Canada vs. United States: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Canada vs. United States Odds
| Canada ML | +360 |
| United States ML | -500 |
| Over/Under | 11.5 |
| Date | Mon, Mar. 13 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Monday, Canada and the United States will meet at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona for a pool play matchup in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. First pitch will be at 10:00 p.m. EST on FS1.
Canada enters play fresh off of an 18-8 victory against Great Britain in their pool play opener. The United States are 1-1 after two games, having been a colossal disappointment to this point in the tournament.
Ahead of tonight’s affair, oddsmakers have priced the United States as -500 favorites on the moneyline in this matchup, with over/under on the total set at 11.5 runs.
Canada
Britt gets the ball for Canada
Southpaw Mitch Bratt was a fifth round draft pick by the Texas Rangers in 2021. Last year, he tossed 80.2 innings at Single A in the minor leagues, delivering a 2.45 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 29.5% strikeout percentage, and an 8.3% walk rate.
Impressively, Bratt did not experience any major platoon issues in his first full season since being drafted. Against right-handed hitters, he had a 1.15 WHIP, 36.5% strikeout percentage, and a .200 opponent batting average. Facing left-handed hitters, he had a 1.24 WHIP, 24.1% strikeout percentage, and a .241 opponent batting average.
On Monday, he will see a United States lineup that is stacked with an abundance of right-handed hitters. Britt could fare better than expected in this spot.
What to expect from Canada’s offense
Unlike the United States, Canada’s offense slaughtered Great Britain’s anemic pitching staff, scoring 18 runs in seven innings before the game was called due to a mercy rule. Freddie Freeman and Tyler O’Neill combined for six hits, seven runs scored, five runs-batted-in, and three walks batted in the 2-hole and 3-hole in the lineup, respectively.
Overall, Canada’s offense generated 24 at-bats with runners-in-scoring-position in only six frames. Though many of the names might not be familiar to most Americans, this is an impressive collection of offensive talent.
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United States
Lynn gets the start for USA
After beginning the 2022 campaign on the injured list, Lance Lynn struggled in his return to the mound, with a dismal 5.88 ERA and a 4.62 FIP across his first 11 starts. Yet, he was much better down the stretch, posting a 2.18 ERA and a 3.05 FIP across his final 10 turns through the rotation – likely as a result of better health and increased velocity.
Lynn’s primary weakness is against left-handed batters, who have consistently seen him much better than right-handed batters throughout the course of his career. Since entering the MLB, Lynn owns a 2.88 FIP, 27.8% strikeout percentage, and a 1.08 WHIP against righties, compared to a 4.48 FIP, 19.5% strikeout percentage, and a 1.48 WHIP against lefties.
What to expect from the United States lineup
The United States appearance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic is quickly shaping up to be a national embarrassment. Heralded all winter as one of the best teams heading into this tournament, the United States were largely unimpressive against Great Britain in a 6-2 win. On Sunday, the United States found themselves trailing to Mexico 11-2 in the eighth inning before getting a few runs against lower-leverage arms in the Mexico bullpen.
Following two games, Mike Trout is batting .167, and the defense has been abysmal. Though the team was officially credited for zero errors in yesterday’s loss, there were a number of costly defensive miscues, which led to the large deficit.
Eventually, bettors would assume that a lineup with this much talent will find a way to produce. However, there has been little evidence thus far to suggest that a breakout is imminent on Monday.
Canada vs. United States – Picks & Predictions
Following an embarrassing showing on Sunday against Mexico, the United States needs to treat Monday’s matchup against Canada with a level of intensity usually reserved for October postseason baseball.
To establish the tone, Lance Lynn will need to deliver a scoreless first inning on the mound. In 2021, a season in which he was fully healthy, Lynn had a 2.25 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 28.0 first innings, proving that he is up to the task in this situation.
Bratt was slightly less effective in the first inning last year in Single A, with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 18 starts. However, he was strong against right-handed batters in 2022, and will likely see three of them atop the United States batting order this evening.
The first inning might not be spotless tonight, but these are appealing odds at Bet365 for less than two total runs in the opening frame. Take the under
PICK: Under 1.5 runs – 1st inning (-135, Bet365)
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