Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Preview, Game 4 Picks & Prediction
Brewers vs. Braves Odds
| Brewers Odds | +132 |
| Braves Odds | -156 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 12 |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Tuesday afternoon, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves will battle in the National League Division Series at Truist Park. Entering play, Milwaukee has lost 12 of their last 17 contests. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 17 games. In Game 4, the Brewers will send Eric Lauer to the hill. He will be opposed by Charlie Morton, who will try to advance Atlanta to the National League Championship series. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Braves advancing to the next round of the postseason, pricing Atlanta as -156 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Milwaukee Brewers (+132)
Across 118.2 innings of work in 2021, Lauer posted a 3.19 ERA, 3.92 xERA, and a 4.04 FIP. However, he was atrocious when pitching on the road, delivering a 4.53 FIP. Since the beginning of August, Lauer has pitched well with a 2.48 ERA and a 3.35 FIP, but he has an extremely difficult assignment against a talented Atlanta lineup in this one. His inability to generate many swings-and-misses could leave him vulnerable to an opposing lineup with plenty of pop.
Milwaukee ranked 15th in OPS, 16th in ISO, seventh in walk-rate, and 19th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching during the regular season. However, the Brewers struggled mightily at the plate in September, and those struggles have carried over into the postseason. In Game 1, this lineup produced only two runs on five hits. On Saturday, this group was even worse—totaling only six hits in a shutout loss. Ian Anderson, the most hittable starting pitcher that Milwaukee had seen in this series, held the Brewers scoreless yesterday. Milwaukee has zero hits with runners in scoring position in the division series. It is unlikely that a date with the always tough, Morton, will be a remedy for their offensive woes.
Over the final month of the regular season, Milwaukee’s relief corps ranked 27th in bullpen FIP. Devin Williams landing on the injured list prior to the postseason did nothing to help a unit that has been a liability in recent weeks. Outside of Josh Hader, there are few trustworthy options for Manager Craig Counsell to turn to in the latter frames. “(player-popup #adrian-houser)Adrian Houser”:/players/adrian-houser-31643’s ineffectiveness was the deciding factor yesterday after Peralta was removed in the fifth inning. Milwaukee’s recipe for success relies precariously on the unlikely probability that Lauer’s is able to get deep into this ballgame, to minimize the exposure of this unit before Hader can get into the action.
Atlanta Braves (-156)
In 33 starts this year for Atlanta, Morton was outstanding with a 3.34 ERA, 3.12 xERA, and a 3.17 FIP. He ranked in the 78th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, and strikeout percentage. At Truist Park, he posted a 3.35 FIP and a 1.06 WHIP. In his last 12 trips to the mound during the regular season, he delivered a 2.71 ERA and a 2.64 FIP. Morton was dominant the first time he saw Milwaukee in this series—turning in a quality start in which he made only one costly mistake, a two run home run that cost Atlanta a win. Bettors should expect a strong outing from Morton in Game 4 against a weak Milwaukee lineup.
Against left-handed pitching this year, Atlanta ranked 20th in OPS and fourth in ISO, but also ranked 10th in walk-rate, and 13th in strikeout percentage at the plate. This lineup profiles well against a pitcher such as Lauer, who struck-out only 23.9 percent of hitters who he faced this year. The Braves have the better offense on paper, despite scoring only seven runs on 19 hits in the first three games of this series. Today could be the day that this offense finally breaks out.
In September, Atlanta’s relief corps ranked ninth in bullpen FIP. Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, Will Smith, and A.J. Minter combine to form a formidable unit in the late innings. Manager Brian Snitker used both Matzek and Jackson in each of the first three games, putting their availability for Tuesday in question. If the Braves are forced to rely on other options in the latter frames, Milwaukee could capitalize offensively.
Game 4 Picks
Atlanta has the better starting pitcher and the better offense in this matchup. There are legitimate concerns in the late innings, due to Snitker’s heavy reliance on Matzek, Jackson, and Smith in this series to this point. Lauer was solid down the stretch this year, but he is likely to find it difficult to slow down an Atlanta offense with plenty of power. At first pitch, the temperature is forecasted to be in the mid-70s with moderate humidity—great hitting conditions. Bettors should trust the Braves offense to get on the board early in this contest, but avoid bullpen concerns by cutting this game in half at the sportsbook.
PICK: Under 4.5, First 5 innings (-128), Braves ML, First 5 innings (-170)
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