Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Broncos vs. Saints Odds
| Broncos Odds | -3 |
| Saints Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 37 |
| Date | Thursday, October 17th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature a pair of rookie quarterbacks, with Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos traveling to face Spencer Rattler and the New Orleans Saints. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Broncos as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 37 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, rookie quarterbacks are 7-19 SU playing on the road on Thursday Night Football since 2006 – a tough spot for Bo Nix this evening. Fortunately for the Broncos, there is a rookie signal caller on the other side of this matchup as well, with Spencer Rattler getting the start for the Saints. He has the added difficulty tonight of being without three starting offensive linemen and his top two wideouts, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
Denver Broncos Preview
What to expect from Nix, Denver offense
Bo Nix has been good enough this year for the Broncos to be 3-3 through 6 games, but that doesn’t mean that he’s actually been good. Entering play in Week 7, Nix ranked 32nd out of 39 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 35th in success rate.
Nonetheless, Sean Payton has let Nix air it out a little bit, ranking 15th in aDOT so far in 2024. Only Aidan O’Connell, Caleb Williams, and Jacoby Brissett have a lower quarterback rating on throws 20+ yards downfield this season than Nix. Of course, O’Connell and Brissett have lost their starting job already at different points this season.
In short, this passing attack isn’t great, and it’s not even really good. Yet, there is something to be said about Nix taking good care of the football and avoiding costly turnovers. If Nix can take care of the football again tonight, his defense is likely to give the Broncos a chance to get above .500.
Surtain II ruled OUT for Thursday
The big news for Denver’s defense heading into this primetime affair is the absence of Pat Surtain II, who exited last week’s game against the Chargers due to injury. After Surtain II exited the contest, Justin Herbert went on to set a new season-high in completions and passing yards against a Broncos secondary unit that seemingly had no answers.
From Week 1 to Week 5, Denver’s secondary unit ranked 3rd in dropback EPA/play and 7th in success rate despite having tough games on their schedule in that stretch, including facing Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. In Week 6, Denver’s secondary unit ranked 17th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate, facing one of the league’s most ineffective passing attacks.
This unit has played well to begin 2024, but there are some concerns here ahead of kickoff this evening.
New Orleans Saints Preview
Rattler looking to put ugly debut in rear-view mirror
Spencer Rattler didn’t have the NFL debut that he was hoping for in Week 6, completing only 22-of-40 pass attempts, taking 5 sacks, and throwing a pair of interceptions. Only Dak Prescott finished with a worse EPA/play among starting 28 quarterbacks last weekend. Only Deshaun Watson, Prescott, and Will Levis had a worse success rate than Rattler – indicating that Rattler also struggled on a down-to-down basis, in addition to costing his team points with turnovers.
Looking to put last week behind him, Rattler has a tough task in front of him on Thursday. New Orleans will be missing three starting offensive linemen, plus their top two wide receivers, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
New Orleans defense is trending in the wrong direction
Coming into the season, everyone knew that the Saints defense was painfully thin on quality depth. That fact has reared its ugly head in recent weeks, with New Orleans allowing a league-high 56.8% success rate in Week 5 and the 2nd-highest success rate in Week 6 (54.7%).
Through 6 weeks, no defense in the NFL is allowing more yards per game than the Saints. Only the Rams, who have been snake-bitten by injuries, are allowing more yards per play than the Saints. LB Pete Werner, who has 21 tackles in 4 games this fall, has been ruled out for Thursday, leaving New Orleans thin in the middle of the field. Perhaps most notable, Werner is one of the league’s best linebackers in coverage, ranking 11th out of 71 players at his position in PFF grading so far in 2024.
The Saints defense could continue to struggle in this spot, even in a favorable matchup against a rookie quarterback.
Broncos vs. Saints Prediction
The Saints have home-field advantage in this matchup, but not much else favors them in this spot. Tonight will be the Saints’ second consecutive short week after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 5. They will be without three starting offensive linemen, their top two wideouts, Taysom Hill, and starting LB Pete Werner. Oh, and they will be starting a highly ineffective backup quarterback because Derek Carr still isn’t ready to return to the field.
Denver will be without their top cornerback, but Bo Nix has proven himself capable of playing a clean game of football, which is more than we have seen to date from Spencer Rattler. The Broncos should be able to win an ugly one on Thursday.
PICK: Broncos ML (-142, DraftKings)
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