NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Buccaneers-Bills DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Buccaneers at Bills on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
We have two teams that are desperate for a win, as both the Bucs and Bills are coming off one possession losses, and they’ve each lost two of their last three games. The Bills started the year on fire, scoring 37+ points in three straight games, but have sputtered in their last three games, scoring under 20 points/game. The Bucs have scored over 20 points just twice in their six games, and on the road in Orchard Park, they are rightfully big underdogs here. Dawson Knox had wrist surgery and will be out indefinitely, and Quintin Morris is also still out with his ankle injury, leaving Dalton Kincaid as the Bills’ clear TE1 poised for a big breakout. Chase Edmonds has a couple of full practices under his belt and will be activated off IR, and I’d expect him to get the RB2 job right away for the Bucs after Vaughn and Tucker have been non-factors in his absence.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Buccaneers at Bills Week 8
Currently, this game is sitting at a 42.5 total, with the Bills favored by 8.5 points. This is tied for the 5th lowest game total of the week and tied for the 2nd biggest spread of the week, so the Bills DST is looking like a great play. On the Bucs side, they will likely be playing from behind against a 10th-ranked Bills pass D, but the Bills have been below average against the run so far, and if this game stays close, White could be in for a big day. Josh Allen gets to face a 27th-ranked Bucs pass D so he and Diggs are the clear top stack from this game, while James Cook faces a 10th ranked Bucs rush D but should remain very involved in the passing game giving him solid value regardless of game script.
Quarterback
Josh Allen is the priciest player from this game, and for good reason, as the Bucs are allowing almost 250 pass yards/game, and Allen has been much better at home scoring an additional 7 FPPG compared to road games. He is the first guy you should get on your cash game lineup, and if you can fit him in the captain spot, I would try to do so.
Baker Mayfield is the fourth priciest player, and against a Bills defense allowing under 17 PPG, he is far from a must-play in cash games. In better matchups, Mayfield has struggled to crack 20 FP and has no games over 25 FP on the year, so in my opinion, he is more of a GPP play here.
Running Back
James Cook has cracked 17 touches just once on the year, and has been held at 16 touches or less in each of his last four games. He’s also only seen more than four targets just once, and that was in Week 1, so overall, he’s been a solid floor player with a limited ceiling. At $8,600, I think he’s going to have to score a TD to hit value, or have at least 15-20 touches with 4-6 catches with solid yardage to be cash game worthy. Latavius Murray is a pure GPP play.
Rachaad White is similar to Cook, as he has just one TD on the year (Cook has two), has seen over five targets just once on the year, and is a decent floor guy that has yet to have a ceiling game. At $8,000, I think he is still a great value play as he should be game-script proof unless the Bucs really get blown out, and if the Bucs can get a lead, he could have a lot of success against a Bills D allowing 128.3 rush yards/game. Chase Edmonds will come off IR, and I would definitely have exposure to him in GPPs as he’s minimum price ($200).
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin is way too cheap at $7,800 and is a cash game lock. He’s seen 30 targets over his last three games, should be favored to see around 10 targets due to the game script, and will almost certainly pay off his price even without a TD. Mike Evans is a clear top GPP play as the highest upside Bucs skill player, but at $10,000 I will likely not have him in cash games, as I’m prioritizing Allen and/or Diggs as spend ups. Trey Palmer ($4,200) has had his chances but remains an extremely volatile GPP-only play.
Stefon Diggs ($11,400) and Gabe Davis ($6,800) are similar to Evans/Godwin in big price differences, and if you go with Allen in the captain spot I think going with Davis in a flex spot makes a lot of sense for the best overall build. If you can squeeze in the Diggs/Allen combo by all means go for it, but if we’re fitting in Godwin and maybe one of the RBs, I think the salary savings of Davis and lower ownership makes him a really strong play even in cash games.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid ($5,000) is another cash game smash play, as he’s about $2k underpriced given his expected bump in usage with Knox and Morris out. Coming off an 8-75-0 line last week, I’d expect something like that to be his floor today, and if he finds the endzone he should easily be the best p/$ play of the game. I also don’t mind using him in the captain spot if it will help you fit in more expensive players you want.
Cade Otton ($3,000) has gone over 9 FP in three of six games, and if he finds the endzone he will crush his current salary. With just 1 TD on the year, I’m betting against that happening and fading him in cash games, but I’d definitely have exposure to him if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry).
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not considering the Bucs DST ($3,600) or Chase McLaughlin ($4,600) in my main build, but the Bills DST ($4,400) is definitely cheap enough for cash games, and Tyler Bass ($5,400) is a solid play if you have a flex spot remaining in his salary range.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I’m finding it hard to go with more than two Bucs players in most builds, as using Allen and/or Diggs really limits the salary remaining to fit in Mayfield and/or Evans. Godwin and White are my favorite bring backs on Bills stacks, and in cash games I’ll almost certainly go with a 5-1 or 4-2 Bills heavy team.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Dalton Kincaid – Complete mispricing at $5,000. A must play in cash games and will likely be on optimal GPP lineups, too.
2. Chris Godwin – Also way too cheap at $7,800, and easily the highest floor Bucs skill player just based on his target volume.
3. Josh Allen – Cash game must play, and It’s hard to envision the winning GPP lineups not having him in a flex play at minimum.
4. Gabe Davis / Bills DST – I would use at least one of them in your main build for salary savings, as both have 15+ FP upside.
5. Rachaad White / James Cook – Both should end with similar FP totals assuming neither score a TD or both score a TD, and for $600 cheaper I prefer White if you only use one in your main build.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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