Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Player Props: Bets for Lamb, Pollard & Brady
We’ve already given you a Cowboys vs. Buccaneers preview, which included analysis on both teams and a pick against the spread. Now it’s time for Cowboys & Bucs player props! Follow along as Andy Means serves a three-course meal of prop bets for Thursday Night Football. For more NFL wagering tips, check out our NFL Betting Guide.
Cowboys Player Prop Bets
Tony Pollard Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Caesars)
With the thought in mind that the Cowboys have to go more pass-heavy in this game—whether it be by choice (i.e. stellar Bucs run defense) or by default (i.e. trailing for most of the game)—I think Pollard has a pretty good chance of surpassing this line.
I’m guessing there are few that would argue that Pollard is the preferred pass-catcher over Zeke in the Cowboys backfield. When looking at last season, Pollard saw 40 targets despite playing just 33% of the snaps. Zeke saw 72 targets despite playing 72% of the snaps.
To make things even more appealing, this matchup should favor plenty of running back receptions too. Clearly, whatever they did last season worked, but it is worth noting that the Bucs allowed 101 receptions to opposing running backs last season (per Pro Football Reference). That just so happened to be the most in the entire league.
I like the idea that Pollard could get the over here on one meaningless screen in the first half on a 3rd and 20. I also like that he could be a garbage time hero if the Bucs have this one sewn up early. I just…like it. So I think we should bet it!
Prop Bet: Pollard Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
CeeDee Lamb Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Clearly, Lamb and the rest of the Cowboys offense have their work cut out for them against this vaunted Bucs defense that finished 5th in DVOA in 2020 and returns all 11 starters. That being said, everything else is setting up for Lamb to hit the over on this prop.
For one, it is likely the Cowboys are playing from behind for most of this game, which should just increase the number of passing attempts. And it’s not like the Cowboys should have much success running anyways. As good as the Bucs were last season against the pass (5th in Pass DVOA), they were #1 in the league in Rush DVOA.
And secondly, Lamb should have the best individual matchup against the Bucs secondary, as it is likely that Sean Murphy-Bunting lines up against him in the slot. Per PlayerProfiler, SMB (yes, I just gave him that nickname so I didn’t have to type it again) allowed quarterbacks to have a 122.7 passer rating last season when he was targeted. And while that isn’t OMG-how-are-you-in-the-league type of bad, it definitely leaves him as the guy to pick on in this secondary.
For what it’s worth, our projections at RotoGrinders have Lamb at 77.97 receiving yards in this Week 1 matchup. I don’t know about you, but that is about all I need to know right there.
Prop Bet: Lamb Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
Buccaneers Player Prop Bets
Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+165 at Caesars)
Quite simply, the matchup here is just too good for me to pass up on these great odds for Brady to throw at least 3 TDs.
Consider for a second that last year’s Cowboys defense allowed:
1) the fifth most points per game (29.6); and
2) the fifth most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (33).
With very little roster turnover in the secondary this past offseason, the Cowboys instead decided to fire defensive coordinator Mike Nolan and bring in ex-Falcons head coach Dan Quinn as the new defensive coordinator. The same Dan Quinn whose Falcons defense last year:
1) allowed the most passing yards per game in the entire league (293.6); and
2) gave up the third most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (34).
Ummm, doesn’t this have like 400 yards and 4 touchdowns for Brady written all over it? Brady threw for at least 3 TDs in seven regular season games last year and another two times in the playoffs (NFC Championship and then the Super Bowl).
The main drawback I see here is that the Cowboys can also be had on the ground. So if the Bucs happen to get down close to the end zone, it wouldn’t surprise me at all for them to just try to jam it in via the rush.
But that is where these great odds come in. I mean c’mon, +165 for a measly 3 TDs from the GOAT on the opening night of the 2021 season coming off of his seventh Super Bowl win? And against this woeful Cowboys pass defense? This feels like stealing!!
Prop Bet: Brady Over 2.5 TDs
Image Credit: Imagn