Suns vs. Bucks Odds, Game 3 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

by Andy Means (meansy53) Last Updated 2021-07-11 05:15:36

Bucks vs. Suns Game 3 Odds

Bucks vs. Suns Game 3 odds — spreads, moneylines, and totals — are out! NBA analyst Andy Means is here to break things down for bettors. Make sure to get your basketball picks in for the 2021 NBA Finals before Game 3 tips off in Milwaukee on Sunday night.

With the series now shifting back to Milwaukee, oddsmakers have made the Bucks -4 favorites despite them being down 0-2 to the Suns. Despite losing both games by double digits, that spread shows that both of those games have been closer than the final scores indicate.

After Game 1 finished with 223 points and Game 2 finished with 226 points, the Game 3 total has opened at 221.5 or 222 depending on where you are shopping. Game 1 played at a much faster pace (101.50) but with less efficient offense (Phoenix 115.7 Offensive Rating; Bucks 104.0 Offensive Rating). Game 2 played at a much slower pace (94.50) but with far more efficient offense (Phoenix 124.2 Offensive Rating; Bucks 114.9 Offensive Rating).

Suns vs. Bucks NBA Finals Overview

As noted above, both of these teams played much better on the offensive end of the court in Game 2. The Bucks got a huge game from Giannis Antetokounmpo (42 points, 12 rebounds), grabbed 18 offensive rebounds, and only turned the ball over nine times. However, they went just 9 for 31 from three and got subpar offensive performances from both Jrue Holiday (17 points on 7 for 21 shooting) and Khris Middleton (11 points on 5 for 16 shooting).

Conversely, the Suns were red-hot from deep, going 20 for 40. The Bucks went back to their drop coverage with Brook Lopez on the pick-and-roll (while still switching 1 through 4), and it appeared they made a conscious effort to help out more on drives compared to what they did in Game 2. The end result though was a bunch of open three-pointers, a lot of which were of the clean, spot-up variety.

You could probably have just looked at the three-point stats for each team in this game and know who won without looking at anything else. It is extremely hard to win a basketball game at any level when you get outscored by 33 points from behind the arc.

Ultimately though, I do think this series is a lot closer than the final scores have indicated. And it appears the oddsmakers feel the same way based on the early lines that have been released.

Suns Injury Report

After the Suns lost Dario Saric to a knee injury (torn ACL) early in Game 1, they also could be without Torrey Craig after he hurt his knee in the second half of Game 2 after he took a charge on Giannis.

If Craig is forced to miss any time in this series, that would mean the Suns are now down two reserves. We saw Monty keep an extremely tight rotation for Game 2, with his five starters (Paul, Booker, Ayton, Bridges, Crowder) all playing between 37-44 minutes, Cameron Johnson playing 18 minutes, and Craig (7.5 minutes) and Cameron Payne (10 minutes) getting spot minutes to essentially fill in the rest.

Suns at Bucks Game 3 Preview

I don’t think we are going to see any glaring adjustments on either side of the coin. Phoenix especially has to feel great about where they are (obviously), holding court at home and taking a 2-0 series lead with two double-digit wins.

As for the Bucks, they looked a lot better offensively in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, largely thanks to Giannis. They are at their best when they are scoring around the rim, which is obviously what Giannis does best too. Here are some key numbers for them from each game in this series (per NBA Advanced Stats):

GAME 1

13-for-21 in the restricted area (61.9%)
8-for-20 in the paint (non restricted area) (40%)

GAME 2

21-for-f5 in the restricted area (60%)
6-for-13 in the paint (non restricted area) (46.2%)

The Bucks had 7 more shots in the paint overall in Game 2, including a whopping 14 more at the rim. For comparison, the Suns were just 6 for 16 at the rim in Game 2. But again, that disparity from three-point land that we talked about earlier was just too much to overcome.

Defensively, I am guessing that the Bucks largely keep with the same scheme and just try to make minor adjustments to not overhelp quite as much (which led to a lot of those open spot-up three’s). They did much better at keeping the Suns off the free throw line in Game 2 (just 14 attempts compared to 26 in Game 1), which helped a little too.

I think the Bucks are going to have to be okay conceding some midrange attempts from guys like Devin Booker and Chris Paul, and those guys are more than capable of hurting you from there too of course. But it is better than giving up a lot of open three’s. If the Bucks are able to do that though, they will have to keep the Suns off of the foul line again so as not to have a repeat performance of Game 1.

Regardless, if Phoenix is going to shoot 20 of 40 from three again—and the Bucks just 9 of 31—then a lot of this discussion is irrelevant. The Bucks will just have very little chance if the percentages remain like that.

Suns vs. Bucks Game 3 Predictions & Picks

We are all usually prisoners to the moment, so it’s easy to forget that the Bucks were in this exact same situation in the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Brooklyn. They lost Game 1 (107-115) and then got spanked in Game 2 (86-125). Of course, they came back home and won the next two games before ultimately closing out the Nets in seven games.

So even though they let me down against the spread in Game 2, I am going right back to the Bucks at -4 for Game 3. I think they shore up some things on the defensive end, and I expect guys like Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton to play (and shoot) much better at home. And let’s not forget that the Suns could very well be down another rotation piece with Torrey Craig hurting his knee. The Suns guys playing all of those minutes is going to be a lot more difficult without their raucous home crowd behind them.

The last thing I want to note is that now is the time for you to get value on the Bucks to win the series. Remember, nothing has happened yet in this series that was really unexpected. The Suns were favorites at home in both games and did their part to hold serve. But now, the series heads back to Milwaukee, and it is the Bucks favored to win Game 3.

As I am writing this, I am seeing the Bucks at +400 (William Hill) to win the series. I ask you, what do you think that number will be if the Bucks hold serve at home and this series goes back to Phoenix tied 2-2? That +400 would suddenly be looking mighty tasty.

If you think the Bucks still have a realistic shot to win this series (like I do) or just want to get your money down on what looks like some good value, now is the time. Sure, the odds will look even better if the Bucks lose Game 3, but them having to come back down 3-0 will pretty much be insurmountable. Or if they are able to tie it up 2-2 and then lose Game 5 in Phoenix, you probably still aren’t getting anything close to as good as +400.

So if you want to put your bucks on the Bucks, now is the time!

NBA Finals Game 3 Pick

• Milwaukee Bucks -4

Image Credit: Imagn