Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat, Prediction, & Pick
Cavaliers vs. Heat Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | -1.5 |
| Heat Odds | +1.5 |
| Over/Under | 222.5 |
| Date | Fri, Dec. 8 |
| Time | 8:00 p.m. |
| TV | BSOH |
Tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat will meet at the Kaseya Center for an 8:00 p.m. ET tip-off. Entering play, Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers have won seven of their last 10 games to pull within 3.5 games of the top spot in the Eastern Conference standings. Jimmy Butler and the Heat have an identical 12-9 record through their first 21 games, despite having to play with their leading scorer, Tyler Herro, for multiple weeks.
Ahead of tip-off this evening, the Cavaliers are favored by 1.5 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 222.5 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers looking for revenge
In the first meeting between these two teams this season, the Cavaliers were run off of their home floor by the Heat, losing 129-96 in a game that Miami did not have Bam Adebayo or Tyler Herro, their top-two scorers, available. In the loss, Cleveland allowed Miami to shoot 52.3% from the field and 57.1% from beyond the arc, in addition to getting out-rebounded 41-34 and losing the turnover battle by a wide margin.
Evan Mobley listed as QUESTIONABLE
According to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com, Evan Mobley is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s action, but his status is likely closer to doubtful after he was not present at shootaround this morning. This season, Max Strus and Darius Garland have seen the largest increase in usage when Mobley is not on the floor. Strus is averaging 19.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per 36 minutes of action with Mobley on the sidelines. Garland is averaging 23.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 7.6 assists.
It is worth noting that Strus has been far better than Garland on the road this season, making him the better of the two plays if looking for a player prop to invest in on Friday night.
Miami Heat
Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro ruled OUT
On Friday, the Heat will be without each of their two leading scorers, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Though it is often easy to panic in these situations and assume that Miami will be out-matched without their stars, recent evidence shows us that the Heat are more than capable of keeping tonight’s game competitive. Miami did not have Adebayo or Herro available the first time they played Cleveland this year, but still managed a 33-point victory on the road.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Heat rank in the 95th percentile in offensive efficiency, 88th percentile in eFG%, and the 29th percentile in defensive efficiency when Adebayo and Herro are off of the floor this season.
Who will step up for Miami?
According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Jimmy Butler and Jaime Jacquez are the two players who stand to benefit the most from Adebayo and Herro being out on Friday. Per 36 minutes this season, Butler is averaging 27.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists with Miami’s two other stars off of the floor. Jacquez is averaging 21.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in such situations.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat Prediction
Over 222.2 (-110), Fanatics
The Cavaliers and Heat are both likely to be without their best defender on Friday, which intuitively makes the over a strong look in this spot. The data supports the intuition in this spot as well. Cleveland ranks in the 78th percentile in eFG% offensively without Evan Mobley, but they rank in only the 18th percentile in defensive efficiency without him on the floor. Miami also has strong offensive numbers and poor defensive metrics when Adebayo and Herro are not on the floor. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 225 points and we could see the rematch be even higher scoring to begin the weekend.
Image Credit: Getty Images