Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Game 3 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Braves vs. Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | +105 |
| Phillies Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Wed, Oct.11 |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
On Monday, the Philadelphia Phillies appeared to be en route to a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Atlanta Braves. Then, Austin Riley hit a go-ahead two-run home run in the eighth inning and Michael Harris made a heroic, game-saving catch for Atlanta in the top of the ninth to even the series at a game apiece. On Wednesday, these two clubs will play Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch is set for 5:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -125 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder gets the ball for Braves in Game 3
Bryce Elder was fantastic to begin 2023, but he regressed sharply during the second half of the campaign. In his first 17 starts, Elder posted a 2.45 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. Across his final 14 turns through the rotation, he struggled to a 5.75 ERA, 5.37 FIP, and 1.47 WHIP. During that stretch, Elder generated fewer swings at pitches outside of the strike zone, allowed more contact on pitches inside the strike zone, and earned fewer swinging strikes overall.
During the regular season, Elder was vulnerable against both right- and left-handed batters, and his numbers on the road are less than desirable for someone being trusted to start a postseason contest. Expect manager Brian Snitker to have a short leash on Elder this evening, especially with a rested bullpen at his disposal.
Atlanta’s offense coming to life
There has been fervent discussion during the last few days about whether or not the top-seeded teams in the MLB Postseason were at an offensive disadvantage due to the long layoff between the end of the regular season and their first playoff game. Success in baseball is predicated on repetition, which the 1-seeded Braves were not afforded during a near weeklong break without a game.
In Game 1, the Braves were shutout at home for the first time since 2021. In Game 2, Atlanta had no runs through five innings and found themselves flirting with being no-hit into the sixth inning. However, they found life in the latter frames, scoring five runs off of the Philadelphia bullpen to tie the series.
This Atlanta offense is coming off of a historic regular season in which they had five players drive in at least 97 runs, and seven players finish the year with an .808 OPS or better. The longer this series goes on, the more life we should expect to see from this lineup that has plus-talent from top-to-bottom.
Atlanta’s bullpen likely to be heavily used on Wednesday
Manager Brian Snitker has a history of using his top relievers on a near every-game basis during the playoffs, and tonight is unlikely to be any different. After Max Fried lasted only four innings on Monday, the Braves’ relief corps allowed no earned runs (one earned run) across five innings to keep their team from falling into a dreaded 0-2 hole in this five-game series.
Most importantly, Snitker received quality innings from Kirby Yates, Joe Jimenez, and Pierce Johnson, which combined to form a quality bridge to A.J. Minter and Rasiel Iglesias in the eighth and ninth inning. Across the final month of the regular season, only the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels (both non-playoff teams) had a worse bullpen FIP than Atlanta. During that time period, the Braves ranked 28th in FIP, 24th in WHIP, 14th in strikeout rate, and 11th in walk percentage.
If this unit can put their September struggles behind them, that would go a long way towards helping them compete in Game 3, with Elder likely on a very short leash.
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola looking to build on postseason success
In the Wild Card round, Aaron Nola blanked the Miami Marlins across seven innings in what was one of his best starts of 2023. Yet, it is far from a certainty that we will see that version of Nola again on Wednesday night against a much more dangerous Atlanta offense.
Following the All-Star break, Nola struggled to a 4.58 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP. Though he continued to be aggressive in the strike zone, he allowed an abundance of hard contact. Nola finished the regular season ranked in the 41st percentile in average exit velocity and 41st percentile in Hard-Hit percentage.
Nola has faced the Braves three times this year, with a mixed bag of results. He allowed five earned runs in six innings in his first start against Atlanta, but only two earned runs across 12.0 innings in his latter two outings. Nola was at his best at home this season – posting a 3.40 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, and allowing a .212 opponent batting average. There is a wide range of potential outcomes for the Phillies’ co-ace in Game 3.
Philadelphia offense continues to put pressure on their opponents
Despite losing Game 2, Philadelphia had more hits and at-bats with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP) than Atlanta. The Phillies also stole a pair of bases on Monday evening. The issue was simply that the Phillies left 11 men-on-base compared to the Braves leaving two men-on-base.
Heading into Game 3, Philadelphia’s offense projects well, due to their ability to steal bases and hit for extra-bases all throughout the lineup. In two games against Miami, Philadelphia had 23 at-bats with runners in scoring position. In the first two games against Atlanta, Philadelphia had another 16 at-bats with a man on second or third base.
If the Phillies can break out of their slump with RISP (9-for-39, .230 batting average), they could finally have a breakout game at the dish. This lineup is simply too talented to continue coming up short in these key situations.
Phillies’ bullpen looking to get back on track
After a strong start to the playoffs, Philadelphia’s bullpen failed to do their job in Game 2 against Atlanta – allowing an eighth-inning home run to Austin Riley, which ended up being the game-winning hit. Still, Phillies’ fans should not panic heading into Game 3.
First of all, the entirety of the damage done against the Phillies bullpen on Monday happened on one pitch. Jeff Hoffman missed his location on a 3-2 slider, which led to two runs, but the rest of the bullpen performed well. Jose Alvarado and Gregory Soto did not allow a single baserunner in their 1.1 innings of work. In Game 1, Philadelphia’s bullpen covered 5.1 innings without giving up a run.
After an off-day on Tuesday, this group is in good shape tonight as they look to regain control of the series.
Phillies vs. Braves – Picks & Predictions
During the regular season, Atlanta scored 947 runs, which was 41 more runs than the next-best team. They finished the year ranked 1st in OPS and 1st in ISO against right-handed pitching. Though the Braves’ offense struggled mightily through the first game-and-a-half of this series, it likely had more to do with rust than anything else. This is a dangerous lineup from top-to-bottom, with the potential to do damage against even the most talented pitchers in the game. Their team total is worth a small stab in this spot.
PICK: Braves Team Total o3.5 Runs (-160, Fanatics Sportsbook)