CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 2
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with everyone increasing their coverage and attention to the sport. My goal is to provide you a weekly advantage on underrated plays and roster flexibility.
Let’s check out some of the best values for week two.
Gunner Kiel – (QB) Cincinnati – DraftKings: $7,800 FanDuel: $7,600
I’m going a tad off the grid with Cincinnati players this week. I feel they’re underpriced because their salaries are based off last week’s home opener against Alabama A&M, where the starters only played one half. Also, while Cincinnati is projected to score 30 points, they aren’t in a matchup with a very appealing O/U(55). Cincinnati players should be low owned and are low priced, which is a great combination for both tournaments and cash games.
Kiel is coming off a 2014 season where he threw for over 3200 yards and 31 touchdowns (tenth in the nation). He’s lucky enough to have his top three passing targets return from last year, and they’re going to be pass-happy all season long. In regards to this week, Temple is no slouch on defense, but it’s a tough task to slow down the Cincinnati offense at home. Temple did shut down the Penn State last week, allowing only ten points, but I think that says more about Penn State than anything else.
Kiel gives you a ton of flexibility on a night slate where you want to get exposure to the more expensive running back options.
Lamar Jackson – (QB) Louisville – DraftKings: $6,100 FanDuel: $5,800
Much like last week with Matt Linehan, Lamar Jackson is the cheap QB value play of the week. He won the starting job (at least for this week) for his impressive second half performance against Auburn, and presumably faces much less resistance this week against Houston. Jackson is a dual-threat option that has an extremely high floor for his price, he ran for 100 yards and a touchdown last week in very limited action. He’s still raw as a passer, only connecting on 9 of his 20 passes, but if he keeps running like he has, the passing stats will not be something to worry about.
The season ending defensive statistics were fantastic for Houston in 2014, allowing the tenth fewest total yards per game. But, in three games against ranked/power-five conference teams, they allowed 35 points and over 450 yards of offense in each game.
With the O/U set at 55, and Louisville projected for over 30 points unless that offense completely implodes, Jackson has a nice fantasy performance in his future.
Jackson probably more of a tournament play than a cash option, but I wouldn’t knock you if you felt he gives you the best chance for points with other positions considered.
Malik Zaire – (QB) Nortre Dame – DraftKings: $7,300 FanDuel: $8,300
Zaire is a much better value on DraftKings this week than FanDuel, but I do expect him to reach value on both sites. Texas isn’t in the glory days of their prestigious program anymore, but headed into last week’s game, it was safe to say they were headed in the right direction. Zaire cleaned the floor with their defense, completing 86 percent of his passes, throwing for 313 yards, and adding in three touchdowns. He was simply fantastic. The most interesting part about last week was that he had a boring day running the ball, which is believed to be one of his strengths. I expect that to become an avenue in which he starts scoring fantasy points as well.
The O/U for this game is only 47.5, which feels low. Virginia is coming off a game where they gave up 34 points and over 500 yards of offense. Notre Dame is favored to win by 13, though, and projected in the high 20s for points, so points will be had, and at Zaire’s DraftKings price, he should hit value pretty easily.
The elephant in the room is that Tarean Folston, Notre Dame’s starting running back, is out for the season. While I do believe CJ Prosise can fill in and do a great job, this shift should throw more responsibility on Zaire’s shoulders(or legs).
On DraftKings, I like Zaire in all formats and expect him to easily surpass the value he’s priced at. FanDuel is quite a bit different, I avoid him in tournaments and probably stick to cash games.
Leonard Fournette – (RB) LSU – DraftKings: $8,800 FanDuel: $6,900
If Zaire is the value on DraftKings, Fournette is the value of the week on FanDuel. The only reason you have to not put Fournette in every lineup, is that you’re hedging off your other lineups that have him. In a non-feature role in 2014, Fournette ran for over 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. He had five 100 yard (or more) rushing games in his last nine and built momentum as his true freshman season went along.
If the quarterback position was in better shape, I would argue that Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural would eat into Fournette’s potential role. But, for a second straight year, it’s looking like the passing game is going to be a complete liability.
LSU’s opening game got canceled last week, so I wonder if that factored into the reduced price. Either way, this is a place where you have to strike. There’s a good chance you won’t see Fournette priced under $8,000 on either site for the rest of the season.
DraftKings ranking of him much more accurately represents how I feel about him this week. I still like him at that price, but it makes things quite a bit tougher.
CJ Prosise – (RB) Notre Dame – DraftKings: $5,200 FanDuel: $7,800
This week was very interesting in terms of site-to-site pricing. There were a lot of big swings, Notre Dame’s quarterback (Malik Zaire) and running back were one of them. Normally when there’s that big of a difference between the two, the cheaper price is often a great deal.
While I understand Virginia has a talented defense, they’re coming off a game where they gave up a 34 points and 500 yards of offense, and Notre Dame is arguably a top ten offense in the nation.
When Tarean Folston got injured, senior Prosise was thrust into a feature role which he performed admirably. More notable than his 20 carry 98-yard performance last week was his production in 2014. It was a small sample size, but he averaged 12.6 per carry on ten attempts and averaged 17.8 yards on his 29 receptions last year. What this tells me is that Prosise is explosive, and with a bigger role to come, there could be fireworks.
I don’t like Prosise quite as much on FanDuel because they’re making you pay up for a relatively unknown asset, but if you’re playing tournaments and are looking to diversify, he’s a great guy to take a closer look on.
Mekale Mckay – (WR) Cincinnati – DraftKings: $4,700 FanDuel: $4,800
AND
Chris Moore – (WR) Cincinnati – DraftKings: $4,300 FanDuel: $4,500
These are two of my favorite tournament plays this week, I love the talent and situation in the high-powered Cincinnati offense. I already touched on a lot of this with Gunner Kiel, but the starters only played the first half in the game against Alabama A&M.
Chris Moore was absolutely fantastic from a per reception standpoint in 2014. Averaging a Devin Smith (former Ohio State wide receiver)-like 22.4 yards per reception and scoring on 27% of those receptions. there isn’t a higher upside play at the minimum price on FanDuel.
Mekale Mckay is very similar in that he’s very good on a per reception basis. In the past two seasons, Mckay has accumulated 60 receptions, 1210 yards and 15 touchdowns. That’s a touchdown every four catches and just over 20 yards per reception. While he hasn’t been consistent game-to-game in his career, his price is very indicative of that, and perhaps even over-emphasized because of the first game(again, only played one half).
These two will surely be low owned options in tournaments, and while I don’t know which one is going to make the big plays specifically, I’m very confident ONE will. If you’re entering tournaments, you should be making more than one lineup anyway, so throwing them into separate lineups and hoping one hits is my recommendation.