2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-05-10 16:04:30

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

For the last stop ahead of the year’s second major, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Craig Ranch for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. The first two iterations of this event at Craig Ranch resulted in ridiculously low scoring and two K.H. Lee victories. Will Lee three-peat? Will Scottie Scheffler lap the field at home in Texas? Will someone win their first PGA Tour event? Let’s build our card out for this week’s event ahead of the upcoming PGA Championship excitement.

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 10th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Date: May 11 – 14
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,468
• Greens: Bentgrass

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• SG: Ball Striking
• P4: 450-500
• SG: Par 5
• Proximity 200+
• SG: Putting

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Stephan Jaegar +5000 (BetMGM)

This week, we will start with one of our golfers to watch from our betting preview as we endeavor to build a very, very cheap card. With the PGA Championship next weekend, I want to keep my exposure limited this week in hopes of getting back some bankroll prior to the large event. Will I be surprised if Scottie Scheffler laps the field or K.H. Lee three-peats? No. That said, with the field being particularly weak for this event, I won’t be shocked to see a first-time winner.

Stephan Jaegar checks plenty of the boxes for this event. He is second in GIR and top-twenty in both P4: 450-500 and Proximity 200+ yards. He has been in very strong form as of late in better fields. This feels like the top spot for him to finally break through.

Extremely cost-effective, we open our card with a 1/2 unit on Jaegar and place him in prime consideration for an OAD selection. I can’t imagine he will gain too much traction with people falling all over themselves to click K.H. Lee in this week.

Davis Riley +5500 (PointsBet)

Speaking of cost-effectiveness, our second golfer this week is Davis Riley. Costing us a pittance, Riley should still be beaming with confidence after his first tour win at the Zurich Classic. That said, Riley must surely want a victory all to himself, and TPC Craig Ranch profiles as a nice spot.

We mentioned in our preview that putting is not all that important during the brief history at this course for the Byron Nelson. The top five putters last year didn’t make any noise. Instead, it seems like dialing up the approach game and eating the Par 4’s alive will bode well. Riley ranks 7th in SG: Approach and sits inside the Top 20 in most of our other categories. While he has not been very proficient with putting, we are willing to look past that on a course that doesn’t seem to demand perfection.

We will wager another half-unit on Riley and just like that our two highest-priced golfers only cost us one unit. With our drought this season, we need to take advantage of the cheaper options.

Sam Stevens +6600 (BetMGM)

Now we arrive at my favorite two picks for this event. Sam Stevens leads off that group as a birdie-making machine at an event where players will need to go low.

Stevens resides in the top 20 in both GIRs and SG: Par 5. Not shockingly, he ranks 6th in BOB% over his last 36 rounds. Whoever wins this event is going very low and Stevens seems primed to shoot low scores throughout the weekend.

Stevens made 3 of 4 of his last cuts with 2nd at the Valero and a 3rd in Corales. He is knocking on the door and a weaker field seems to be a great place for him to break through. We only wager a minuscule 0.4 units on the young lad to win his first tournament.

Dylan Wu +1000 (Caesars)

My favorite bet of the tournament is Dylan Wu. In the model I created rooted with the statistics mentioned above, Wu ranks fifth overall despite sliding way down the odds board. He has not missed a cut since the Farmers and continues to improve with each tournament. He finished 21st at the elevated Wells Fargo and 15th in Mexico. He is also knocking at the door but we get a far greater price.

Wu is an outright bet for me at 0.25 units and likely a ladder play with a Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20, taking advantage of the lofty odds. For one-and-done, he might be too deep but if you are as far behind as I am, he might be worth a flier given the smaller prize pool and the lesser opportunity cost in this event.

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Card

Byron Nelson Total Units in Play – 1.65

2023 Net Units: -33.10

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

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Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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