Broncos vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks for Today

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-12-19 17:46:47

Edwards of the Chargers

On Thursday night, the Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with a victory against the Chargers. The Chargers are home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and will find themselves one step closer to the playoffs if they can defeat their division foes. With two stalwart defenses meeting, points could be at a premium.

Check out our Same Game Parlay Guide prior to diving into the betting odds and building a same game parlay for Thursday night.

Broncos vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Preview

The Chargers are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 41.5 points. While that seems low, the Broncos and Chargers rank in the top 3 of scoring defenses after 15 weeks. ScoresAndOdds reports a high volume of betting action with the traveling Broncos side of the spread. Further, more than 80% of betting tickets and volume believe this game is going over the total. Despite this, the total trickled down to 41 points throughout the short week.

For injuries, we don’t have much to report for Thursday Night Football. Justin Herbert was removed from the injury report and will start for the Chargers in the pivotal divisional matchup. Will Dissly was ruled out, while Hayden Hurst was activated at tight end. Stone Smartt filled in for Dissly last weekend with 5 more catches. Hurst, at this point in his career, is less likely to cut into Smartt’s workload. LG Zion Johnson is questionable to play. His status should be cemented closer to kickoff.

For the Broncos, Patrick Surtain II was removed from the injury report. We will see if the Broncos decide to let Surtain shadow Ladd McConkey throughout the game or if McConkey is hidden in the slot for Herbert. Jaleel McLaughlin was ruled out for Denver. Javonte Williams and Audric Estime might see a couple of extra running back touches, but the Denver rushing offense continues to struggle with efficiency regardless of the running back.

So, where are we going tonight? The relevant statistics would suggest that scoring will be tough to come by. The Chargers and Broncos are tied for 1st in scoring defense. The Chargers would still rank atop this list if not for surrendering 40 points to the Buccaneers last weekend. Both teams rank in the top 10 in sack percentage and defensive yards per pass attempt. The Broncos are tied for 2nd in yards per rush attempt on defense. This could be the only stark difference between these teams, as the Chargers rank 24th.

So, run the football, right? The problem? Denver seemingly cannot run the football. The yards per rush attempt continue to get worse, and no matter who stands aside Bo Nix, the efficiency hasn’t improved. The Broncos should probably commit to the run early — which would be a problem for over bettors. However, when do we just see more of rookie sensation, Nix?

Nix of the Broncos

The Chargers are in a similar position — tied with Denver for 20th in yards per rush attempt. Without J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers don’t feature a dynamic playmaker in the backfield. Gus Edwards hasn’t done so well with the opportunity to lead the backfield, averaging only 3.875 yards per attempt over his last 3 games. The Denver defense completely stymies opposing running backs, ranking 6th in total rushing yards to the position.

So, does Herbert throw the football at a high volume? Maybe, but likely not. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is content to use most of the play clock and keep the game close while leaning on his defense. The Chargers are the 3rd-slowest team, with 30.8 seconds per play on offense. They have the 2nd-fewest giveaways in the league. Harbaugh wants to play clean football and win close games.

Will we get enough offense to support an over? From the looks of everything, this game going over feels very unlikely. Can we find props for a same game parlay this evening? Oh yes, we can. Let’s build an SGP to sweat along with tonight’s action.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Broncos vs. Chargers

Under 45.5 Points
Stone Smartt Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
Gus Edwards Under 33.5 Rushing Yards

Under 45.5 Points

I am not very confident in these offenses. Maybe a better way to state that would be to say that I am very confident in both defenses. The Chargers and Broncos continue to suppress scoring each week. Aside from a couple of blips, these defenses have consistently given offenses fits throughout the 2024 season.

I am pretty content to use the 41-point game total. However, with the parlay and a likely boost from DraftKings, I am going to buy a few points. We need to fade 6 touchdowns and 2 field goals. I am struggling to find that many touchdowns happening tonight.

Stone Smartt Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

What is the built-in benefit of picking the under? Any player prop going over is going to negatively correlate. DraftKings will try to incentivize us to include these legs in our parlay.

Enter Stone Smartt. Hayden Hurst shouldn’t impact his involvement that much. Smartt has 50+ receiving yards in consecutive weeks without Will Dissly and looks the part as the Chargers’ future tight end. Instead of wagering on his receptions prop, I will take the over on yardage, which feels like it can be exceeded with 1 open-field catch.

We will certainly see a bit of a boost when we include this prop with the game under.

Gus Edwards Under 33.5 Rushing Yards

Back to script though with our last leg. Edwards has not been able to get the job done for the Chargers. Can he fall in the end zone from the 1-yard line for a touchdown? Sure. Will that hurt us here? No.

Edwards’ efficiency has been a grave concern since Dobbins was hurt. Edwards is doing nothing with his opportunities. Before you mention the defenses he has faced, the Broncos are just as good against the rushing attack.

We are sweating a big run from Edwards. We have the added bonus of Kimani Vidal becoming more involved if the Chargers are looking for a spark out of the backfield.