Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright? (PIT -5.5)
Woof. Absolutely not. Ugly, ugly loss at home for Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett going down didn’t help, but they were already losing at that point. Will be difficult to trust this team moving forward, regardless of the opponent.
Splits the props once again. Another big volume game for Michael Pittman, no sweat on his receptions. Bijan Robinson made a late push but ultimately fell short on his rushing prop. Nice to see him get the workload again, but the efficiency wasn’t there.
Records after Week 13
- Charlie: 8-5
- Prop Picks: 15-11
Week 14 Pick: Denver +3 (-115 on BetMGM)
Reason: The Denver defense has figured it out.
I’ve changed my tune on Denver. Their season-long defensive stats are brutal, but they’re being dragged down by the first five games of the season. Ever since the Broncos gave up an egregious 31 points to Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 5, they’ve held opponents to just 17.3 points per game. That would rank 3rd on the season, behind only Baltimore and San Francisco.
And it’s not like they’re picking on easy competition. Here are Denver’s opponents over the past seven games: Chiefs (twice), Packers, Bills, Vikings, Browns, Texans. Outside of the Browns and maybe the Packers prior to Jordan Love’s breakout, that’s an imposing bunch. The Broncos are 5-2 over that span.
Head coach Sean Payton is also getting Denver going on offense. After scoring 21+ points just three times through seven games, the Broncos have now done it in 4-of-5 contests. That includes hanging 24 on Kansas City (3rd-fewest points allowed per game) and 29 on Cleveland (fewest yards allowed per game).
The Chargers ended their three-game skid with a win over New England. But I mean, does a 6-0 victory against the Patriots even count as a win? Getting three points here feels like a lot, especially with Brandon Staley at the helm. Not the side you want to be on in a close game.
PICK: Denver +3 (-115 on BetMGM)
NFL Player Props for Week 14
Cooper Kupp Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel)
Kupp just isn’t healthy right now. He looks like a shell of himself. He’s been held under 50 receiving yards for six straight games, topping 40 just once. Los Angeles heads to Baltimore to face one of the toughest pass defenses in the league. The Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest passing yards per game and the fewest yards per reception to wide receivers.
Chuba Hubbard Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on DraftKings)
Hubbard just popped off for 100+ yards against Tampa Bay, but that isn’t what this is about. In Carolina’s first game without former head coach Frank Reich, Hubbard earned 25 carries compared to just eight for Miles Sanders. Hubbard had been out-carried by Sanders in both Weeks 11 and 12. Hubbard played 65% of the snaps, his highest mark since Week 8. Sanders was at 32%, the widest gap between the backs since Week 9. New Orleans is 24th in rushing yards allowed per game. They’re only 4.5-point favorites, and that line keeps moving toward Carolina. Good spot for Hubbard if he maintains this role.
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