Paul Casey and Adam Scott. Woods finished T20 at the time, while Casey and Scott both missed the cut. The 2003 U.S. Open winner was Jim Furyk (-8), which might trick you into believing Olympia Fields will play as more of an accuracy course where short hitters can compete. However, Olympia Fields has stretched its yardage since Furyk’s win. I’m giving an edge to bombers considering the length of some of these holes.

This year golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman opened the winning score prop at Over/Under 269.5 at SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, where he serves as V.P. of Risk Management.

However, something to be cognizant of when betting on this golf prop is that BMW Championships have traditionally been birdie-fests. In fact, each of the past five BMW Championship winners has shot at least 20-under. Justin Tgomas shot 25-under in 2019 to beat the field by three strokes at Medinah Country Club, a course where Tiger Woods shot 18-under to beat the field by 5 strokes at the 2006 PGA Championship. My guess is the BMW Championship will again set up for its fair share of birdies, with possible soft conditions brought via rain showers Thursday and Friday, giving us a winning score of 11 to 13-under.

2020 BMW Championship Golf Betting Picks

These golf odds are accurate as of early Tuesday morning and subject to change.

Rory McIlroy +1800

Seven golfers sit ahead of Rory McIlroy with shorter golf odds at BetRivers Sportsbook. Per golfodds.com, McIlroy hasn’t had these long of odds since the Open Championship in 2018, the same season McIlroy carried a +1600 price tag into the Arnold Palmer Invitational before winning it. Granted, McIlroy finds himself with long odds (at least by his standards) thanks to a string of underwhelming performances going back to the PGA Tour restart in June. In his seven tournaments following the Covid-induced golf hiatus, McIlroy’s best finish is a T11 at the Travelers Championship. Of his six other appearances, the former World no. 1 doesn’t even have a top 25. So why are we betting him in Illinois at the BMW Championship? Well, for one, he’s still Rory McIlroy. Look no further back than last week to see a premier example of buying low on an elite golfer, in hopes of a return to form, paying off. And remember, before the impromptu hiatus, McIlroy recorded seven consecutive top 5s, including two wins. And did I mention McIlroy is a two-time FedEx Cup champion? McIlroy commented on his recent struggles, saying he has had difficulty inspiring himself without crowds. Defending his 2019 FedEx Cup title and acquiring another $15M check might be the motivation the Irishman needs to look like himself again.

Buy low by betting on Rory McIlroy +1800 to win the BMW Championship at BetRivers Sportbook.

Collin Morikawa +2500

We included Morikawa +2500 last week only to see him miss the cut in his first appearance since winning the PGA Championship. A Wanamaker hangover is understandable for a 23-year-old, though. I certainly won’t be one to hold it against him. After all, the last time Morikawa lost strokes on his approach shots like he did in Boston, he more than made up for it in his next tournament by winning the Travelers Championship

Tony Finau +4000

Finau made five consecutive cuts before missing the weekend at the Northern Trust. That five-week span included a T4 at the PGA Championship, T3 at the 3M Open and an 8th at the Memorial. It’s been Finau’s best season yet, but he’s still searching for his first PGA Tour victory since winning the Puerto Rico Open in 2016, which as an alternate event to the WGC-Dell Match Play doesn’t hold the weight of a typical PGA Tour victory. Finau’s game has been great from tee to green in 2020, and he hasn’t been bad with the short stick. That wasn’t true last week, as Finau lost nearly four strokes putting in rounds 1 and 2. If Olympia Fields plays difficult, Finau will be just fine. Count on him to continue to hammer the ball and gain strokes on his approach shots. Let’s hope his recent putting woes were merely short-lived hiccups. A win in Illinois will remove the monkey from his back.

Remember to sign up at BetRivers to get these odds!

Tyrell Hatton +5000

Having quite the year, Hatton ranks 22nd in ball-striking and 14th in strokes gained approach among the field at the BMW Championship. He comes off a T25, where he gained strokes across the board. Hatton is +5000 at FOX Bet compared to as short as +3300 at other online sports betting sites. I like the value in this smaller field.

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Gary Woodland +9000

Despite struggling in recent weeks, Woodland is 10th in the field when it comes to strokes gained approach this season. There’s not much about his current form to like, but +9000 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are as long we’ve seen since what feels like his 2019 U.S. Open win. I don’t expect to see them again anytime soon.

Bet on these odds at FanDuel Sportsbook!