Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors, Prediction, & Pick
Celtics vs. Warriors Odds
| Celtics Odds | -6 |
| Warriors Odds | +6 |
| Over/Under | 235 |
| Date | Tue, Dec. 19 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | TNT |
The latter half of tonight’s NBA double-header on TNT will feature Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics against Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. Entering play, the Celtics are 20-5, own the best record in the Eastern Conference, and are listed as the odds-on favorite to win the NBA Finals in June. The Warriors have struggled to a 12-14 start and find themselves on the outside of the Western Conference playoffs if the season ended today.
Ahead of tip off this evening, the Celtics are favored by 6 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 235 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Boston Celtics
We aren’t in Boston anymore
Though Boston is 20-5 overall this season and looks every bit like a title contender, they have been far less dominant on the road than they have been at home. Playing at TD Garden, they are 14-0 and have outscored their opponents by 15.7 points per 100 possessions. On the road, the Celtics are 6-5, ranking 9th in the NBA with a +0.8 Net Rating.
Even more notable is the fact that Boston has lost to weaker competition on the road, including a 121-118 loss to Charlotte and a 122-112 loss to Indiana in the last month. Simply, the Celtics are much more vulnerable on the road than they are at home.
Impact of Kristaps Porzingis
Kristaps Porzingis is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s action, but he is likely to suit up judging by his comments to local beat reporters following Sunday’s win over the Magic. Per Cleaning the Glass, Boston ranks in the 71st percentile in offensive efficiency and the 91st percentile in defensive efficiency with Porzingis on the floor this year compared to the 81st percentile in offensive efficiency and 83rd percentile in defensive efficiency when he is off of the court. Boston is 15-4 with him in the lineup and 5-1 with him in street clothes.
Though the Celtics have had success with and without Porzingis this season, it is worth noting that the team has not won a road game by more than three points since November 4 with him in the lineup.
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry looking to start a new streak
On Sunday, Stephen Curry went 0-for-8 from 3-point range against the Trail Blazers, ending a streak of 268 consecutive games with at least one made basket from beyond the arc. Asked about the streak after the game, Curry was frustrated and commented that he was well aware of the record.
The good news for Curry and the Warriors is that they have a great matchup this evening against a Boston defense that has struggled to defend the perimeter in recent weeks. Since November 20, the Celtics rank 17th in opponent 3-point attempts per game and 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage. Curry should have little trouble restarting his 3-point streak on Tuesday.
Life without Draymond Green
Since Draymond Green last played on December 12, the Warriors are 2-1 overall, with their lone loss coming to the red-hot Clippers. Even in that game, Golden State held an 8-point lead during one stretch.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Warriors rank in the 40th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 21st percentile in defensive efficiency with Green on the court this year compared to the 59th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 65th percentile in defensive efficiency in his absence.
It is possible that this team is better without one of their aging core players available.
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction
Warriors +6 (-112), FanDuel
Warriors Moneyline (+198), FanDuel
As good as the Celtics have been this year, they have been far less dominant on the road, with only a 6-5 record and the 9th-best Net Rating in the NBA. As underwhelming as the Warriors have been this season, they are still 6-6 at home, and they have actually played better with Draymond Green off of the floor. This is a matchup that suits Golden State well, making them live underdogs on Tuesday evening.
Image Credit: Getty Images