Buccaneers vs. Saints NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | +2 |
| Saints Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 44 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 18 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints will play at the Superdome in an intra-division matchup between two of the best teams in the NFL. Since Tom Brady joined the Buccaneers in 2020, New Orleans has won all four regular season head-to-head games between these two franchises. Oddsmakers are expecting that narrative to shift this weekend, pricing Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point road favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Per The Athletic, Tampa Bay is a combined 1-7 against New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams since Tom Brady joined the Buccaneers at the beginning of the 2020 campaign. Against everyone else, Tampa Bay is 29-3. The reason that both New Orleans and Los Angeles have experienced success against Brady is primarily due to one thing – pressure.
Since the beginning of 2019, Brady has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when under pressure, per Pro Football Focus. In our preseason analysis of this Buccaneers offense, we mentioned that the offensive line could be of tremendous concern for this group in 2022, following the retirement of All-Pro Guard Ali Marpet, in addition to the season-ending knee injury for Ryan Jensen. In Week 1, these concerns became even more noteworthy after left tackle Donovan Smith left the contest shortly before halftime with an elbow injury. As of this writing, Smith is listed as doubtful for this Sunday, leaving Josh Wells as the projected starter. Wells has never graded as anything more than serviceable as a pass-blocker, with quite a few seasons worse than league average. Wells allowed a sack and Luke Goedeke allowed three pressures on Sunday Night Football. Adding insult to injury, Chris Godwin has already been ruled out for this matchup as well. Mike Evans and Julio Jones are both listed as questionable on the final injury report, but it would be surprising to see either on the sidelines this weekend.
In their season opener, the Buccaneers defense was dominant. Tampa Bay is loaded with talent, but what makes this side of the ball so intimidating for opposing offenses is the man pulling the strings – Todd Bowles. Bowles has always had a reputation as one of the most aggressive defensive minds in the league, but he seems willing to play more two-high coverages this year with a healthy defense, if the season opener was any indication of what is to come in subsequent games. Against the Dallas Cowboys, Bowles deployed a two-high look for 56.4 percent of snaps, per Pro Football Focus, trusting his elite defensive line and linebacker corps to stifle the running game without additional support from the secondary unit. The return of Carlton Davis and the emergence of Antonie Winfield Jr. as a bonafide star have created potentially the best defense in the league. Consequently, expect Tampa Bay to avoid allowing many big-plays this fall, which was their achilles heel in 2021.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is thin on the offensive line heading into this matchup, with three lineman, including first round draft pick Trevor Penning, on injured reserve. Calvin Throckmorton was limited during practice this week as well, with both nursing injuries. Still, this offense has plenty of talent at the skill positions, with a vision-corrected Jameis Winston under center, Jarvis Landry in the slot, and Michael Thomas and Chris Olave out-wide. If Alvin Kamara is able to suit-up on Sunday, he adds another potent weapon out of the backfield. Nonetheless, it would be wise to temper expectations from this group in Week 2, facing one of the most talented defenses in football.
In the last five meetings between these two teams, the Saints have sacked Tom Brady 14 times. Though New Orleans failed to record a sack last week against the Atlanta Falcons, it would be surprising to see them fail to get to Brady at least a few times at the Superdome this weekend. Brady has improved his speed and agility into his mid-40s thanks to the TB12 method, but he is still a far easier sack-target than the escape artist, Marcus Mariota, who New Orleans saw in Week 1. Paulson Adebo will not play for this secondary on Sunday, but this is still a unit with plenty of talent and depth, and one that is capable of slowing down an injury-plagued Tampa Bay offense in this spot.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Picks & Predictions
When these two teams met last December, they combined for a grand total of nine points. We certainly expect more than nine points on the board in the latest installment of this intense rivalry, but these two defenses are likely to steal the show once again. A healthy Tampa Bay defense will be able to deploy frequent two-high coverages in this matchup, avoiding big-plays, while simultaneously not being vulnerable against the run, thanks to their elite defensive line and linebacker corps. Tom Brady and company have no shortage of big names on the roster, but an injury-plagued offensive line could lead to more punts than usual for this group on Sunday. If the Saints manage to get consistent pressure on Brady in this spot, the Buccaneers could find life extremely difficult on the offensive side of the ball. The under is a worthwhile look for bettors.
PICK: Under 44 (-107, PointsBet)
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