Bucks vs. Suns Odds, Game 5 Preview, Picks, & Prediction
Bucks vs. Suns Odds
| Bucks Odds | +4 |
| Suns Odds | -4 |
| Moneyline | +125/-155 |
| Over/Under | 217.5 |
| Series Odds | Suns -150/Bucks +125 |
| Date | Saturday, July 16 |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
| Odds accurate as of Friday at BetMGM | |
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Game 4 was easily the most thrilling NBA Finals game yet, and the Bucks pulled out a 109-103 win to even things up 2-2 as the series heads back to Phoenix. I think Milwaukee currently looks like the better team, but the home-court advantage for Phoenix is probably what is ultimately leading to them still being slight favorites to win the championship (updated NBA Finals odds: Suns -150, Bucks +125).
The total points scored in Game 4 (212) was the lowest amount in the series, and oddsmakers have reacted by pulling the total for Game 5 down to 217.5. For comparison, Game 4 closed right around 220.5 (finishing with 220 total points!), while Game 3 closed at 221 (finishing with 226 total points).
In regards to the Game 5 spread, sportsbooks opened the Suns -4. If you recall, the Bucks were similarly sized favorites for Games 3 & 4, both in Milwaukee. I think we have ourselves a pretty evenly matched series as we head into the final stretch, folks!
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Bucks vs. Suns NBA Finals Overview
I see some very clear reasons why the Bucks were able to eke out a Game 4 win. Because if you just look at the shooting numbers—the Bucks shot 40.2% from the floor, while the Suns shot 51.3%—you might be left scratching your head.
So how did the Bucks end up scoring six more points than the Suns? Well, the most obvious thing that jumps out is that the Bucks took 19 more shots than the Suns; Milwaukee was 39-for-97, while Phoenix was 40-for-78. If you get that many more cracks at the basket, you can withstand a poor shooting night (a REALLY poor shooting night). How did that happen?
The Bucks used their size advantage to pull down 17 offensive rebounds (the Suns had just five).
The normally sure-handed Suns coughed up 17 turnovers. Chris Paul, in a very uncharacteristic performance that left a lot of the public questioning if he is playing with an injured wrist, had five of them. As for the Bucks? They had five total as a team!
A lot of those turnovers that Phoenix committed were of the live-ball variety, which was a huge reason why Milwaukee got 15 fastbreak points and totaled 24 points off of turnovers. Guess how many fastbreak points Phoenix had? Zero!
This is all part of a bigger issue in the series overall, one that favors Milwaukee and leaves Phoenix at a disadvantage. And that is the Bucks are just getting much, much higher quality shots. Per NBA Advanced Stats, here is the shot breakdown for each team in this series:
Restricted Area
Bucks: 79-for-121 (65.3%)
Suns: 43-for-67 (64.2%)
In The Paint (Non-Restricted Area)
Bucks: 20-for-59 (33.9%)
Suns: 33-for-65 (50.8%)
Mid-Range
Bucks: 19-for-56 (33.9%)
Suns: 41-for-77 (53.2%)
Corner Three’s
Bucks: 14-for-33 (42.4%)
Suns: 14-for-28 (50%)
Above The Break Three’s
Bucks: 32-for-99 (32.3%)
Suns: 33-for-97 (34%)
As you can see, the Bucks have just been absolutely living at the rim (121 field goal attempts), whereas the Suns have struggled mightily getting shots inside (67 field goal attempts).
And the thing is, that is consistent with how these teams have played all season. The Bucks have Giannis, so you know they are trying to get to the rim as much as possible. The Suns have two of the best mid-range shooters in the league with Chris Paul and Devin Booker, which is perfectly fine for a Bucks defense that is predicated on keeping teams away from the rim as much as possible (they have been elite at that for the past year or two at least).
Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Preview and Picks
So how does all of this tie into predictions for Game 5? At this point in the series, the head coaches don’t really have that many big cards to play. As we saw in Game 4, both teams played exactly eight guys. The rotations are as tight as ever.
If I’m being honest, I think Milwaukee has proven to be the better team in this series through four games. When looking back at the two Phoenix wins, I think Milwaukee has been able to shore up what caused them issues in those games.
In Game 1, they uncharacteristically let Phoenix shoot a ton of free throws. The Suns shot 26 of them, making 25. That sure seemed like an aberration considering the Bucks keep teams off the line better than any other team in the league. And since the Bucks had their own trouble making free throws that game (9-for-16), that was just about your ballgame right there.
In Game 2, the Suns shot a silly hot 20-for-40 from three, while the Bucks shot just 9 for 31. Game blouses.
Things have obviously trended in favor of the Bucks since then. The Suns shot just 14 free throws in Game 2, 16 free throws in Game 3, and 19 free throws in Game 4. And they sure as heck haven’t shot anywhere close to 50% from three-point land in the past two games (far from it, in fact).
That being said, I’m not exactly ready and willing to say the Bucks will just waltz through Game 5 on the road in Phoenix. Homecourt obviously is a huge edge for both of these teams.
This is going to sound like a cop-out, but I really think a lot of Game 5 is going to come down to shooting variance. Is Phoenix going to come out hot shooting the ball from deep like they did in Game 2? Is Jrue Holiday going to continue to shoot abysmally (notwithstanding Game 3, of course) from the field? When I see things like that as potential deciding factors, I’d prefer to stay away from a spread that is this tight.
So instead, I actually like pivoting to the over 217.5 here, as I think that line might be a slight overreaction to Game 4 totaling just 212 points. Remember, the other three games in this series have gone over this number. Furthermore, the two games in Phoenix were the two highest scoring games of the series thus far. And do we really think the Bucks are going to shoot 40% again like they did in Game 4?
The last thing I want to note is that I think there is a smidge of value on a bet to win the series: Bucks +125. (Speaking of, I sure hope you read the Game 3 Preview when I said to grab them at +400!)
As I have already noted, I do think they are looking like the better team right now. If the roles were reversed—and the Bucks somehow had home court advantage for the rest of the series—I suspect oddsmakers would have them listed as heavier favorites than what the Suns are now (-150). It is without a doubt going to be difficult to steal a win in Phoenix, but I certainly like their chances to take home the NBA title when all is said and done. I like it even more when we can get it at plus-odds.
Game 5 Pick: Over 217.5
Series Pick: Bucks +125
Image Credit: Imagn