Bucks vs. Hawks: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Bucks vs. Hawks Odds
| Bucks Odds | -5 |
| Hawks Odds | +5 |
| Over/Under | 229 |
| Date | Wed, Jan. 11 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Wednesday, ESPN’s NBA double-header will begin with a matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks at 7:30 p.m. EST at State Farm Arena. In this matchup, both teams will be missing key players. Milwaukee will be without Khris Middleton, and Atlanta will be without both Trae Young and Clint Capela. Ahead of tip-off, oddsmakers have Milwaukee priced as 5-point road favorites on the spread.
Milwaukee Bucks
Underperforming expectations
Across the last month of action, the Bucks are 7-8 overall and rank 25th in the NBA in Net Rating, having been outscored by 4.6 points per 100 possessions. On the road this year, Milwaukee is 10-9, but they rank 21st out of 30 teams in Net Rating, having been outscored by 4.3 points per 100 possessions. In the absence of Khris Middleton, bettors have not seen the dominance from this group that has been present in recent seasons.
Life without Khris Middleton
Last year, Milwaukee ranked in the 85th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 65th percentile in defensive efficiency with Middleton on the floor, compared to the 59th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 43rd percentile in defensive efficiency when he was on the sidelines. This year, the Bucks rank in only the 31st percentile with Middleton off of the court. Missing one of their core pieces, this team has underperformed preseason expectations by a wide margin.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Capela ruled out
Both Trae Young and Clint Capela will be in street clothes tonight for Atlanta. Per Cleaning the Glass, when both players have been on the sidelines at the same time this year, the Hawks rank in the 4th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 86th percentile in defensive efficiency. According to StatMuse, the pace of play also slows down for Atlanta in these situations, with their average possessions per game falling below 100.
Who will step up for Atlanta?
Per CourtIQ, De’Andre Hunter (+5.4%) and Dejounte Murray (+3.2%) are two notable players who see their usage increase significantly when Young and Capela are off of the floor. Per 36 minutes in such situations, Hunter is averaging 16.7 points and 5.1 rebounds, and Murray is averaging 19.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 7.7 assists.
Nevertheless, bettors should be careful not to over-invest in Atlanta’s offense in this spot, facing a Milwaukee team that owns the best defensive efficiency of any team in the NBA on the road this season. On the road, the Bucks have been particularly strong defending the perimeter, holding their opponents to a league-best 32.8% from beyond-the-arc.
Bucks vs. Hawks – Picks & Predictions
The Milwaukee Bucks have struggled mightily relative to their preseason expectations, but they still have Giannis Antetokounmpo and one of the best defenses in basketball. Traveling to face an injury-depleted Atlanta Hawks roster, Milwaukee’s defense has an opportunity to lead to a win tonight on national television. Following a thrilling come-from-behind victory over the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Monday, look for the Bucks to win their second consecutive game tonight.
PICK: Bucks -5 (-110, DraftKings)
Editor’s Note: Formatting Error Fixed
Image Credit: Imagn