Bucks vs. Heat: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Bucks vs. Heat Odds
| Bucks Odds | +6.5 |
| Heat Odds | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 213 |
| Date | Thu, Jan. 12 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | BSFL |
On Thursday, the Milwaukee Bucks will travel to South Beach to battle the Miami Heat at FTX Arena. Ahead of tip off, the Bucks have ruled out Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Grayson Allen, leaving them short-handed for this contest. Miami will be without Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Caleb Martin. In a matchup between two injury-depleted teams, oddsmakers are expecting the Heat to come away with a victory, pricing Miami as 6.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Milwaukee Bucks
Antetokounmpo, Middleton OUT
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks rank in the 25th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 69th percentile in defensive efficiency this season when both Antetokounmpo and Middleton are off of the floor at the same time. Notably, Milwaukee has played at a much slower pace when Antetokounmpo is off of the floor, averaging only 97.5 possessions per game, compared to their season average of over 100 possessions.
Who will step up for Milwaukee?
Per CourtIQ, Jrue Holiday receives the largest increase in usage (+9.8%) when his two co-stars are on the sidelines. In these situations, he is averaging 28.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 11.1 assists per 36 minutes.
According to StatMuse, Holiday has scored 21 points or more in eight of his last 11 games without Antetokounmpo, dating back to December 15, 2021. Expect him to be the primary playmaker for this offense on Thursday.
Miami Heat
Herro, Lowry, Martin OUT
Tonight, Miami will be missing three starters from the lineup for their second consecutive game. On Tuesday, the Heat were able to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder 112-111 thanks to the heroics of Jimmy Butler, who was the only normal starter on the floor that evening.
Per Cleaning the Glass, this group ranks in the 51st percentile in offensive efficiency and the 13th percentile in defensive efficiency this season when Herro, Lowry, and Martin are each on the sidelines. Expect Miami to slow down the pace in this contest, looking to exploit Milwaukee’s missing defensive pieces in the half-court.
Who will step up for Miami?
When Herro, Lowry, and Martin are each on the sidelines, Victor Oladipo and Jimmy Butler both receive a 3.7% usage increase or more. In these situations, Butler is averaging 29.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per 36 minutes of action, followed by Bam Adebayo in the scoring department, who is averaging 21.6 points per 36 minutes.
Bucks vs. Heat – Picks & Predictions
The Milwaukee Bucks will be without two of their most important offensive pieces on Thursday, with both Antetokounmpo and Middleton in street clothes. However, they are not completely devoid of talent, with Holiday, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis still on the floor. The Miami Heat are missing two strong offensive contributors of their own this evening, making it unlikely that bettors see a blowout game script in this spot.
Betting on a game between two teams missing so many key pieces has far more volatility than normal, but the Bucks are worth a small stab to cover the spread, if taking action here.
PICK: Bucks +6.5 (-115, MGM)
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