Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Thursday, August 19th

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-08-19 19:57:34

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews tonight’s Brewers vs. Cardinals matchup. Follow along as he breaks down the odds and deals a pair of free baseball picks for Thursday night. Also don’t miss this ridiculous welcome promo, a $5,000 risk-free bet from Caesars!

Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds

On Thursday evening, the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals will conclude a three-game set at Busch Stadium. On Tuesday night, Milwaukee won a 2-0 pitchers’ duel, and came from behind to win yesterday’s ballgame 6-4 in extra innings. In the series finale, Milwaukee will send Brandon Woodruff to the hill, who will be countered by Jon Lester. Oddsmakers are expecting a sweep with the Brewers listed as heavy -200 favorites on the money line.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Milwaukee Brewers

Woodruff is firmly entrenched in the Cy Young conversation as the season begins to enter its homestretch. Through 23 turns in the rotation, he owns an outstanding 2.18 ERA, 2.99 xERA, and a 2.75 FIP. Woodruff ranks in the 85th percentile with a 29.9 strikeout-percentage, and ranks in the 75th percentile with a 6.6 percent walk-rate. He also ranks in the 72nd percentile or better in average exit-velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, and chase rate. Only twice this year has Woodruff allowed more than three earned runs in a start—once at Coors Field and once against the New York Mets. In his last six trips to the mound, he has a 2.45 ERA and a 2.75 FIP.

Woodruff is supported by an offensive attack that ranks sixth in OPS over the last seven days and fifth over the last two weeks. If there is any concern for this lineup, it is that they rank only 19th in OPS and 18th in ISO against left-handed pitching in 2021. Still, they should be able to generate a few run-scoring opportunities against Lester, who has posted a FIP that is 26 percent below league average this season.

St. Louis Cardinals

Lester carries a 5.32 ERA, 5.20 xERA, and a 5.37 FIP into action today. He ranks in the 39th percentile or worse in average exit-velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout-percentage. In his last five starts, he has continued to struggle with a 4.82 ERA and a 4.67 FIP. During that stretch, he is only striking-out 14.4 percent of opposing batters and has frequently pitched from behind in the count, only throwing a first-pitch strike 54.2 percent of the time.

The Cardinals lineup continues to struggle as well. Over the last seven days, they rank only 15th in OPS and 16th in ISO. They have also turned in a worse than league average walk- and strikeout-rate during that stretch. Life will not get any easier for this group tonight against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Picks

If there is any hope for St. Louis in this game, it stems from the fact that Milwaukee had to use seven relief pitchers yesterday in the win, including Devin Williams and Josh Hader for the second consecutive day. The Cardinals only used three bullpen arms last night and should have everyone available today, if needed. Still, the Brewers are the far better team in this contest and the bullpen concerns might not be relevant if Woodruff can give this team seven strong innings of work. However, instead of playing the money line at such a heavy price, bettors should consider placing a wager on Milwaukee (-0.5) on the first-half run line at -148.

PICK: Milwaukee -0.5, First 5 innings (-148)

Brewers vs Cardinals O/U 8 Runs

At first pitch today, the temperature is forecasted to be the mid-80s with moderate humidity and a six miles-per-hour wind blowing in from right field. Over the last three years, Busch Stadium has been the fifth-most pitcher-friendly venue in Major League Baseball in night games. Expect a strong outing from Woodruff tonight. Lester should be able to do enough to keep this game under the first half total against a Milwaukee lineup that struggles against southpaws. Betting the under on the full nine innings presents unnecessary risk, due to the heavily taxed bullpens.

PICK: Under 4.5, First 5 innings (-148)

Image Credit: Imagn