Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, Prediction, & Pick
Celtics vs. Thunder Odds
| Celtics Odds | -4 |
| Thunder Odds | +4 |
| Over/Under | 240 |
| Date | Tue, Jan. 2 |
| Time | 8:00 p.m. |
| TV | NBC Sports Boston |
On Tuesday night, the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet at the Paycom Center for a highly-anticipated cross-conference matchup. Entering play, Jayson Tatum and the Celtics own the best record in the NBA at 26-6, having won 9 of their last 10 games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are 22-9, with 8 wins in their last 10 contests.
Ahead of tip off this evening, the Celtics are favored by 4 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 240 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Boston Celtics
Celtics less formidable on the road
Though Boston owns the best record in the NBA as of this writing, their impressive record is primarily driven by their dominance at home – winning all 16 contests at TD Garden this year. On the road, the Celtics have been less formidable, going 10-6 overall while ranking only 3rd-best in Net Rating (+6.7).
On the road, Boston has been far less efficient offensively, and their defensive rating is slightly worse as well, resulting in a 6.5-point difference in Net Rating per 100 possessions.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Boston is 2-3 SU on the road this year when playing an opponent that ranks in the top-10 in point differential. Oklahoma City owns the 3rd-best per-game point differential of any team in the NBA through the end of action on Monday.
Boston vulnerable on the perimeter
In 16 road games this year, Boston’s perimeter defense has been underwhelming, ranking 27th in opponent 3-point attempts allowed per game and 18th in opponent 3-point percentage. The Celtics have been particularly vulnerable above the break, allowing the most such attempts per game and ranking 20th in opponent success rate on those attempts. This will be an area to watch on Tuesday night.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Have the Thunder arrived?
Through 31 games this season, only the Celtics, Timberwolves, and Bucks have a better win percentage than the Thunder, raising the question: Just how good is Oklahoma City?
Nearly all of the advanced metrics support the fact that the Thunder are legit, especially at home where they are 13-5 this year. Overall this season, Oklahoma City ranks 3rd in Net Rating, 6th in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating, and in the top-4 in eFG%, TS%, and turnover rate.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Oklahoma City has the 4th-best point-differential in the league this season when playing top-10 opponents as well, offering further validation that this is a team capable of hanging with anyone.
Where Oklahoma City can be beat
Despite their early-season success, the Thunder still have vulnerabilities that their opponents can exploit. Entering play, Oklahoma City ranks 29th in rebound percentage, 29th in opponent 3-point attempts allowed per game, and 26th in opponent free throw attempts allowed per game. In essence, they don’t handle their responsibilities on the glass particularly well, they don’t defend the perimeter exceptionally well, and they foul at an alarming rate for a team that seemingly has championship aspirations.
Facing a Boston offense that leads the NBA in field goal attempts on above the break 3-pointers, Oklahoma City will be tested on the perimeter. The one saving grace for the Thunder in this matchup is that Boston ranks only 21st in free throw attempts per game, meaning that their foul-happy tendencies might not be a major issue.
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
Thunder +4, -110 FanDuel
Though it may seem unwise to bet against the team with the best record in the NBA, Oklahoma City is more than capable of holding their own in this matchup. The Thunder have played top-tier teams as well as anyone on their home floor, and the Celtics have been far more vulnerable on the road than they have been at TD Garden. At a minimum, Oklahoma City has the offensive firepower to take this game down to the wire against Boston. If the Thunder can defend the perimeter with any amount of success, they might even be able to secure an outright upset on Tuesday night.
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